The Chiefs vs. Jaguars Storyline That No One Is Talking About

The Chiefs and Jaguars had high expectations going into the season, and a Week 2 matchup doesn't minimize the importance of this game to either team.

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to get back on track Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is a rematch of an AFC Divisional Round game from last season, an outing in which Patrick Mahomes went down with an ankle injury near the end of the first half. Chad Henne would lead a touchdown drive, and a hobbled Mahomes would finish the game in the second half as the Chiefs went on to win 27-20. Of course, that led to the Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game for a fifth straight season and winning their second Super Bowl in four seasons.

The Jaguars were seen as a team on the rise last year. After a very ugly season under former head coach Urban Meyer in 2021, a protege of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid named Doug Pederson took over the team and turned their franchise around. Young quarterback and rising star Trevor Lawrence stepped up his game in year two of his career. The Jaguars were able to win their division by beating the Tennessee Titans in the final week of the regular season last year.

This year, both the Chiefs and Jaguars were projected to win the AFC West and AFC South, respectively. On paper, each team has a fairly difficult schedule this season. Even though this matchup is taking place early in the season, there could be playoff seeding implications on the line if the season plays out the way both of these teams intended before the campaign began.

The Chiefs were the odds-on favorites to win the AFC again this season, but the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals had the next best odds to win the AFC, ahead of the Jaguars. For Chiefs fans, considering the loss last week, you have to feel good about where your team is at after Week 1. The Bengals and Bills also lost, and their losses were even uglier than the Chiefs' Thursday night opener. Jaguars fans have to feel good about being one of the top AFC contenders to start the season 1-0. Here’s where the seeding can come into play.

The Bengals and Bills lost to division rivals. When a team in the AFC loses to another team that is in the AFC rather than a team like the Chiefs, who lost to an NFC team, it dings them in the tiebreaker category at the end of the season. If all tiebreakers end up the same, it will come down to having more conference losses.

Of course, the biggest seeding placement comes from head-to-head meetings. Last year, the Chiefs lost their head-to-head meetings with the Bengals and Bills but ended up with a better record than both of them and were able to secure the one-seed. If either the Bills or Bengals would've had the same record as the Chiefs, Kansas City would have dropped to the two-seed and not received the lone bye that comes with clinching the top overall spot.

This week’s game could play into the tiebreaker by the time the regular season comes to an end. If the Chiefs win, they will have a big advantage over the Jaguars as the season progresses and as playoff scenarios are being broken down. If the Jaguars win, that will not be good news for the Chiefs. They would fall to 0-2 for only the second time in the Reid era (and the first time in the Mahomes era) and would be two games behind the Jaguars and while also losing the tiebreaker. 

There’s also the pesky stat that since 1990, only 12% of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. Last year, Cincinnati was able to overcome it and make it all the way to the AFC title game. On the flip side, 65% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs. Last year, all six teams (Chiefs, Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Miami Dolphins) that started 2-0 qualified. This is a critical game for both teams.

The Chiefs will have defensive tackle Chris Jones back in the mix after a lengthy holdout ended this past week. Jones will be inspired to play the best football of his career this season with many incentives on the line. He needs to start out well against the Jaguars, as he already missed one game toward reaching the incentive-laden goals in his new contract.

The Chiefs are also set to add All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce to the mix. He will be a much-welcomed sight for Mahomes. After the wide receivers dealt with some drop issues in Week 1, there is a hope that Kelce will bring some calming vibes to the field as the Chiefs look to get back to the high-powered offense they are capable of becoming once again.

For being such an early matchup in the season, there is a lot on the line this Sunday between the Chiefs and Jaguars. I’m putting my money on Mahomes and company rising to the occasion, getting their first win of the season, and flipping the narrative back in their favor moving forward. 

Read More: Chiefs vs. Jaguars — 5 Questions and Week 2 Prediction