Bills Matchup a Must Win for Colts

Based on analytics, the Indianapolis Colts must win against the Buffalo Bills if they value the playoffs.

Nov 3, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco (15) passes against the Minnesota Vikings in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts are officially in the latter half of their 2024 regular season. However, sitting at 4-5 isn't ideal, and it gets no easier with the 7-2 Buffalo Bills visiting Lucas Oil Stadium tomorrow afternoon. On top of the added pressure of trying to contain quarterback Josh Allen, Indianapolis also has much at stake in this week 10 matchup. Per Pro Football Focus, Indy's chances to make the playoffs if they win versus a loss are damming.

The teams with the most at stake in Week 10 😬

More info: https://t.co/7YrpCIfFC1 pic.twitter.com/WTiATaloF3

— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2024

While a 54% chance isn't anything to write home about, it's still shouting distance of making the postseason if Joe Flacco and the offense can sustain the rest of Indy's most difficult stretch. However, the flipside is an abysmal 24% chance of making the playoffs if Buffalo notches a road victory tomorrow afternoon. The Colts haven't looked good offensively in recent weeks, especially against the Minnesota Vikings in week nine primetime, so confidence in an Indianapolis victory isn't the highest.

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Flacco concluded with arguably his worst performance as a starter in 2024, with 16/27 passing for 179 yards through the air, 0 touchdowns and an interception. The ground attack with running back Jonathan Taylor and Co. also suffered due to Flacco's lack of mobility, mustering a mere 68 yards rushing as a team. If Indianapolis wants to upset the red-hot Bills tomorrow, it will take a much better outing from the rushing game and their top playmaker. Also, with Michael Pittman Jr. (back) out for this battle, Josh Downs will likely see more targets. He's already been the best pass-catching option, leading the team with 38 catches through nine contests.

The Colts have had an awkward second year under Shane Steichen, with the QB investment Richardson getting benched a mere 10 starts into his young career. Can the Colts' new game plan of starting Flacco to 'win now' pay off against the Bills? The Colts have their backs against the wall and want to avoid 4-6 at all costs, we'll see if they can answer the bell with an incredible upset at home.

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