Rashee Rice Named 'Breakout' Fantasy Football Candidate

One analyst believes that despite some things he can't control, Rice could still deliver tremendous fantasy value in his second season.

Jul 26, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs the ball during training camp at Missouri Western State University. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

If the Kansas City Chiefs don't have wide receiver Rashee Rice last season, they don't get to or win Super Bowl LVIII. That's how important of a piece the then-rookie was, as his evolution throughout the 2023-24 season played an integral role in the (eventual) success of the offense when it mattered most.

Following an offseason filled with investments at the wideout spot, is Rice as critical of a cog in the machine this time around? Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Xavier Worthy will surely eat into some of his targets, making Kansas City's attack a more well-rounded one. How will Rice follow up a year that saw him post 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns? That's one of the burning questions surrounding the Chiefs as the regular season approaches.

Of course, it's still possible that Rice is suspended for part of the 2024 campaign. Nothing substantial has developed on that front in a while, though, so it's more of an idea than something to expect right now. With that in mind, the former second-round pick should provide serious fantasy football value in his sophomore season with the Chiefs. One outlet thinks he's set for another nice year.

In an article for Pro Football Focus, Nathan Jahnke named three young receivers who could have "breakout" efforts this year. Rice headlined the list, as Jahnke believes the SMU product will still be quite effective despite questions about target share and the possibility of a suspension.

"If Rice can maintain his 25.5% target rate with increased snaps, it would be excellent for his fantasy value," Jahnke wrote. "However, it might decrease slightly as the Chiefs emphasize deep throws more often. Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs."

With the additions of Brown and Worthy, it'll be tougher to play straight-up man coverage against the Chiefs. That's music to Rice's ears, as he averaged a staggering 2.88 yards per route run (YPRR) against zone coverage in 2023 compared to a 1.79 mark against man. Alignment versatility is a big thing, too, and Jahnke noted that Rice's blend of traditional X and slot reps is "the best combination of roles a wide receiver can have" for success.

As a rookie, Rice did the majority of his damage either behind the line of scrimmage or on short-range routes. As the season advanced, however, he began to flash more in the intermediate area on crossers and other longer-developing concepts. His 2.63 YPR on go routes and 2.28 YPRR on crossers are evidence of that, and Kansas City hopes that continued growth is in store this year.

Following a five-target preseason outing against the Detroit Lions over the weekend, quarterback Patrick Mahomes said he thinks Rice will be at his best in 2024.

"I think he's going to be a lot better this year, honestly," Mahomes began. "Just the way he's able to run routes, it was coming along at the end of last year, but he worked on it this whole offseason and he's in great shape, he's coming in, he's running great routes. I mean, even one of the plays I looked to the left and it wasn't covered and he was kind of the back-side, and he won against a guy [in] man-to-man coverage, caught the ball and makes the positive play, and those are the little things that I think he's going to continue to get better and better at."

A lot of the drawbacks with Rice, from a fantasy perspective, have more to do with things he can't control than what he can. At this point, he's one of many viable options on offense instead of a downright essential piece. The suspension timeline, if one even gets announced, is up to the league. All Rice can do is focus on making the most of his opportunities on the field.

Luckily for him, as Jahnke expanded on, that could make him an underrated fantasy add as he enters year two.

Read More: Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes React to Xavier Worthy's Big Day vs. Lions