2020 Colts Fantasy Preview: What to Do About Philip Rivers, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton

AllColts writer/fantasy expert Jake Arthur makes his site debut with his NFL fantasy takes on the Indianapolis Colts.
2020 Colts Fantasy Preview: What to Do About Philip Rivers, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton
2020 Colts Fantasy Preview: What to Do About Philip Rivers, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton /

INDIANAPOLIS — Every year, fantasy football brings new excitement to the NFL landscape as teams make sweeping changes, young players prepare to break out, and high-impact rookies make landfall in their first professional training camps.

The Indianapolis Colts are a particularly interesting team for fantasy players to invest in this season as the team moves forward with a new, yet familiar quarterback in Philip Rivers and using their first two picks in the 2020 NFL draft on offensive playmakers Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor.

Fantasy analysts everywhere seem to have plenty to like about several Colts players in 2020, but what should you really expect this year?

As always, everything starts up front.

The Colts offensive line returns all five starters from the last year-and-a-half. Their front is widely considered among the best in the NFL over that time and has been a consistent bright spot, powering a well-balanced attack.

Since 2018, the Colts rank ninth offensively in rushing (120.3 yards per game) — hitting the 150 rushing yards mark in 11 games, including six 200-yard games — and have allowed the third-fewest sacks (50).

With all that in mind, here is what you might see in return from the Colts’ most fantasy-relevant players this upcoming season.

(Average Draft Position (ADP) based on FantasyPros Half-PPR rankings on Friday before roster cuts.)

QB PHILIP RIVERS

(ADP: 164/QB24)

The Colts made an important upgrade at quarterback this offseason when they signed Rivers in free agency.

At 38, it’s understandable to be skeptical of a gunslinger of his age changing teams, but Rivers joining the Colts has been a smooth transition thus far.

For starters, he is very familiar with the Colts coaching staff, having played for head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni (and even tight ends coach Jason Michael) while they all were with the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers. Colts quarterbacks coach Marcus Brady told reporters in early June that the team had already installed about 90 percent of its playbook throughout its virtual offseason program, and the only thing Rivers had to hone in on at that juncture was the new verbiage used by Reich and Sirianni.

When Rivers moved to town this offseason, he began linking up with some of his new pass-catchers so they could get acquainted with each other, so they could hit the ground running when training camp began.

Camp showed us that Rivers is bringing some juice to the Colts passing game. He’s accurate, efficient, and gutsy, even though the latter means you may have to live with some turnovers that come with the chunk plays.

Regardless, there’s not much to indicate that we won’t see the same Rivers that we’ve seen with the Chargers over the last few years. While some consider 2019 to have been a “down” year for him, he had a terrific 2018 campaign. Given his age and having to get accustomed to a new cast of characters, it seems fair to expect that his 2020 season may fall somewhere in the middle.

The Colts offense will almost certainly continue to be run-based, as it’s how they’re built and they’ve had dominant performances on the ground in recent years. With that being the case, that should result in more stacked boxes from the defense. That in turn means less crowded secondaries for Rivers to throw into, and helps breed more opportunities for big shots in the passing game from play-action.

This offensive line is the best that Rivers has had in quite some time, giving him more time to progress through his reads and find the most effective pass, and the Colts pass-catching group gives Rivers everything that he could need moving forward.

Running back Nyheim Hines is a high-quality pass-catcher, much like Rivers has had with Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead and Austin Ekeler. Veterans T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal are good route runners with reliable hands. Parris Campbell has all the speed in the world and is expected to do damage from the slot. Pittman Jr. is a big-bodied outside receiver that has drawn comparisons to Rivers’ former Pro Bowl target, Vincent Jackson. Tight ends Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, and Mo Alie-Cox blend together to provide Rivers with toughness, reliable hands, the ability to move the chains, and to make plays downfield.

Overall, Rivers should represent a true upgrade for a Colts passing offense that ranked 30th in 2019 after averaging just 194.3 yards per game. The change could even be significant, as Rivers has had more productive seasons passing the ball individually than the Colts did last year as a team in the majority of his seasons as a starter.

With how much the Colts rely on the run game, Rivers’ end-of-season fantasy rank may have him closer to 20th than 10th, but most weeks he could be a feasible starter.

MORE: Check out all 32 NFL Team Previews by Sports Illustrated

NFL fantasy owners might be sleeping on Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack, but AllColts writer/fantasy expert Jake Arthur suggests that would be a mistake.
Don't dismiss Colts running back Marlon Mack in NFL fantasy drafts :: Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports

RBs JONATHAN TAYLOR, MARLON MACK, NYHEIM HINES

Taylor (ADP: 41/RB19) | Mack (ADP: 111/RB41) | Hines (ADP: 162/RB52)

The most transparent answer I can give you regarding what to do with the Colts backfield in fantasy is that none of us know — the Colts probably couldn’t tell you yet, either.

