How Many Touchdowns Will Tyreek Hill Score in 2020?

As we continue our series looking at Kansas City Chiefs prop bets for the upcoming season, Tyreek Hill’s receiving touchdown total is set at 8.5 by Caesars Casino and Sportsbook in New Jersey.

As we continue our series looking at Kansas City Chiefs prop bets for the upcoming season, Tyreek Hill’s receiving touchdown total is set at 8.5 by Caesars Casino and Sportsbook in New Jersey.

In 2018, Hill recorded a career-high 12 touchdown catches. Last season, Hill’s total fell to seven touchdown grabs. With Caesars setting the over/under at 8.5, I’m going to take the under.

I know, I know, life is too short to take the under. It’s more fun to cheer for Tyreek Hill to catch nine touchdown passes than to hope he doesn’t.

For the sake of the Chiefs, I hope he does catch more than eight touchdowns. I hope Hill has a similar year to 2018 where in addition to his 12 touchdowns, he recorded 1,479 receiving yards.

But here’s why I think that won’t happen:

In Hill’s career season, 2018, he was targeted 137 times in 16 games. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins only played in 10 games and the only other options for quarterback Patrick Mahomes were Demarcus Robinson and Chris Conley. The duo of Robinson and Conley was targeted 85 total times.

Of course, we can’t forget about the targets given to positions outside of wide receiver. Tight end Travis Kelce received the most targets in 2018, but not by many. Despite that, Hill was still the Chiefs' leading receiver and had as many touchdowns as Kelce.

Last season was a different story for Hill. He suffered a couple of injuries that sidelined him, resulting in a lower number of targets. HIll’s 2018 season made defenses pay more attention to him in the passing game. As defenses started to account for him, others began to get open. Watkins played in four more games than he did a year ago and the addition of Mecole Hardman added a second deep threat.

Because Kansas City is returning 20 of its 22 starters from last year including all of their receiving corps, not to mention the addition of pass-catching running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it’s hard to think Hill will find the endzone more than he did last season. There just aren’t enough catches to go around.