How the Chiefs Can Clinch a Playoff Berth in Week 13 – Starting with Help on Thanksgiving

The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth in Week 13 with a bit of help from around the AFC.

Oct 27, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 entering their Week 13 matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday, and the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions could officially punch their ticket to the playoffs before the weekend even arrives.

While the Chiefs can't officially clinch the AFC West in Week 13 due to solid seasons from the 7–4 Los Angeles Chargers and 7–5 Denver Broncos, Kansas City can guarantee a trip to the postseason with a win over the Raiders and a bit of help from around the AFC.

How the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth in Week 13

As officially noted by the NFL, the Chiefs have four paths to playoff berths in Week 13, and three begin with a win over Las Vegas on Friday.

1. Chiefs win, Dolphins lose or tie

The only way the Chiefs can secure their playoff berth by Friday evening is by following this path. The Miami Dolphins must lose to (or tie with) the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving night in the holiday's prime time matchup to give KC a chance to leave Las Vegas with a playoff spot. If the 5–6 Dolphins fall to 5–7 and the Chiefs take care of business against the Raiders on Friday, the Chiefs clinch a playoff spot before the weekend even begins.

2. Chiefs win, Broncos lose

The Broncos won't take the field until Monday night when they host the Cleveland Browns. If the Chiefs beat the Raiders and Denver falls to Cleveland, the Chiefs secure their spot.

3. Chiefs win, Chargers lose, Broncos tie

A Chiefs win and Chargers loss alone would not secure a spot for Kansas City — this unlikely scenario would require a Chiefs win, a Chargers loss, and a Broncos tie against the Browns. It's worth noting that scenario No. 2, a Chiefs win and Broncos loss, seems much more likely than the Broncos tying while also relying on the Chargers to lose to the 6–5 Atlanta Falcons.

4. Chiefs tie, Dolphins lose

If this is the way the Chiefs secure their playoff spot, I can't see how Chiefs players, coaches or fans could possibly feel good about this turn of events.

What's the most likely outcome?

Judging by my own expectations for this collection of teams and reflecting most odds for the relevant games, only the first two scenarios are worth keeping in mind for the time being. If the Dolphins lose on Thanksgiving, the Chiefs just need to beat the Raiders to clinch a playoff berth. If the Dolphins upset the Packers in prime time and Kansas City defeats Las Vegas, a Broncos loss to Cleveland would give KC a guaranteed spot.

If the Chiefs lose to the Raiders or if Miami, KC and Denver all win their Week 13 matchups, the Chiefs will have to wait at least one more week to puch their ticket.

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