Incumbent starter Marlon Mack has 2,184 yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns over the last two years, earning top-20 fantasy running back status in both seasons.

Taylor was one of college football’s most-accomplished running backs ever and is likely to be handed the keys to the backfield at some point in his young career after the Colts traded up in the second round of the draft to pick him.

As a group, you can expect the Colts running backs to get fed and to take advantage of the quality blocking they should receive.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts had the second-best run-blocking unit in the NFL in 2019 with a grade of 85.1. They amassed the second-most first downs converted by runs (131), were fifth in carries per game (29.4), were tied for fifth in runs of 20-plus yards (14), tied for ninth in runs of 40-plus yards (3), and 10th in runs of 10-plus yards (53).

Their line is chock-full of road-graders as left guard Quenton Nelson's 90.1 run-blocking grade ranked third among all NFL offensive linemen, right tackle Braden Smith's 86.4 grade ranked fifth, center Ryan Kelly's 74.6 ranked 14th, and left tackle Anthony Castonzo's 70.2 ranked 22nd. That means that four of their five linemen are among the NFL's top-25 run blockers.

Mack, Taylor & Co. should get some help near the boundaries as well. Pascal was tops among all NFL wide receivers in run blocking with a grade of 85.0, and Burton and Doyle were the No. 1- and No. 4-rated run-blocking tight ends in the NFL just two seasons ago, respectively.

Teams can't just load up the box and try to stop Colts runners, either.

Rivers currently ranks sixth in NFL history in both passing touchdowns (397) and passing yards (59,271), so if defenses do load up their front to try and stop the run game, Rivers has well over a decade of experience proving to opponents why that's a bad idea.

The term “one-one” punch has been used by Reich and Sirianni to describe how they expect to use Mack and Taylor.

While third downs initially will likely feature Mack and Hines heavily, the pair of Mack and Taylor will likely split duties as the primary early-down backs. Some weeks, one of them could get around 10 touches per game while the other gets 12-15. Who gets those touches will be up in the air, as it almost certainly will be dictated by who has the "hot hand."

Historically, Reich’s backfields have been highly relevant in fantasy.

“Reich's four offenses have ranked no lower than 16th in RB carries (fourth in 2019) and no lower than 12th in expected YPC.,” ESPN writer analyst Mike Clay said about Reich’s running back groups in the seasons where he was the play-caller. “Though his offense ranked 23rd in RB targets last season, it was second and 10th his previous two seasons. His past three RB units have finished in the top 12 in fantasy points.”

While ADPs vary between the trio of Mack, Taylor, and Hines, there’s a good chance that any of the three will be startable on a weekly basis in PPR leagues — at the very least as a FLEX option — until when or if Mack or Taylor run away with the early-down duties. Goal-line situations will be something to monitor, as Mack has also dominated those touches over the last two years, but Taylor is a bigger and more powerful tailback.

While the Colts backfield situation is up in the air from a fantasy perspective, one thing I can say with confidence is that Mack is being slept on.

The discrepancy in Taylor and Mack’s ADP — Taylor is RB19 and Mack is RB41 (!) — seems too far apart.

Mack has been the Colts' bell cow over the last two years, accounting for 67.9 percent of the team’s non-quarterback carries in games where he was active, and 70.8 percent in 2019. Mack reached 20-plus touches in 11 games, but he maintained his explosion without falling into methodical, chain-mover status.

As for Hines — the pass-catcher with 107 receptions through two seasons — he may finish the 2020 season with either the first (needs 58 receptions) or second-most receptions (needs 43) by a Colts running back within their first three NFL seasons. He could also grab some extra points for punt-return touchdowns if he's able to hit paydirt like he did twice last year.

Indianapolis Colts second-year wide receiver Parris Campbell missed Wednesday's camp practice after being involved in a minor car accident. He's in the NFL's concussion protocol.
Second-year wide receiver Parris Campbell could have a breakout year :: Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports

WRs T.Y. HILTON, PARRIS CAMPBELL, MICHAEL PITTMAN JR., ZACH PASCAL

Hilton (ADP: 64/WR26) | Campbell (ADP: 171/WR63) | Pittman Jr. (ADP: 181/WR64) | Pascal (ADP: 300/WR97)

When it comes to the Colts wideouts to target in fantasy, you’ll want to be on the lookout primarily for Hilton and Campbell — Hilton usually around the fifth round while Campbell is often scooped up near the end of drafts.

