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Bettors Reveal Colts' Odds at Making Playoffs

The percentages are out on the Indianapolis Colts to make the postseason.

Sean Ackerman

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) signals during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) signals during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images
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The Indianapolis Colts (6-7) are fighting for their playoff lives. After another fourth-quarter comeback against the New England Patriots (3-10), quarterback Anthony Richardson has Indy believing in his team. With four games left on the year, the Colts' playoff chances sit at 23% according to The Upshot, a New York Times odds simulator.

As the Colts head into their bye week, so do the Denver Broncos (7-5). The Broncos have the 7th seed in the AFC as the curtain closes. Coming out of the bye, Indy will make the trip to Denver in a game that could determine the playoff picture for the conference.

After the Broncos tilt, the Colts' schedule looks like this: Week 16 vs. Tennesee Titans (3-9), Week 17 @ New York Giants (2-10), Week 18 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10). All three teams are toward the bottom of their division, setting Indianapolis up nicely for a winning run to end the regular season. For head coach Shane Steichen, the message is to take it one game at a time.

Indy Needs a Win in Denver.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (all-white uniform) looks for room to run.
Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) runs with the ball during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images / Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

If the Colts beat the Broncos, their playoff odds jump to a much improved 60%. If they lose, the odds fall to an abysmal 7%. The season sits heavily on the Colts' offense to put up points against the third-ranked defense in the NFL.

Even if Indy loses to Denver but wins its final three games the playoff odds are an uninspiring 27%. Walking out with a win at Mile High Stadium might be the biggest moment of Shane Steichen's young career as a head coach.

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If the Colts can pull out a victory in Week 14, they'd likely have to win at least two of their three remaining games to stay in the hunt. Any combination of two wins in the last three puts Indy at a respectable 70% chance of making the playoffs. Winning out all four games practically guarantees a spot with a 99% chance.

The Colts Can't Afford Two More Losses.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen (blue hat, black sweatshirt) walks on the sideline assessing his team's performance.
Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen works form the sideline during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Reaching nine losses would practically end the season. Teams with a losing record rarely make the playoffs and the AFC has far too many talented teams to let a losing team snag a postseason spot.

Looking at the various simulations, the weight of the Broncos game continues to come into play. In any two-loss scenario, the Colts more than likely miss the playoffs. If the Colts win at Denver but lose two of their remaining three games, playoff odds shoot down to a measly 15% chance. The odds fall even further to a 2% chance if the Colts lose at Denver and lose any other game.

Beating the Broncos is a tall ask, but certainly an achievable one. Led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, Denver has held their own throughout the season and even came up one field goal short of beating the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1). Forcing Nix into uncomfortable throws will be key for Gus Bradley's defensive success.

The Colts' fate rests in their hands. If momentum can build off a win against the Broncos and on, there's a shot in the dark that Indianapolis will find a playoff spot. We'll see how the Colts approach the bye week with a break before a critical four-game stretch.

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Sean Ackerman
SEAN ACKERMAN

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