Week 17 AFC Playoff Picture: Chiefs Hoping for Some Help

Kansas City's Christmas Eve win helped maintain their standing in race for the AFC playoffs.

The Kansas City Chiefs' Christmas Eve win over the Seattle Seahawks not only secured Andy Reid's squad another 12-win season, but it also allowed the team to keep ahold of its current standing in the AFC playoff field.

With just two games left to play for every team in the league, division and wild card races are beginning to tighten up. The margin for error is remarkably slim, even for high-ranking teams like Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes and company have a Week 17 matchup against the Denver Broncos coming up and will close out the 2022 regular season in Las Vegas against the Raiders, so let's take a look at where they stack up beforehand compared to the rest of the AFC in an updated playoff picture. 

1. Buffalo Bills (12-3)

Coming off a 22-point win over the Chicago Bears despite Josh Allen not playing his best game, the Buffalo Bills flexed their muscles as one of the best teams in football on Saturday. Because of a Week 6 win against the Chiefs, Sean McDermott's team has a tiebreaker over Kansas City for the top seed in the conference and will be looking to hold on to that spot on Monday Night Football as the Cincinnati Bengals come to visit. A loss and a Chiefs win could cause Buffalo to drop down to the No. 3 spot, whereas a win would keep the Bills at the one-seed. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-3)

The Chiefs controlled their playoff destiny after a Week 12 win over the Los Angeles Rams, but a loss the following week to the Bengals allowed the Bills to leapfrog them once again in the conference standings. Now, all Kansas City can do is take care of business and hope that Cincinnati can defeat Buffalo on Monday. That would allow the Chiefs to reclaim the No. 1 spot, but a loss and a Bengals win would make the Chiefs the three-seed. This week's slate of games is very important for the entire top three. 

3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

Considering their current ranking, no one has more to gain atop the list than the Bengals. Joe Burrow has led them to 11 wins on the year but with win No. 12 and a Chiefs loss this weekend (the aforementioned win over Kansas City is a tiebreaker), that would make Cincinnati the new one-seed in the AFC. A loss, though, complicates things and could allow the Baltimore Ravens to swap places with them in the AFC North. This week's matchup at home against the Bills is a pivotal one for Zac Taylor's team, as it could help shape the playoff path of several other teams in the process. 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8)

Riding high after winning three games in a row, the Jacksonville Jaguars have transformed from a 4-8 team whose season and playoff hopes were seemingly on life support to a group that would be the AFC South champs if the season ended today. Because of their Week 14 win over the Tennessee Titans that started this streak, Doug Pederson's Jaguars have a tiebreaker over their rivals. The division could come down to a season-ending Week 18 rematch, so there's still a ton to play for in Duval County. 

5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

Despite having won three of their last four games, it's been relatively tough sledding for the Ravens as of late. With quarterback Lamar Jackson still nursing a knee injury, the Tyler Huntley-led offense (predictably) just hasn't looked the same. The hope for Baltimore is that Jackson can return either this week or next in order to get his legs back under him before the playoffs arrive, but it remains to be seen whether the Ravens can find their mojo again. They have a lot left in front of them this season, so weathering the storm would be advantageous.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)

Brandon Staley's Los Angeles Chargers dominated the Indianapolis Colts en route to a 20-3 win, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2018. Behind young star quarterback Justin Herbert, Los Angeles' wild card standing serves as both a reminder of how inconsistent this group can be but also a warning to the rest of the league that this could be a spoiler team in the coming weeks. With back-to-back matchups against lowly teams remaining on the regular-season schedule, it's all about playing for seeding and staying healthy for the Chargers. 

7. Miami Dolphins (8-7)

The Miami Dolphins held a scorching 8-3 record at one point, but Mike McDaniel's squad has lost its last four games and is now all the way down at 8-7. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the NFL's concussion protocol early in the week and a road outing against the still-alive New England Patriots coming up, things could get very scary if the Dolphins don't snap out of their cold spell soon. It doesn't get a great deal easier to end the season, as the New York Jets boast one of the best defenses in all of football. Miami once looked like a second-tier contender in the AFC, but now Tyreek Hill and company are scrapping to simply hang on to their playoff spot. 

The Rest: New England Patriots (7-8), New York Jets (7-8), Tennessee Titans (7-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8), Las Vegas Raiders (6-9)

This list of teams has various strengths and weaknesses, as well as differing chances of making the playoffs. The Raiders and Steelers are firmly on the outside looking in, with the Jets also needing a good deal of help in order to get in. Tennessee has a fair shot due to that Week 18 game against Jacksonville, and New England currently boasts a 19% chance of securing a wild card spot per FiveThirtyEight. Of this group, a healthy Titans team (which isn't the case right now) would likely be the greatest threat to the Chiefs. 

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