Rivers and Hilton have already struck up quite a rapport in camp as Rivers utilizes the veteran speedster’s ability to find soft spots in coverage downfield.

Hilton has thrived during his career when he has gutsy passers such as Andrew Luck and now Rivers throwing to him. He’s a crafty route runner and uses his speed to get open downfield. With the exception of an injury-shortened 2019, Hilton led the Colts in targets every season for the past seven years, so that’s not really up for debate until we see otherwise. The chemistry that he and Rivers have apparently already formed seems to hammer that home.

Coming off an injury-plagued rookie season, Campbell is expected to be a playmaker out of the slot for the Colts offense as a sophomore.

“I think slot receivers, it's all about matchups. That's where the game plan and the scheme comes in,” Campbell said in the offseason about using his abilities from the slot. “A lot of times when you're in the slot, unless the defense is in nickel (and) bringing in an extra DB (defensive back), the majority of the time you're lining up against safeties, sometimes even linebackers who are not as – I don't want to say as athletic — but the speed might not be up to par. It's definitely a matchup thing. Having the things that I have, I think it just works well.”

Campbell’s speed and quickness should not only serve him well in gaining separation in routes close to the line of scrimmage, but he’s a handful to try and keep up with downfield as well. Rivers is likely to exploit Campbell’s mobility all over the field, resulting in several targets in order to generate yards after the catch from Campbell.

Pittman and Pascal are also viable options late in fantasy drafts. Pascal is unheralded nationally, but he’s far from it in the eyes of his quarterbacks. His versatility, toughness, crisp route running, and vice-grip hands make him a dependable possession option who also has a knack for making the occasional play downfield. Don’t forget that he held or shared the Colts’ lead last year in targets (72), receiving yards (607), and receiving touchdowns (5).

Pittman seems like a perfect match for what Rivers has liked in his career — a big-bodied target with great hands who can get in and out of his cuts quickly, and is capable of making plays downfield. You obviously have to be careful when considering rookie wide receivers, but Pittman is in a pretty good situation and should be productive for fantasy owners by year’s end.

TEs JACK DOYLE, TREY BURTON, MO ALIE-COX

Doyle (ADP: 142/TE20) | Burton (ADP: 326/TE39) | Alie-Cox (ADP: 432/TE55)

Like running backs, tight ends typically perform pretty well under Reich in terms of fantasy production.

“Playcaller Frank Reich operates a shotgun-heavy, conservative passing game that is reliant on its RBs and TEs more so than its wideouts,” Clay mentions. “In four seasons as a playcaller, all four of his TE units and three of his RB units have finished top-12 in fantasy points.”

“Tight ends have flourished under Reich. With the four units finishing no lower than 11th in routes and fantasy points, 10th in targets and receptions, eighth in yardage and TDs, fifth in OTD, and second in end zone targets.”

Rivers has had the benefit of reliable tight end help throughout most of his career in the form of Antonio Gates and most recently, Hunter Henry.

Doyle, Burton, and Alie-Cox should continue giving the veteran quarterback that comfort level, especially Doyle, who has been a security blanket for Colts quarterbacks. Reich and Rivers love scheming up and targeting the team's top tight end, and that's Doyle. Since he became the Colts' primary tight end in 2016, Doyle accounts for 16.1 percent of the pass targets.

The Colts’ desire to rely on multiple tight ends can often scare off fantasy owners, but it hasn’t been an issue. If there is talent there next to Doyle, they will utilize it. Once he is able to return from his calf injury, Burton should bring value to the fantasy landscape as well.

Consider 2018, when Doyle’s running mate Eric Ebron was able to score a whopping 14 touchdowns. While you could never predict that sort of output, Burton does bring a similar skill set in terms of athleticism, stretching the field, and picking up yards after the catch. Plus, Reich knows Burton well from their time together with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016-17.

The big X-factor for the Colts tight end group — especially considering Burton is expected to miss the first couple of weeks of the season — is Alie-Cox, a third-year basketball stud-turned-tight end.

Whenever mentioned by coaches or general manager Chris Ballard, it’s difficult for them not to mention Alie-Cox’s size (6-5, 267), toughness, and most notably his potential in the passing game and as a blocker (although the latter is already his bread and butter). If he’s not needed as much as a blocker in 2020, could we see his game expand even further as a pass-catcher?

While the Colts do have three talented tight ends, they may not all be fantasy studs. In Reich's offenses, the third tight end has only had at least 20 targets once. Burton’s availability clouds that a little bit, but you’ll want to re-evaluate this position on your fantasy rosters once the Colts have Doyle, Burton, and Alie-Cox all back healthy.

