Should Chiefs Lean Into the Run Game Against the Bengals?
A week after facing their 2023 AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs face their 2021 and 2022 AFC Championship Game opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals.
Unlike the Chiefs, the Bengals are coming off a loss (and a surprising one, to say the least). They struggled to defend the New England Patriots' rushing attack in that game. Though the Chiefs tend to be a pass-heavy team, if there were to be a week to lean into the run game more, it could be this one.
Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots' lead back, had 25 carries in Week 1 and totaled 120 yards, a 4.8 yards-per-carry clip. A staggering 118 of Stevenson's rushing yards came after contact. That could speak to early-season tackling woes, but only two other backs had over 90 yards after contact in Week 1. Of the 18 backs to have at least 15 carries, the percentage of Stevenson's yards to come after contact far exceeds the rest of the pack.
The Patriots had so much success on the ground by attacking the Bengals' secondary, specifically by running outside or wide run concepts. According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots ran for 110 yards outside the tackles on 19 carries, which equates to 5.8 yards per carry. Allowing that would have been the worst mark in the league in 2023 by almost a whole yard.
Isiah Pacheco ranked 12th in the league last year among running backs in PFF's missed tackles forced stat. He forced a missed tackle at a lower rate than Stevenson in 2023, but only by 2%. Pacheco's forceful running style can be used to significant effect this week. Kansas City should have an advantage if they can get Pacheco out in space against Cincinnati's defensive backs. He can turn short or medium gains into long gains, putting the Bengals in a difficult position.
Running the ball could also help the Chiefs' offensive line in the passing game. In the season's opening game, Kansas City's line left plays on the table. The interior didn't play to its full capability, including Joe Thuney who was in his first action since last season's pec injury. Also, rookie Kingsley Suamataia played below average. It was the first game of his career against a very good defense, but the hope was he'd look a bit better in his first action.
As a draft prospect, Suamataia showed off his exceptional upper body strength and how he paired that with his athleticism to move guys in the run game. He got moving on some runs in his first career game. However, getting more runs to help him settle down can help him feel more comfortable in pass protection, especially with Trey Hendrickson on the other side of the ball. Hendrickson is better than any pass rusher Suamataia faced last Thursday. If the Chiefs make Hendrickson have to play the run honestly, that should help Suamataia hold up when he's left alone in pass protection.
The Chiefs are good enough to win this game by playing their typical style of football. Still, if they are able to establish the run – specifically early – this could be a comfortable outing considering how the Bengals looked in their opening game of the year.