An Underwhelming Tyrann Mathieu Market Would Be Great for the Chiefs

If Mathieu's free agency offers are low, that could pave the way for a return to Kansas City.

Heading into the offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tyrann Mathieu had made very little — if any — updated progress on a contract extension for the All-Pro safety. With free agency set to begin in just over a week, that's still the case. General manager Brett Veach previously spoke about Mathieu's status with the team, which is one that shouldn't change much until the open market dictates what the 29-year-old is worth. 

Over the weekend, it was reported by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network that the market may be a bit different than what many expected.

From the NFL Combine on Sunday, Rapoport spoke on several aspects surrounding Mathieu. In addition to touching on his Chiefs-specific value as a team leader and a great player, Rapoport also brought up what Mathieu's expected salary could look like in free agency. His choice of words was very interesting. 

From our NFL Combine coverage: A look at some of the key DB storylines in free agency, including the value (money-wise and locker room-wise) of the Honey Badger. pic.twitter.com/tEsidChGJd

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 6, 2022

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs free safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) reacts to play against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

My understanding is he's going to test the market. I guess there is a chance he's back in Kansas City, but they have so many priorities. I know he is a huge, huge part of their team. We'll see what kind of competition they get from elsewhere. [He] still can play at a really high level but, really, it is the leadership that the 'Honey Badger' can bring into any locker room. He is going to be coveted... probably breaks double-digits as far as his next salary. - Rapoport

In terms of millions, a double-digit salary would net Mathieu an average annual value of $10 million at the very least. That should go without saying, though, as Mathieu's original contract with the Chiefs already checked in at an average of $14M. At the conclusion of the 2021 campaign, a whopping 14 safeties were making at least $10M per year on their active deals. "Probably breaks double-digits" doesn't strike the tone of a vote of confidence for a player who is looking to cash out this spring.

Last offseason, the Minnesota Vikings signed star safety Harrison Smith to a four-year extension worth $64M. Smith was 32 at the time of his signing, and Mathieu will likely still be 29 when he signs his next contract. The 4/64 pact was generally viewed as a baseline for the beginnings of a Mathieu negotiation, but that's a far cry from "probably" breaking into the $10M-per-year range. 

Perhaps Rapoport misspoke when breaking down Mathieu's case in regards to his projected worth as a free agent. If he didn't, that could play to the Chiefs' advantage in a major way. With plenty of other holes to fill this offseason, Kansas City getting Mathieu back at a discounted rate relative to expectation could kill two birds with one stone. Not only would they be avoiding the need to bring in a new safety, but they'd also retain arguably their most important defensive player. Even if Mathieu does exceed the $10M mark on his new average salary, that low bar leaves plenty of room for maneuvering on the Chiefs' side.

There's still plenty of reason to proceed with caution, though. It's still entirely possible that Mathieu does receive a monstrous offer to the tune of anywhere between $16M and $18M per season over three or four years in length. Should that be the case, the Chiefs would almost surely be out of those sweepstakes. On the other hand, Rapoport's recent reporting might just breathe new life into what's been a bleak outlook on the situation. An underwhelming market would be devastating to Mathieu, a player who has earned a right to one last "big" contract, but it would be music to the Chiefs' ears.

Aug 20, 2021; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs free safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) looks on against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports