Are Colts Prepared to Replace Braden Smith After 2024?

Indianapolis Colts' right tackle Braden Smith could be entering his final season with the team. Can the veteran lineman stay healthy in 2024?

Jan 6, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts offensive tackle Braden Smith (72) moves on the field during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports / Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts' right tackle Braden Smith has been a steady force on the team's offensive line since 2018, but could his time in Indianapolis be coming to end after this upcoming season?

The Colts selected Smith 37th overall way back in the 2018 NFL Draft. Smith was originally slated to be the right guard opposite superstar Quenton Nelson, but injuries on the roster forced Smith to shift over to the right tackle position during his rookie season. He excelled in the role, which led to his shift to the position as the full time starter.

Smith maintained his strong play at the position throughout his rookie contract, leading to the Colts extending him to a healthy four year, 70 million dollar extension back in 2021. While his play hasn't fallen off whatsoever on this monster extension, the biggest concern with the veteran moving forward is his health.

Smith started just 10 games for the Colts a year ago, while he only managed to finish eight of those contests. He had a relatively healthy campaign back in 2022 when he started 16 games, but he was also limited to just 11 starts back in the 2021 season. A player missing (essentially) 15 games over a three year span isn't the end of the world, but it is certainly concerning for a player that is making nearly 20 million dollars a season.

There is a logical argument to be made on both sides regarding Smith's future with the team, and the Colts have the flexibility to make a move off of Smith's contract following the 2024 season if they see fit. Losing a player of Smith's talent, however, could be a massive misstep for the Colts in the future.

The Case for Moving on After 2024

The case against Braden Smith is a relatively easy one to make, as the Colts have 16 million reasons to trade/release the veteran offensive tackle if he struggles to stay healthy again this upcoming season. According to Spotrac, the Colts can move off of Smith's contract with a dead cap hit of just three million dollars following the 2024 season (16.75 million in potential savings).

The best ability in football is availability, and Smith has missed roughly five games a season over the past three years. That may not seem like a massive number, especially when compared to players like Parris Campbell in the past, but it does add up over time. The Colts were essentially in a do-or-die playoff match-up with the Houston Texans in week 18 last season and Smith couldn't finish the game due to his injured knee.

It's hard to hold injuries against a player, but at the end of the day, the NFL is a business. It's difficult for teams to continually invest real capital in a player that consistently misses games. Smith did discuss this injury with reporters earlier this offseason, stating that he "had some stuff, you know, did some rehab this offseason, feel like I’m in a pretty good spot (with the knee). Strength is coming back. Just making sure I can get through the season healthy and make sure we’re being smart with things."

It's easy to write off a season or two as a fluke issue that pops up every now and then, but the Colts will be in a tough spot come 2025 if he misses significant time again this upcoming season. Hypothetically if he starts and finishes 12 games this next season, the Colts could see this recent trend as more indicative of the future for the veteran player.

What happens next for the Colts? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Colts news delivered to your inbox daily!

#Colts RT Braden Smith had surgery on the knee that had him hobbled for much of last season, Chris Ballard said.

They're hoping for a much healthier 2024 after he missed seven games last year.

— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) February 28, 2024

The other factor in this equation are the young tackles behind him in Blake Freeland and Matt Goncalves. Freeland, a 4th round selection in 2023, struggled a good bit in his limited action a year ago, but young tackles have shown the ability to improve in this system in the past. Maybe he can take a massive step forward and prove himself to be more ready that expected heading into 2025?

Goncalves may be even more intriguing than Freeland, even if that is simply due to the capital the Colts have already invested in him. The Colts traded up for Goncalves in the the 3rd round of the 2024 draft, and the team appears to be sky high on the potential of the young offensive lineman.

While the Colts' have stated that they view Goncalves as more of a swing player that could play either guard or tackle in the NFL, he could surprise in camp at the position that he excelled at in college.

Matt Goncalves vs top 40 pick Braden Fiske in 2022 pic.twitter.com/tQBLhqYbqR

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) April 27, 2024

The Case Against Moving on After 2024

Long term health is certainly a major factor in this future decision, and the cap savings are intriguing, but the risk involved in moving on from a really good starter on the offensive line is heavy. If the Colts are wrong about their ability to replace Smith, in the hypothetical world where they do move on, it could drastically hinder the development of Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

The drop-off from Smith to his backup last season (Freeland) was massive to say the least. In pass protection, Smith allowed just two quarterback hits and 12 hurries in 329 pass blocking snaps last season. Freeland, in 426 pass blocking snaps, allowed four sacks, four quarterback hits, and 37 hurries in pass protection.

Those numbers alone tell most of the story when it comes to the discrepancy in play between the two players. Smith looked comfortable, strong, and in control in most of his pass blocking snaps a year ago while Freeland struggled with his footwork and with his power at the point of attack. Even if Freeland takes a step forward in year two, it would have to be a pretty massive jump to close this big of a gap in play.

Some Braden Smith pass blocking reps from last season that caught my eye. Shane Steichen's system is a perfect fit for what Smith brings to the table.

Run/RPO scheme that lets OT's play aggressive in isolation. Utilizes Smith's explosiveness and ability in angle setting well pic.twitter.com/B8y6v3AMiV

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) July 15, 2024

The difference in run blocking may be even bigger between these two players. Smith was Pro Football Focus' third highest rated offensive tackle in run blocking last season, boasting an elite grade of 90.0. The Colts as a team were nearly a full yard better per rush in games that Smith played 40+ snaps in then in games that he didn't (4.63 yards per carry in nine games with him, 3.87 yards per carry in eight games without him).

Smith's elite play last year as both a run blocker and as a pass blocker makes this conversation much harder than what it should be. Even if Smith misses time again this season, the level of play that the Colts would be getting from him is undoubtably higher than whatever replacement they could find.

The value in having very good to elite offensive tackle play for 10-12 games vs not having that level of play in any game (but saving 16 million dollars on the cap) doesn't feel like a great trade-off for the Colts' offense.

Braden Smith was on one as a run blocker last season.

Side note but it feels like I'm watching T.Y Hilton clips with how many of these highlights came against the Texans pic.twitter.com/7rCxXRf0Z2

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) July 15, 2024

The Bottom Line

The Indianapolis Colts are a better football team when Braden Smith is on the field, but how long can they stay patient with a veteran player that has struggled with injuries in recent seasons? If Smith misses another 5-6 games in 2024, it could be hard for the team to justify keeping him at his 19 million dollar cap hit in 2025.

The tricky part of this equation is how good Smith has been when he has been on the field. He is a premier run blocker at the right tackle position and his pass protection is rock solid. The Colts saw firsthand how difficult it is to replace an offensive tackle the year after Anthony Castonzo retired, and having a full year of suboptimal play at right tackle could lead to disastrous results for their young quarterback.

Overall, it is still a bit early to have a definitive answer on this topic. Smith could go out there and lock it down for all 17 games in 2024 and render this entire topic mute. All we can do at the moment is hope the veteran can stay healthy for a productive Colts' team this next season.

I do want to pose one final question again if Smith struggles with injuries again in 2024; Is it truly worth an additional 16 million dollars in cap space to lose 10-12 games of very good-elite tackle play for this young offense? That could be the potential dilemma the Colts face next offseason if Smith struggles with injuries another year.

Need your fill on daily Colts' content? Head over to the Locked On Colts' YouTube channel where Jake Arthur and Zach Hicks hit on all the major topics surrounding this team. Hit that subscribe button while you are there!

Follow Horseshoe Huddle on Facebook and X, and subscribe on YouTube for multiple Colts live-stream podcasts per week.