Would the Chiefs Pursuing Michael Thomas Actually Make Sense?

If the former NFL receiving leader hits the open market, should Kansas City pursue him?

Last offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs shocked the football world when they traded star wide receiver for Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and subsequently opted to renovate their wideout room in a major way. While something to that effect isn't expected this spring, there could still be quite a few changes coming Kansas City's way as far as pass-catchers are concerned. 

The leader of the receiver room in 2022-23, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is slated to be a free agent. Behind him, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman are also set to hit the open market when the new league year begins. That leaves a potential trio of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (whose contract can be gotten out of if the team so chooses), Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney in the fold. It's entirely possible that one or multiple of the aforementioned free agents will be brought back, but the door is left wide open for quite a bit of uncertainty as things stand in late February.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas has already drawn some buzz as a potential target for the Chiefs this offseason. Not only is his contract situation in the Big Easy difficult to see the team dealing with long-term, but his now-deleted criticism of the NFL medical realm and contrasting praise of the Chiefs' training staff only adds fuel to that fire: 

Congratulations ✊🏾 Travis Kelce said amazing things about you guys when I picked his brain on my ankle injury. He said you guys did everything and more! Respect

— Michael Thomas (@Cantguardmike) February 18, 2023

Thomas, who has been limited to just 10 games played over the past three seasons, has witnessed his reputation take a serious hit due to injuries to his ankle, hamstring and toe. The former second-round pick hasn't quite resembled the same player who led the NFL in receptions and yards back in 2019, and that season's Offensive Player of the Year award winner could be on the move in the very near future as a result.

Back in January, it was reported by Field Yates of ESPN that Thomas agreed to a restructured contract with the Saints. As a result of that process, Thomas's 2023 base salary was reduced from $15.5 million to $1.165M with his roster bonus for the following league year spiking to a staggering $31.8M. That roster bonus becomes guaranteed on March 17 of this year, prompting many to believe that there's a near-certain chance that Thomas gets cut before that money officially hits guaranteed status.

A world in which Thomas plays for the Saints in 2023 exists, although it's tough to picture at this juncture. As things currently stand, he has an unfathomable cap hit of over $59M in 2024. New Orleans would incur a $26.2M cap hit by releasing him straight-up, but choosing to designate him as a post-June 1 cut can preserve a bit of the franchise's already-limited financial flexibility moving forward. Trading Thomas doesn't appear to be a likely option in light of the restructured contract, so it's fair to expect the veteran to enter the free-agent pool along with players like Smith-Schuster, Hardman, Odell Beckham Jr. and others. 

With that in mind, would it make sense for the Chiefs to pursue him? The answer is complicated, as it consists of clear benefits and drawbacks that the team would have to consider ahead of the 2023 campaign.

On one hand, Thomas was perhaps the most productive wide receiver in the league the last time he was truly healthy. His ability to be sure-handed and thrive in the short and intermediate areas of the field would be huge boosts in a Chiefs offense that could use another reliable weapon. From a mileage standpoint, Thomas is also far from ancient. As of the publishing of this article, he has yet to reach his 30th birthday. Pro Football Focus projects a one-year deal worth $12.5M would be what he nets, which leaves some wiggle room. Kansas City inked Smith-Schuster to an incentive-laden deal just a year ago when he was coming off an injury-riddled season, and something similar for Thomas wouldn't necessarily be out of the question.

On the other hand, it's been three seasons since anyone has seen Thomas at his best. He looked solid to begin the 2022 campaign, but that three-game sample size isn't worth taking with anything other than a grain of salt. His health isn't just a concern — it's a yellow light, a stop sign and a red flag all in one. While he'll "only" be 30 this coming season, that's also an age where most receivers begin to experience quite the drop-off in their production and athleticism. For someone who's effectively been on the shelf for most of the last three seasons, that doesn't bode particularly well for Thomas.

Thomas's pure talent is undeniable. If things break right for him in 2023, he doesn't have to be the 2019 or even 2018 version of himself in order to resurrect his on-field image. It's possible that all he needs is a change of scenery and some good fortune in order to rebound to a certain degree. Conversely, three seasons is an eternity in a "what have you done for me lately?" league. It would be shocking to see a team put all of its eggs in the Thomas basket without having contingency plans on the roster and/or financial routes to exercising damage control. Anything other than that makes no sense.

For the Chiefs' purposes, they can go after Thomas without it being considered a bad move. If they decide to, though, they must be willing to draw a line in the sand regarding what and how much they offer. Additionally, they'd need to continue insulating the wide receiver room with another less risky acquisition (even if it's merely re-signing Smith-Schuster). All of this is contingent on Thomas actually becoming a free agent, of course, but if there's one thing the Chiefs have shown in the past 12 months, it's that the NFL shouldn't rule them out of any possibility.

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