What Travis Kelce Can Do to Become the Greatest Tight End of All Time

Tony Gonzalez is arguably the greatest tight end ever, but Travis Kelce can surpass him as the greatest in Chiefs' history and make a run at the greatest of all time. Here's how.

Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs gave soon-to-be 31-year old tight end Travis Kelce a new contract, paying him up to $57 million and keeping him in Kansas City through his age-36 season. On Monday, I explored the aging curve of three other all-time great tight ends — Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and, yes, Tony Gonzalez — and found that Kelce should remain productive throughout the length of his new deal, assuming he can stay healthy, because, spoiler alert, Travis Kelce is an all-time great tight end too.

On this week's episode of It's Always Sunny In Chiefs Kingdom, though, co-host Taylor Witt and I tackled a different Kelce-related question — after breaking down the deal itself and the other hot news of the week, that is. Elite listener "The Elite Duck" asked us what Travis Kelce would have to do to become the greatest tight end in Chiefs' history. We answered.

While Gonzalez got his NFL start early, playing a full season as a rookie at age 21, Kelce was a late-bloomer, missing his rookie year due to injury and not making his NFL debut until age 25. So while Gonzalez played his last season as a Chief at age 32 — just one year older than Kelce will be this October — he's played nearly twice as many games in red and gold as Kelce has. Still, Kelce's numbers aren't nearly as far behind as you might expect:

Despite nearly twice as many targets, Gonzalez has less than twice as many yards in a Chiefs uniform as Kelce does. With Kelce slated to play another 96 games over his next deal, using the crudest form of statistical projection — doubling Kelce's numbers from his first 96 games — we get the following:

Gonzalez would still have the edge in touchdowns, barely, but Kelce would shatter his franchise-record receiving yardage mark by nearly 2,000 yards, and his record 916 receptions by nearly a hundred. 

Of course, this method of projection is totally unscientific. It doesn't account for the aging curve — Kelce will very likely regress at least somewhat as he enters the second half of his career. And it doesn't account for the possibility that Kelce — like Gonzalez — might be utilized somewhat differently in his older age. Gonzalez saw a marked uptick in targets after age 30, but was being targeted closer to the line of scrimmage. Were Kelce to see a similar change, his reception totals might rise, while his receiving yardage might fall. 

There's also the distinct possibility that Kelce's red zone numbers, which have been pedestrian, improve. After all, Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback. In 67 games with Alex Smith as his quarterback, including four playoff games, Kelce caught just 23 touchdown passes. In 35 games with Mahomes, including five playoff games, he already has 19. 

Kelce passing Gonzalez as the Chiefs' all-time leading receiver is certainly possible, perhaps even probable, but even if Kelce falls short of 10,940 regular season receiving yards, his postseason success will push him past Gonzalez in the hearts of fans. Gonzalez, through no fault of his own, never won a playoff game as a member of the Chiefs; Kelce already has a Super Bowl ring, with more perhaps on the way. That, combined with prolific regular season production, will make Kelce the greatest tight end in Chiefs' history, if it hasn't already.

But does Kelce have a chance at becoming the greatest tight end of all time? 

The parameters of GOATdom can be somewhat hard to pin down for a position like tight end. Gonzalez is first all-time in receptions and yards at the position (and third and sixth all-time, respectively, at any position), and second in touchdowns by a tight end (eighth overall) behind Antonio Gates. He had a remarkable peak (four 1,000-yard seasons, tied for most by a TE), and incredible longevity (17 seasons and 270 games played). The only thing missing from Gonzalez's resume is postseason success.

That's where a player like Rob Gronkowski enters the conversation. Gronk is 28th all-time in touchdowns with 79,  in third at the tight end position, 32 behind Gonzalez and 37 behind Gates. Gronkowski did this in just 115 career games (so far), giving him arguably the greatest peak of any tight end in history. He also won three Super Bowls with the Patriots and came out of retirement to chase another ring with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. If you value peak and postseason over longevity, Gronk has an argument as the greatest tight end ever.

It's hard to make an argument for anyone else. Gates has the most touchdowns of any tight end, but has only five more than Gonzalez, while finishing with nearly 4,000 fewer receiving yards and, like Gonzalez, no rings. Marv Fleming has a record four rings as a tight end, but just 1,823 career receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. Shannon Sharpe has three rings, like Gronkowski, and over 10,000 yards, but fewer touchdowns than Gronk despite playing nearly twice as many games. 

To wrest the title of GOAT tight end from either Gonzalez or Gronkowski, Travis Kelce has work to do:

Kelce is at a pronounced disadvantage, having not played his first season until age 25. Gronkowski has already retired once, dealt with several major injuries in his career, and still has 19 games played on Kelce despite the two being just six months apart in age. Gonzalez, entering the NFL at age 21, played 158 games before his 31st birthday. Given his late start, Kelce faces extremely long odds to reach the career totals of Gonzalez, and never quite reached the same peak as Gronkowski. But there is a pathway to GOATdom for Kelce, and it runs directly between these two titans.

First, Kelce must continue to produce at a high level through his current deal with the Chiefs, which ends with his age-36 season. If Kelce can average a modest 800 yards per season over the next six seasons, he'll hit 11,265 by the time his current contract expires. That would be good for third all-time for tight ends behind Gonzalez and Jason Witten. Kelce has averaged .39 touchdowns per game thus far in his career, but .54 per game with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. If he maintains that .54 touchdown rate over the next six years, he'll be on pace to add 52 touchdowns to his resume, giving him 89. That would rank third on the all-time tight end list, ahead of Gronkowski (though Gronkowski will look to add to his 76 in Tampa).

If Kelce can get to top three in both yards and touchdowns at the position, a not-unrealistic goal, what would put him over the top? After all, he'd still be behind Gonzalez in both categories. The answer, of course, is postseason success. Gronkowski and Sharpe have the most rings of any Hall of Fame tight end with three apiece (the aforementioned Marv Fleming has four, but is not in the Hall). If Kelce can win two more Super Bowls, while achieving the statistical benchmarks discussed above, it would give him a strong case as the greatest of all time at the position: more statistical output and greater longevity than Gronkowski, more postseason success than Gonzalez.