5 Keys to Victory for Colts vs. Buccaneers

Despite having a losing record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature offensive weapons that could spell trouble for the Indianapolis Colts’ defense.

Drake Wally | Nov 24, 2023

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Indianapolis Colts

Now that their bye has concluded, the Indianapolis Colts will get back to business in a favorable home matchup with the waning Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6).

Many may write this showdown off at face value, but there’s plenty to play for. The Colts are just outside of the playoff picture and the Bucs are close to leading a bad NFC South division, even with a 40% win mark.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at the five goals that Shane Steichen’s Colts need to achieve to get an important win in a game with playoff implications.

#1: Get Gardner Minshew into a Rhythm

Colts QB Gardner Minshew will be the starter for the rest of the year, and in recent weeks hasn’t played top-notch football.

However, this is a golden matchup, as the Buccaneers have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL when it comes to passing yards per game (270.7). This is arguably the most porous defense Minshew has and will face all season.

With rookie playmaker Josh Downs returning from knee injury to full capacity and Michael Pittman Jr. having such an advantageous matchup, look for Steichen to use this opportunity to take advantage of a banged-up Bucs secondary to get Minshew into a good rhythm for the first time in multiple games.

#2: Stop DT Vita Vea

Despite being awful against the pass, the Bucs are one of the top defensive groups against the run. In 2023, they’re marking at the following ranks against the ground attack:

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 90.0 (5th in the NFL)
Total Rushing Yards Allowed: 900 (4th in the NFL)

This is due in large part to the monstrous activity of former Pro Bowl DT Vita Vea.

On the season, Vea has 31 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks (team lead). Vea also sits fourth on the entire Bucs roster (28 eligible) in run defense grade with 76.8, per Pro Football Focus.

If the Colts hope to get running backs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss going to any capacity, they must handle this veteran beast on the defensive front, or it could be all on Minshew to win.

#3: Get Michael Pittman Jr. the Ball

As mentioned in Key #1, Pittman will be facing a depleted and exploitable Tampa secondary.

It’s fair that Pittman will likely cool off a bit, as over the past three games he has 24 catches (8 in each game) for 188 receiving yards and a TD. But, there’s also a chance that Pittman eclipses 10 catches for the first time in a game this year and posts his season-best numbers.

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Downs will get his fair share of targets, as will move-TE Kylen Granson. But, Pittman will be the force through the receiving corps that will help open up Steichen’s offense, as well as the ground game.

Look for Pittman to potentially put up his best game of the year against the Buccaneers.

#4: Force Baker Mayfield to Win the Game

As with most QBs, pressure isn’t preferred and leads to a drastic drop-off in efficiency under center. The same goes for Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield.

This year, Mayfield is playing well, posting 226-of-350 (64.6%) for 2,389 passing yards, and 15 TDs to 6 Ints. This is also behind a solid offensive line led by offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke.

Despite this strong o-line, the Buccaneers have the worst rushing numbers in the NFL, posting a mere 76.9 rushing yards per game. Also, starting back Rashaad White isn’t finding space, averaging a meager 3.3 yards per tote. He does have 4 rushing TDs, but a long run of 16 yards.

If DeForest Buckner and Indy’s defensive front can silence White and force Mayfield to do it all, Indy may add to his interception totals. It won’t be easy, as Tampa’s protection will be ready for the ground attack to not work, as they’ve dealt with it all year.

If Mayfield has to win, he’ll have two massive weapons to throw to. Those weapons are wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

#5: Limit Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) celebrates his touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023. — © Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Two pass-catchers who need no introduction, Evans and Godwin are likely the toughest matchup that Indy’s young secondary will face all year.

Yes, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk from the Jacksonville Jaguars are tough, but they’ve hardly played together. Evans and Godwin have a Super Bowl ring to prove they can destroy any defense.

Here are the numbers for both WRs through 10 contests:

Mike Evans: 48 catches for 780 receiving yards and 7 TDs
Chris Godwin: 50 catches for 561 receiving yards and 1 TD

Colts defensive mainstay Kenny Moore II could see either one of these receivers. He’s mostly in the slot (where Godwin will mostly be), but if needed, can be pushed to the outside to cover Evans.

Regardless of how this plays out, the Colts have to be better than they’ve been against less-capable receivers. It might not be Tom Brady throwing the football, but if Mayfield isn’t pressured and can get time to throw on Gus Bradley’s secondary, it could be a bad game for Indy’s defense.

On paper, these two already look like potential kryptonite for the Colts’ secondary. It will take stopping the ground game and pressuring Mayfield effectively to keep Evans and Godwin from having a field day.

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Published Nov 24, 2023

DRAKE WALLY

Drake Wally covers the Indianapolis Colts at Horseshoe Huddle and co-hosts the Horseshoe Huddle Podcast.