5 Keys to a Colts Victory Over Steelers

The Indianapolis Colts can't afford many mistakes if they want to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sep 22, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks over the field during a game against the Chicago Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Grace Hollars USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images / Grace Hollars USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts avoided a 0-3 start by getting their first win against the Chicago Bears. However, the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers are a tougher task offensively and defensively. If Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson want to upend Mike Tomlin and Justin Fields, a team effort must ensue, with as few turnovers from the young QB as possible.

Here are the five keys for Indianapolis on Sunday if they want to defend Lucas Oil Stadium from the Terrible Towel.

Smother Najee Harris

Steelers running back Najee Harris will be the primary threat out of the backfield, especially if third-down weapon Jaylen Warren can't go (knee). While the Colts bounced back in run defense against the Bears in week three, they're still 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (179.0). If the Colts want to have a chance of winning, they can't allow Fields, Harris, and this Steelers' type of football to dominate.

The Steelers are dealing with multiple injuries across their offensive line, but Indianapolis doesn't have star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner either. Whoever wins in the trenches likely takes this game, and the Colts don't want to return to the horror that was their run defense in weeks one and two. Look for Gus Bradley to focus heavily on containing Harris early, forcing Fields to do more from the pocket and as a passer.

Force Justin Fields to Throw Downfield

It's simple, the Steelers have Fields playing more efficient football than the Bears ever could. Now, the Colts must realize this and look deeper into the numbers. While Fields has 55/75 completions (73.3%), he's also notched just 518 passing yards. This equates to 9.4 yards per completion, meaning Fields is hitting shorter, safer throws, keeping his efficiency smooth.

While Fields has a long of 55 yards, looking at the leading pass-catchers for Pittsburgh puts more perspective into what Fields is completing on the gridiron. Wide receiver George Pickens leads the team with 13 catches for 171 receiving yards and a long of 40. Calving Austin III also has 6 catches for 108 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, and a long of 55. But, tight end Pat Freiermuth, backs Harris and Warren, and other pass-catchers are hardly making consistently big plays.

Similar to when the Green Bay Packers steamrolled the Colts in week two, Indy cannot allow Fields to get into rhythm with quick throws while leaning on a strong ground attack. Fields is a better QB with more experience who can make the Colts pay if they don't challenge him with good press coverage and pressure up front. Along with stopping Harris' running from the backfield, keeping Fields trying to make tougher throws downfield is a good recipe to force turnovers.

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Take the Points

Indianapolis Colts kicker Matt Gay (7) attempts a field goal kick Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024, during a preseason game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Colts defeated the Cardinals, 21-13. / Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Now more than ever NFL teams are going for it on fourth down. Through three games Indy is no different, with 2/5 attempts (40% efficiency) going Steichen's way. But, even if the Colts don't have a massive number of fourth-down attempts, it mustn't start against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers predicate their success on time of possession offensively while smothering teams defensively, often resulting in lower-scoring contests. In a battle where points will likely be at a premium, Steichen needs to come up with a more conservative approach on fourth and use Matt Gay whenever three points are open to be taken.

Currently, the Steelers haven't scored over 20 points in any game, sitting 24th in the league in points per game (17.0). If the Steelers have to play from behind to any extent, it might change the offensive game plan and give Indianapolis an edge. Steichen is a brilliant offensive mind who has shown moments where he outthinks himself. This is a matchup where he should take the points when presented and use Indy's expensive kicker ($22.5 million over four years, per Over The Cap).

Use Anthony Richardson's Running Ability

Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson (1) moves in as Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) rushes the ball Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, during a game against the Chicago Bears at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Running back Jonathan Taylor had a fantastic performance against the Bears, teeing off for 110 rushing yards on 23 carries, also scoring twice. The Steelers will be ready to take Taylor away, which gives Richardson more chances to get going with his athleticism.

On the season Richardson has 18 carries for 117 rushing yards (6.5 average) and a score on the ground. While there haven't been a lot of explosive runs from Richardson, his average is encouraging behind a top-tier Colts offensive line.

Pittsburgh is tied for second-best in the league in rushing yards allowed with 214 (Minnesota Vikings), so Indy should expect a serious battle in the trenches and second level. But, given how the offensive line and notables like Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith have been playing, Indy has the potential to smash any defense with an overwhelming ground attack, with Taylor or Richardson.

Activate Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (1) celebrates with Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) as he runs into the end zone Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, during a game against the Cleveland Browns at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are the most reliable targets in Indy's wide receiver room. However, Alec Pierce has emerged as the most explosive and consistent wideout through three games, sitting at 9 catches for 225 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Pittman (11 catches for 88 receiving yards) and Downs (3 catches for 22 receiving yards).

Even if Indianapolis can run the football, they'll still have to pass. The best way to do this is to get both the superstar and quick-win pass-catchers active and often. For Downs, it's about getting open (especially on the inside) for Richardson to toss simple throws. For Pittman, it's less about the former USC Trojan and more about Richardson hitting the dynamic receiver.

However, Pittman isn't being targeted near his 2023 pace (156 targets; 9.75 per game), with 20 over three games in 2024 (6.6 per game). The rhythm has also been off, with Pittman averaging an awful 8.0 yards per catch. If Indianapolis can get Pittman 10+ targets, good things will likely happen. We'll see if there's an emphasis on getting #11 the football against Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.

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