Predicting Colts' Anthony Richardson vs Patriots

Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson has a golden opportunity ahead in the New England Patriots.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks for an open receiver Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, during a game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indianapolis Colts field general Anthony Richardson didn't have the performance he would've liked against the Detroit Lions. However, Richardson is focused on defeating the New England Patriots and Drake Maye at Foxborough to move to 6-7. With that on the dome, it's time to predict Richardson's outing against the 3-9 Patriots. As before, we'll start with passing metrics.

Passing

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) makes a pass against Detroit Lions during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Patriots boast a bright young cornerback in Christian Gonzalez. Marcus Jones and Jonathan Jones can also be solid pieces around Gonzalez. However, New England is still 22nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 224.4 and doesn't sack the quarterback often (tied 22nd - 27). On paper, this paints a picture of Richardson getting settled in the passing attack and bouncing back. While he may have explosive throws and big gains, this contest has 'ground game' written all over it.

Given that Jonathan Taylor has had brutal showings in his last two games, tallying 92 rushing yards on 35 carries (2.6 average) and no scores. Look for Shane Steichen to operate the passing game behind a strong ground presence. The receiver in this game who is the X-Factor is Alec Pierce, especially given the absence of Josh Downs (shoulder). AD Mitchell and Michael Pittman Jr. will probably take the majority of targets, but Pierce will get multiple chances from Richardson's deep ball. While Richardson isn't in line for a massive passing performance, enough plays downfield and intermediate will give him a stable line to conclude.

PASSING PREDICTION: 16/27 (59.3%) for 227 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 Int

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Rushing

Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) and Detroit Lions linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (44) chase after Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, during a game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Patriots are slightly better against the run than pass defensively, ranking 18th in the NFL (123.1 yards allowed per game). While it's not awful, it's a clear target for Steichen to get Taylor back into a groove by running the ball heavily. Expect Richardson to benefit with multiple attempts on RPOs, options, and QB-designed runs.

Indianapolis has had issues with time of possession this season, the belief is it should improve against the struggling Patriots. The Colts should control the football for around 38 minutes, give or take. This type of clock control means Richardson, Taylor, and Co. will compile about 35 carries. It's expected that Taylor will dominate that (say 22 carries), and Richardson can easily see double-digits. With so much emphasis from Steichen on correcting the ground attack this week, expect Richardson to have a good game with his legs.

RUSHING PREDICTION: 11 carries for 43 rushing yards (3.9 average) and 1 TD

The Bottom Line

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) watches the final plays of the game from the sideline Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024, during a game against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Richardson is a development quarterback in the middle of working through the kinks of his game. After his supporting cast was mostly absent in week 12, this is a huge contest to showcase that was a fluke of a flop. The Colts do have injuries up front with center Tanor Bortolini (concussion) and tackle Braden Smith (personal), so Danny Pinter and Blake Freeland must be at their best to avoid a repeat performance of last week.

Richardson has the situation to have a successful outing against the Patriots on Sunday. The biggest question is if the offensive line and Richardson's weapons can elevate around the signal-caller. We'll see what Steichen has in store for Jerod Mayo's Patriots as Indianapolis heads to Gillette Stadium to fight for their playoff hopes.

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