Colts' Anthony Richardson Improving in Several Key Categories

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is showing steady improvement since returning to the lineup.

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws a touchdown pass while New England Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss (53) defends during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images / Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has had a somewhat rocky second season in the NFL. From early season injuries to a mid-season benching, it hasn't quite been what many expected in year two from the young passer. However, Richardson has started to put it together in his past three weeks of play.

Richardson is still far from where he needs to be as a franchise quarterback, but the right steps are being taken now compared to his early season play. He has made exponential leaps in several key areas of late, which has led to the Colts being 2-1 in his three games since returning to the starting lineup.

So today, let's look at several categories where Richardson has taken a positive step forward in recent weeks.

Hitting the Lay-ups

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws a pass during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images / Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

In his early season stretch of play, the Colts' offense had a success rate of just 37.4% under Richardson, which ranked among the worst in the league. Since returning to the lineup, the offense has been closer to the league average with a 46.7% success rate. This increase can mostly be attributed to Richardson's improvement in the short game.

From weeks 1-8, Richardson went 37-57 (64.9%) for 326 yards and three interceptions on passes with intended air yards under 10. Since returning to the lineup in week 11, Richardson was gone 29-37 (78%) for 231 yards and three touchdowns on such passes.

Despite a relatively insignificant increase in rate of short passes, Richardson has been much more efficient in the short game in recent weeks.

Quick thread from Colts-Jets.

First and foremost, Anthony Richardson was decisive as a passer on Sunday. He looked like he was in command of the offense and knew where he was throwing all day, including on this TD to Josh Downs (note Downs coming out of the backfield): pic.twitter.com/5kD8TcXI8D

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) November 18, 2024

Operating in Standard Drop Back Passes

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) signals during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Richardson's underlying stats have been an enigma this season, as he seems to have completely flipped how he was finding success early in the season compared to how he is now.

For example, early in the season, Richardson was greatly benefitting from play-action passes to compliment his struggling drop back passing game. His completion percentage was an insane 18% higher on play-action early in the season and he completed three of his passing touchdowns off of play-action as well. In recent weeks, this script has flipped completely.

Now Richardson is dialed in on the non-play-action passing attempts. Since returning to the starting lineup, Richardson ranks as Pro Football Focus' highest rated passer with a 91.0 grade on non-play-action pass attempts. He is 30 of 52 passing for 380 yards and three touchdowns with just one interception on such pass attempts.

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His completion percentage is still just 57.7% on such passes, but Pro Football Focus has noted that his adjusted completion percentage is 76.6% on these standard drop backs, which is more middle of the pack league-wide when factoring for drops and throwaways.

To put it plainly, Richardson was greatly benefitting from play-action passes earlier in the season to boost his struggling standard drop back passing game. Now, his drop back passing game is clicking at a level we have never seen from him at this point. He's been legitimately lethal on standard drop backs in recent weeks.

Anthony Richardson has shown great improvement in the short game in recent weeks. He's completing 78% of his passes under 10 air yards and is PFF's top graded passer on non-play-action throws since week 11.

Still needs to lower the ADoT a tad but improvement is good: pic.twitter.com/CIQOFFjJMe

— Zach Hicks (@ZachHicks2) December 10, 2024

Improved Completion Percentage

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) warms up before a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The stipulation for this final point is that Richardson still ranks among the worst starting quarterbacks in completion percentage since his return. However, he's at least showing improvement in recent weeks, which means something in a developmental year.

Prior to the benching, Richardson had a league-worst 44.4% completion percentage on his pass attempts. The next closest starter to that mark was Jacoby Brissett at 59.1%. Even when adjusting for drops and throwaways, Richardson's completion percentage was still just 55.9%.

Since returning to the lineup in week 11, Richardson has improved his completion percentage to 52.4% and an adjusted completion percentage of 68.5%. These two numbers are still at the bottom of the league among starting quarterbacks, but they aren't astronomical outliers like they were earlier in the season.

If he can continue to build that percentage up to the mid- to high-50's by the end of the season, that'll be a solid number for a player with his skill set and average depth of target.

Anthony Richardson's completion % over exp

Week 1-8: -14.6
Weeks 11-13: -3.0

He also suffers from a league-leading drop rate of 12.1%

— Chris Ballard is My Daddy (@VeveJones007) December 10, 2024

The Bottom Line

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks to pass against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Richardson still has inroads to make before he hits his ceiling in the NFL, but recent weeks have shown he can improve upon his deficiencies. Since his return to the starting lineup, Richardson has been more accurate overall and is operating better in standard dropbacks.

When you combine these improvements with the four elite pillars of his game-- explosive playmaking, sack avoidance, clutch factor, rushing threat-- you get a quarterback that is playing good football in recent weeks. He still needs to bring down his average depth of target and be more consistent, but this is a promising sign for the young passer.

With a month left of play for the Colts this season, Richardson has four more games to solidify his second half of the season performance. If he can stay the course with these numbers, or improve them even more, the Colts should be in good shape heading into next year with their franchise quarterback.

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