Best/Worst Case Scenarios for Colts Offense Without Anthony Richardson

Given that rookie QB Anthony Richardson will receive season-ending surgery, how will this shape the Indianapolis Colts offense from here on out?

It’s officially been announced that Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will receive season-ending shoulder surgery.

QB Anthony Richardson will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. pic.twitter.com/iYZbTyXOkw

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 18, 2023

This was likely to happen after his game ended in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans, but still hurts the organization, and fans alike, to hear that Richardson’s season has concluded already.

With this being the case, it’s time for backup signal-caller Gardner Minshew to step up and finish as strong as possible for the remaining 11 games. What is the ceiling and the floor for this offense without Richardson? Let’s discuss the best and worst scenarios with Shane Steichen’s offensive attack now that Minshew is at the helm.

Best Case Scenario: Colts Finish 10-7

Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the brutal showing from Minshew in Week 6 against his former team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Colts still have a more lax schedule than other NFL teams. Plus, they’ve already taken out the Houston Texans and Titans in their first games against each.

If the Colts can bounce back with Minshew after his career-worst game, then there’s a chance they could win crucial contests and snag a low seed in the playoffs. However, it will depend on the ground game and taking care of the football for the Colts offense.

Minshew can operate well with a balanced approach, so if Indianapolis can get rhythm from their running backs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, it will help the veteran field general immensely.

When Minshew has looked great this year, it’s been with balance in the attack. Filling in against the Texans (126 yards) and Titans (193 yards), the offense finished with fantastic rushing numbers. This allowed a game manager like Minshew to do just that, manage the offense and keep things moving without becoming easy to dictate or one-dimensional.

Even in his starting role against the Baltimore Ravens, the Colts offense crushed their defensive opposition en route to 139 rushing yards (122 from Moss). This made the five sacks Minshew took disappear since they got the 22-19 overtime victory.

Now that Taylor is getting into the routine, perhaps it’s a chance to get back on track with the rushing attack. This will be the best way for Minshew to succeed and could open up more in the passing game for the veteran backup. 

What happens next for the Colts? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Colts news delivered to your inbox daily!

Worst Case Scenario: Colts Finish 6-11

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This scenario will play out if the second game against Jacksonville is the story of the Colts' offense going forward. This story is stop the ground game and force Minshew to win.

The Jaguars were masterful in the defensive approach facing the Colts in Week 6. They stacked linebackers in the box, forcing the Colts to throw and avoid using Taylor and Moss out of the backfield. The RB duo would muster up an abysmal 40 rushing yards for the day.

What Steichen could have done to pick up the ground game was run Taylor and Moss to the outside, rather than in. This pulls apart the bundled-up linebackers and could open up inside gaps later on.

However, Minshew’s 4 turnovers (3 interceptions and 1 fumble lost) were a back-breaker and forced Indy to throw to get back int he game. This showed that if you push Minshew to win the game from the start, it isn’t likely. 55 passes later and Minshew has his worst performance to date for his five-year NFL career.

While this “worst case” is less likely than the “best case” due to Minshew being the league’s top backup and low-risk field general, the rest of the NFL also has the outline on how to effectively silence Steichen’s offense without Richardson. It’s through stopping the run, forcing turnovers early, and making Minshew shoulder the entire offense.

Defenses like the Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers can bring the pain defensively in any given contest and will be looking to replicate what the Jaguars were able to do to force more errors. 

Outlook

© Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

The realistic expectation is about 7 or 8 wins with Minshew. But, either of these scenarios could play out for the remainder of the 2023 season.

It’s all going to depend on the ground game, run blocking, and pass protection. Minshew’s debacle against the Jaguars isn’t an indication of how he typically plays, as this 3 interception game was the first-ever multi-interception game of his career. That is an impressive stat for a QB to boast when they’ve seen the field as much as Minshew has.

Steichen will be on point ahead of the matchup Sunday with the Browns, who are an incredible squad defensively. Will this Colts offense bounce back right away? We’ll have to wait and see how Minshew takes on Week 7 and his role as the Colts starting passer moving forward. 

---

Follow Horseshoe Huddle on Facebook and Twitter, and subscribe on YouTube for multiple Colts live-stream podcasts per week.