If you’re looking for huge production from any individual Colts tight end, it’s not likely going to be the group for you to pick from in fantasy. However, if you need someone to just give you something each week, there should be some consistency here.

Doyle is the top option here. He’s a classic chain-mover, but he also has a sneaky ability to find the soft spots in coverage, and he cleans up in the red zone, having scored 13 of his 18 career touchdowns inside the 10-yard line.

Once Burton is back, people may be reminded why he was such a heralded free-agent pickup for the Chicago Bears a couple seasons back, as his athleticism is something not often seen out of the tight end position.

Alie-Cox is primarily roster-able in deeper leagues and dynasty formats. However, monitor his usage in Burton’s absence. With a new quarterback, we don’t yet know how much Rivers may be enticed to look the big man’s way.

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COLTS DEF/ST

(ADP: 212/DST15)

The Colts defense looks like it’s ready to take another step up. The scheme is reliant on three positional pillars — the three-technique defensive tackle, the weak-side inside linebacker, and the inside-outside cornerback.

The Colts can now check all three of those boxes after acquiring defensive tackle DeForest Buckner from the San Francisco 49ers this offseason. The All-Pro joins fellow All-Pro WILL linebacker Darius Leonard and stud roaming slot corner Kenny Moore II.

Buckner will help lead a defensive line that features defensive end Justin Houston, who led the team last year with 11.0 sacks, including a stretch of six consecutive games with a sack. Third-year pass-rusher Kemoko Turay returns from a season-ending fractured ankle in 2019 after being tied for PFF’s best grade among all NFL edge defenders (91.3) in his short time on the field.

The Colts linebackers are about as athletic a linebacker group as you’ll find in the NFL. Led by Leonard, he and MIKE linebacker Anthony Walker both have had at least 100 tackles in each of their two seasons together, which bears noting for fantasy players of Individual Defensive Player (IDP) leagues. Starting SAM linebacker Bobby Okereke was also named one of the most promising defensive players in the NFL under the age of 25 by NFL.com this offseason.

The Colts secondary has proven talent at the top of the depth chart, with Moore, Xavier Rhodes, and Rock Ya-Sin leading the way at cornerback and Malik Hooker and Khari Willis roaming the field at safety. Ya-Sin grew quite a bit in the second half of his rookie season in 2019. While Rhodes is coming off of his own “down” year in 2019 (although he was named to his third Pro Bowl), the newcomer is reunited with a couple of coaches in Indy who saw him playing at his best while with the Minnesota Vikings in Jonathan Gannon and Alan Williams. There is a renewed comfort level for Rhodes, which the Colts hope will help get him back to the top of his game.

Injuries have been an unfortunate reality for this secondary, so that will require some monitoring if the ailments begin stacking up. Just last year, the aforementioned starters missed a combined 12 games. While defensive backs T.J. Carrie, George Odum, and Tavon Wilson can provide quality insurance behind the group, two other key depth pieces in Julian Blackmon and Isaiah Rodgers are rookies.

This is a defensive unit that has been banged-up a little bit in the back end, but is rock-solid in the front seven and is ready to be considered one of the NFL’s better defenses.

The Colts had some pretty impressive marks last year as they allowed the lowest goal-to-go percentage in the league at (51.9), were seventh against the run (97.9 YPG), allowed the ninth-lowest fourth-down conversion rate (42.1 percent), were ninth in red-zone scoring (52.0 percent), and were tied for the 10th-most takeaways (23).

A cherry on top for the Colts’ D/ST is that special teams scores are usually added to this group in fantasy. The Colts have a decent likelihood of making those happen, as punt returner Nyheim Hines took two back for touchdowns on his own in Week 16 last season, and potential kickoff returners Campbell and Rodgers bring blazing speed as well.

Overall, I consider a couple things when drafting a defense in fantasy. First, is it an elite defense that should do reasonably well most weeks? If the answer is no, you may find yourself streaming defenses throughout the year, so you’ll want to look at the defenses’ Week 1 matchup.

The Colts defense may not be elite yet, but it’s a defense you should have for Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

(Jake Arthur has covered the NFL and the Indianapolis Colts for nearly a decade and is a contributor for the team's official website, Colts.com. He’s on Twitter and Facebook @JakeArthurNFL, and his email is jakearthur0890@yahoo.com.)


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Jake Arthur
JAKE ARTHUR

Jake Arthur has covered the NFL and the Indianapolis Colts for a decade. He is a member of the Professional Football Writers of America (PFWA) and FantasyPros' expert panel. He has also contributed to multiple NFL Draft guides.