Should the Colts Hire an Offensive or Defensive Head Coach?

The Indianapolis Colts are interviewing a plethora of candidates on both sides of the ball for their head coach opening.

The search for the next head coach of the Indianapolis Colts is well underway as the franchise scours the NFL-coaching landscape for its next leader.

General manager Chris Ballard has been feverishly interviewing candidates for the better part of two weeks now. Coordinators from across the NFL have been interviewing virtually with the Colts, with more expected to happen this week. Ballard hinted at his end-of-year press conference that the Colts would hold an extensive search, and extensive it has been.

“We’ve got a very detailed process put together on the traits and attributes we’re looking for in the head coach,” Ballard said. “Don’t care which side of the ball. And then to be patient and take your time and make sure we have a thorough interview with everybody. Consistent, thorough – I don’t care if it takes until mid-February to hire the head coach. It’s about getting it right.”

In the first week of their search, the Colts requested and interviewed seven different coordinators. Those were Colts special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone, Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, and Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. Johnson informed clubs this week that he was withdrawing his name from consideration to return to the Lions.

The Colts are not done, either. As they began week two of the head coaching search, the Colts sent in requests to interview four more coordinators around the NFL. The candidates are Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, New York Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, and Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.

And, of course, we cannot forget about Colts interim head coach Jeff Saturday, who will be considered for the full-time job despite going 1-7 as he took over for Frank Reich in November.

Looking at the candidates the Colts have interviewed or will be interviewing, the numbers are almost identical when sorted by sides of the ball with a slight edge to defense:

Four offensive coordinators (Bieniemy, Johnson, Kafka, Steichen).

Six defensive coordinators (Evero, Glenn, Martindale, Morris, Ryans, Quinn).

One special teams coordinator (Ventrone).

One Jeff Saturday.

Everyone has their opinion on who the Colts should hire. While Ballard has said it will not matter what side of the ball they come from, it is still worth monitoring considering the Colts will be selecting what they hope will be their next franchise quarterback in April’s NFL Draft.

So, the question is, should the Colts look to hire a coach with an offensive or defensive background? Or, in Ventrone’s case, a special teams background?

It’s no secret the league has trended to offensive head coaches over the last few years as teams search for the next Sean McVay (Rams) or Kyle Shanahan (49ers). Since 2019, there have been 30 head coaching openings in the NFL. 20 of those openings were filled by offensive coaches, nine by defensive coaches, and one by a special teams coach.

When looking at the combined record of these coaches, offensive coaches have had much more success. The 20 head coaches have a combined record of 341-339-4 (.502) in the regular season, with two Super Bowl appearances (Bruce Arians and Zac Taylor) and one Super Bowl victory (Arians). However, only eight of those 20 coaches have a winning record.

Records of NFL head coaches hired from 2019-2022 who came with an offensive background

When it comes to the defensive coaches hired in that span, they have fared far worse. The nine head coaches have a combined record of 116-166-2 (.412) in the regular season with no playoff wins. Only one of those head coaches has a winning record, current Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley.

Records of NFL head coaches hired from 2019-2022 who came with a defensive background

The one special teams coordinator hired as a head coach was Joe Judge, who served as the head coach of the Giants. Judge served as the Giants’ coach from 2020-2021 as he was fired after going 10-23 in two seasons.

The postseason in the NFL this year has also seen teams with offensive head coaches have the most success. As the divisional round is set to kick off this weekend, seven of the remaining eight head coaches have roots on the offensive side of the ball. The only defensive coach is Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills.

Examining things from another angle, of the active coaches with the most wins, three of the top four come from the defensive side of the ball in Bill Belichick (New England Patriots), Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers), and Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks). Five of the top ten in most wins among active coaches have a defensive background.

All of this is to say that while offensive candidates are the hot commodity and are having the most success right now, coaches from any side of the ball can be successful in the right situation. They need to have solid ownership behind them and a front office that works with them to acquire the players needed to win on the field.

But the most important thing an NFL team and head coach needs to do in 2023 is have a plan for their quarterback. Whether it’s one of the elites like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow, or an incoming rookie like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Will Levis, having a plan in place to not only develop the player but accentuate the quarterback’s strengths is key. Even if that quarterback is not at his best, being able to find ways to win with him is what all successful teams in the NFL today can accomplish.

“I think the ability to win,” Ballard explained when asked what he was looking for in a head coach. “Alright, so we know there’s the elite of the elite (quarterbacks). We know that when you walk out on game day, when you’ve got one of the elite of the elite, the field all of a sudden it just feels different. But you’ve got to be able to win with average to above-average quarterback play. You’ve got to be able to find a way to win.

“So it’s going to be very important whether it’s an offensive coach, defensive coach or special teams coach – the ability to build a plan around how we’re going to win, what our identity is going to be and how we’re going to win with who is playing quarterback is important. I think there is a way to win every game. I think you just look across the league right now and teams that might not be getting superstar quarterback play, but solid quarterback play are finding ways to win.”

Ballard will continue to vet the candidates thoroughly as he looks for the next head coach of the Colts. Whether the next head coach comes from the offensive side, defensive side, or special teams, if they can build a strong staff and execute a plan for the quarterback, they have a chance to win in the NFL.

Time will tell which direction Ballard chooses.

Want more Colts content? Check out the latest episode of the Horseshoe Huddle Podcast!

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