Predicting the Kansas City Chiefs’ Record From 2023 NFL Schedule

Will the Kansas City Chiefs pick up where they left off last season, or will they take a step back? Let's predict their record.

Thursday night saw the NFL world find out what the league's schedule will look like for the upcoming season, and the Kansas City Chiefs' 2023 schedule sees them play in some high-profile matchups scattered throughout the year. The reigning Super Bowl champions will have a target on their backs over the course of the season, but that's nothing new to Patrick Mahomes and company.

Playing a solid mix of late-afternoon, primetime, holiday and even international outings, Kansas City has a challenging road to repeating their performance from a year ago as far as records are concerned. In the 2022-23 regular season, Andy Reid's bunch went 14-3 and locked up the top seed in the entire conference for the postseason. Can a similar record be attained this season? 

Below are game-by-game predictions of how the Chiefs' 2023-24 season will unfold. No score predictions will be made, with matchup analysis and a win/loss projection taking those places instead. Records will be tallied in a running total at the end of each game. 

Week 1: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions

Don't get it twisted: Dan Campbell's Lions are one of the hardest teams to beat in the NFL despite going just 9-8 a season ago. Detroit's high-flying offense and natural grit make it a tough combination for any opposing team to deal with. With that said, the Chiefs aren't going to lose on their banner night . . . at home . . . to kick off the 2023 NFL campaign. 

Prediction: WIN (1-0)

Week 2: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

In a rematch of last playoffs' Divisional Round game that saw Patrick Mahomes suffer a nasty ankle injury, the Chiefs will be looking to continue having success against the Jaguars. That's easier said than done, as Jacksonville projects to be one of the better teams in the AFC and has an ascending young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. Kansas City escapes with a narrow road win here, and it won't be pretty, but it doesn't have to be. 

Prediction: WIN (2-0)

Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears

Ryan Poles and the Bears have done a tremendous job of righting the ship this offseason, at least on paper. Chicago's 2023 season will depend almost entirely on how well quarterback Justin Fields progresses. While he should be better than he was last season, it's difficult to see him upsetting the Chiefs in their own backyard. Chalk this one up to a third-straight win to begin the year for Kansas City. 

Prediction: WIN (3-0)

Week 4: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets

Football fans have been waiting for a Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers matchup for years and although they've gotten close to seeing it a couple of times, the dots just haven't quite connected. A Week 4 outing in New Jersey should see it finally happen, with Rodgers now on the Jets and looking to cement his status as someone who can take New York into the contender category. This game could come down to the final possession and while it's easy to envision a Chiefs win, the Jets just might have what it takes to make a statement with a victory here. 

Prediction: LOSS (3-1)

Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

Whenever Kirk Cousins isn't playing in a primetime matchup, the opposing defense has to factor in a completely different quarterback taking the field. All jokes aside, Minnesota was a great regular-season team a year ago and having home-field advantage for this game makes it a potential "trap" of sorts for the Chiefs. This is another outing that could be close, but Mahomes and friends will ultimately get the job done. 

Prediction: WIN (4-1)

Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

The Chiefs having their first divisional game of the season six weeks into the year seems rather late, but they make up for lost time from Weeks 6-8. Hosting a Broncos team that is looking to have a resurgent 2023, this one may not be easy for either side. For at least a bit longer, though, Kansas City extends its dominance over Denver with yet another win. 

Prediction: WIN (5-1)

Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert and the Chargers are always a safe bet to give the Chiefs a run for their money, even on the road at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Los Angeles is desperate to prove that it can be a legitimate contender in both the AFC West and the AFC, but the Chiefs will be aiming to protect their home field in this one. In a contest that could be one of the best of the year, Mahomes edges out Herbert in another game to add to their storied visional rivalry. 

Prediction: WIN (6-1)

Week 8: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Playing three divisional games in a row is extremely tough on any team, let alone one in the AFC West. This is one to chalk up to the Chiefs' annual "should've won, but found a way to lose" result. The Broncos should still be hungry to figure out who they are at this point in the season and with a tough game behind them, the Chiefs might finally fall into the trap and see their streak get snapped. 

Prediction: LOSS (6-2) 

Week 9: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins

Facing old friend Tyreek Hill for the first time, the Chiefs and Dolphins will be overseas for their Frankfurt matchup. Miami, like many others in the conference, is still trying to prove that it belongs in the contender group. With a bye week in the near future, though, the Chiefs showcase enough offensive firepower to the German crowd that it results in a high-scoring win in a home game that is technically on the road. 

Prediction: WIN (7-2)

Week 11: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

A rematch of Super Bowl LVII on primetime? Things don't get much better than this, and the teams don't get much better, either. Had this game not been coming off a Chiefs bye week, it would likely result in an Eagles win with revenge on their minds. If there's one thing Andy Reid has taught everyone, however, it's to never bet against him when he has extra time to prepare. 

Prediction: WIN (8-2)

Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

No one can quite get a pulse for what direction the Raiders' season will take with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, but it doesn't appear to be a strong one. Even if Las Vegas is competitive this year, the Chiefs always bring out their best against the Raiders and will continue to do so here. 

Prediction: WIN (9-2)

Week 13: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

A year ago, whoever thought of this matchup would envision it being a Mahomes-Rodgers game. Instead, Jordan Love is facing the Chiefs for the second time in his career and is hosting them this time around in primetime. Green Bay, eager to move forward in a Rodgers-less world and scrap for an NFC playoff spot, will give Kansas City trouble here. On the other hand, Mahomes now being an experienced veteran quarterback will give him the ultimate edge on grabbing a win. 

Prediction: WIN (10-2)

Week 14: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs and Bills have met for some instant classic games in the recent past, with Buffalo treating even the regular-season matchups like playoff contests. Expect something similar here and with seeding potentially playing a role, the Bills will bring their "A" game. The gut feeling here, even on the road, says Buffalo will upset Kansas City and make things interesting in the conference playoff picture. 

Prediction: LOSS (10-3)

Week 15: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Much like with the Raiders, it's difficult to project how things will go for the Patriots in 2023. Mac Jones should be better and the nature of this matchup provides plenty of intrigue, especially when factoring in how Bill Belichick's defenses have given Mahomes some trouble at times in the past. This game reeks of a potential upset, but let's err on the side of caution and talent here. Kansas City escapes with a closer-than-expected road victory late in the season. 

Prediction: WIN (11-3)

Week 16: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Everything said about the first Raiders matchup rings true for this one as well. The only differences are that now, Kansas City will be gearing up for the postseason and Reid and Mahomes will have the advantage of being at home. This one may not be particularly close, even with Las Vegas trying to play the spoiler role. The Chiefs' Christmas gift is a victory. 

Prediction: WIN (12-3)

Week 17: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This game is similar to the Bills matchup, except turned up to 11 on the dial. Chiefs-Bengals is one of the best budding rivalries in the entire NFL, with Mahomes and Joe Burrow being perhaps the two best quarterbacks in the league and Cincinnati having plenty of team success in the past couple of seasons. This is a possible AFC Championship Game preview (again) and since it's a regular-season affair, it's hard to go against the Bengals given the recent history between these two clubs. 

Prediction: LOSS (12-4)

Week 18: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Standing at 12-4 heading into this game, the No. 1 seed in the AFC could still be in play if the Chiefs win this game. Knowing that, it's hard to see Reid resting his starters in a game that might have several implications on his team's presumed path through the playoffs. This should be another thriller of a Chiefs-Chargers matchup, but Kansas City gets the edge on the road to kick off 2024 in style.

Prediction: WIN (13-4)