Week 12 AFC Playoff Picture: Big Week Ahead for KC Chiefs and Conference Peers

Kansas City is still in a good spot coming off a loss but needs to right the ship this weekend.

Losses are never positive, but the Kansas City Chiefs are at least somewhat fortunate for the nature of two of their three defeats in 2023.

Aside from a Denver Broncos loss within the AFC West, Andy Reid's bunch has a pair of unfavorable outcomes from outside the conference. That helps avoid tiebreaker scenarios getting trickier, as Kansas City has generally taken care of business in the games that factor in a bit more. A Sunday afternoon matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders is yet another key outing, as it will undoubtedly have some sort of impact on both the division and interconference playoff races. 

With the postseason beginning to take more of a focus, which teams are threats to Kansas City in the conference? Are there any clubs set to potentially rise or fall in the coming weeks? Let's take a look at the Week 12 AFC playoff picture and find out.

1: Miami Dolphins (8-3)

A few things can be true regarding the Dolphins right now. On one hand, Mike McDaniel is a fantastic coach and is dialing up perhaps the NFL's most lethal offensive attack. Miami's defense is also improving as the season goes on. On the other hand, the Dolphins haven't defeated a single team with a winning record this year and still need to prove themselves before being bought into as top-shelf contenders. The AFC is in wait-and-see mode with Miami because if things break right, this can still be a potential conference representative in the Super Bowl.

2: Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

If there was ever a year for Lamar Jackson to finally put his playoff demons to rest and make a serious run in the AFC, this would be it. Not only do the Ravens have one of the best rushing attacks and defenses in the league, but Jackson is playing better football in 2023 than he has in the past couple of seasons. Baltimore's three losses have been by a combined 12 points, highlighting how competitive and feisty this team truly is. A Sunday Night Football game against the Los Angeles Chargers is a big one before a bye week.

3: Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)

Despite their Week 11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Chiefs are still in fine shape. They won't have to deal with a head-to-head tiebreaker over Baltimore this year and their conference record is better, so the path to securing the AFC's No. 1 seed is still controlled by Kansas City. The aforementioned Raiders game on the road is critical because a loss not only impacts the conference playoff picture, but it also lets Las Vegas creep back into the divisional race just a little bit. 

4: Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)

Even with some offensive line concerns and plenty of inconsistency along the way, the Jaguars find themselves right in the thick of things entering the weekend. Boasting the sixth-ranked DVOA defense in all of football, Doug Pederson's squad merely needs to elevate its offensive play just a bit in order to become dangerous down the stretch. Up this week is a game against the Houston Texans, which has divisional implications and more on the line.

5: Cleveland Browns (7-3)

Even with a revolving door quarterback plan and mostly subpar play from the position this season, the Browns find themselves at 7-3 through 10 games. That in and of itself is a serious accomplishment, made possible by perhaps the top defense in the entire league. It's hard to consider Cleveland a serious contender because of the lack of elite talent at quarterback, but the team just finds ways to win games. With remaining games against Denver, Jacksonville and Houston, there's still plenty to play for. 

6: Houston Texans (6-4)

Did anyone have "MVP candidate CJ Stroud" or "potential playoff team Houston Texans" on their bingo card before the year? If so, it might be time to purchase a lottery ticket. In all seriousness, the Texans' offense is a fun and dynamic unit led by a signal-caller who plays like someone well beyond his years. DeMeco Ryans' team is no longer just a competitive bad one — it has its eyes seriously set on making the postseason. This weekend's game against Jacksonville could alter both teams' 2023 campaigns. 

7: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)

Usually, when a team fires a key coordinator during the year, it can lead to the season unraveling. For the Steelers, though, it's hard to see their offense being much worse in a post-Matt Canada world. Pittsburgh has a big-time game against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals this weekend then games versus the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots thereafter. This three-game stretch of very winnable contests will either help Mike Tomlin keep his above .500 streak alive, or it will knock the Steelers out of the playoff picture. 

Close but no cigar: Buffalo Bills (6-5), Indianapolis Colts (5-5), Denver Broncos (5-5), Cincinnati Bengals (5-5), Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

The Bills are another team that could be dangerous in the aftermath of firing their offensive coordinator in-season. Outside of them, the Broncos are winners of four in a row after starting the year 1-5. One of those victories was against the Chiefs, which makes them a noteworthy addition here. Everyone else either has their starting quarterback on the shelf for the year (Indianapolis and Cincinnati) or needs another win or two before being taken seriously (Las Vegas).

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