NFL Analyst Buys Into Chiefs Expanding Passing Game in 2024

ESPN's Bill Barnwell thinks that after a shift to shorter passes, KC could lean in the other direction this upcoming campaign.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) against the San Francisco 49ers during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When Patrick Mahomes first burst onto the scene as the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback, he was known as one of the true big-play field generals in the league.

In years since, the two-time MVP winner has been slapped with the dreaded "game manager" label more and more. It's resulted in multiple Super Bowls, though, so is that style the best for him?

The answer likely resides somewhere in the middle. Mahomes is still capable of creating outside-the-box plays without pushing the ball downfield, but Kansas City is making a concerted effort to restore that element of its passing attack this upcoming season. While that'll take some work, one respected football mind is buying in.

In a recent article for ESPN, Bill Barnwell dove into his 2024 offseason superlatives for each AFC team. For the Chiefs, Barnwell made them the "least likely to throw the shortest passes in football again" this year. Citing the playstyle adjustment Mahomes has made, Barnwell believes it's a somewhat unprecedented move when looking at sports in general.

"With Tyreek Hill traded to the Dolphins and the various replacements the Chiefs acquired to take the star wideout's spot struggling to stay healthy or catch the ball, this has led to an absurd shift in Mahomes' style of play," Barnwell wrote. "After averaging 8.8 air yards per attempt in 2018, he averaged a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw last season. Imagine if Steph Curry emerged as the NBA's best scorer in the paint or Aaron Judge morphed into the league's best contact hitter. That's the sort of shift Mahomes has made to thrive."

Barnwell also notes that although a full rebound to the early Mahomes days might be unrealistic, there's still plenty of room to improve from where Kansas City was in 2023.

"Rashee Rice is expected to face league discipline after several off-field incidents this offseason, but even without considering the second-year wideout, the Chiefs have stocked up with speed at wide receiver," Barnwell wrote. "While they're not likely to turn back into their 2018 version, Mahomes has proved he doesn't need to be that player to thrive. After getting virtually nothing from his wide receivers a year ago, the future Hall of Famer might be able to push for his third MVP award if Brown and Worthy make an impact."

The numbers back up Barnwell's hint at Mahomes seeing a decline in pushing the ball down the field on a per-pass basis. Last year, his 6.9 adjusted net yards per attempt were a career-low mark over a full season. The same could be said for his raw yards per attempt (7.0), intended air yards per attempt (6.5) and completed air yards per attempt (2.7).

This time, however, there's more talent on the 2024 squad than the 2023 one. In addition to Rice and tight end Travis Kelce, the duo of Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Xavier Worthy will give defenses a lot more to account for. On any given down, even if Rice misses time, there figures to be a good blend of speed and route-running chops on the field. Should Kelce experience better health, things could become even more dangerous.

If Mahomes's weapons are better and his offensive line continues to hold up, it wouldn't be a surprise to see more explosive plays. Those are always the offense's goal, but schematic alterations over the years have encouraged more of a dink-and-dunk type of game plan. Kansas City's hope is that era can become a thing of the past.

Barnwell thinks a world with that reality may just come true.

Read More: Early Projection for Xavier Worthy Features Promising Rookie Numbers