Horseshoe Huddle

Colts' D-Line Must Capitalize vs. This Patriots' Vulnerability

The Indianapolis Colts' pass rush is too good for a letdown this weekend against New England

Zach Hicks

Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) chases after New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) as he scrambles in the pocket Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, during a game against the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) chases after New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) as he scrambles in the pocket Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, during a game against the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Indianapolis Colts' pass rush has come alive in recent weeks, and now they get the opportunity to face one of the worst offensive lines in the league in a must-win game.

The Colts' pass rush has been producing at a high level in recent weeks, even if the sack numbers don't completely show it. Last week against the vaunted Detroit Lions, the Colts pressured Jared Goff on 37% of his dropbacks despite only blitzing at a 10% rate. Since the disaster in Jacksonville back in Week 5, the Colts have been pressuring their opponents at a 47.5% rate (according to NFL Pro).

Carried by DeForest Buckner's return to dominance (fourth in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles by Pro Football Focus) and Laiatu Latu's emergence (19th among edge rushers in pass rush win rate), the Colts' pass rush has found its footing in recent weeks. The only real issue appears to be finishing pressures for sacks.

Despite the high pressure rate and the emergence of several big-time contributors, the Colts rank outside the top 20 in the NFL in sacks per game (at just 2.3). Even during this last stretch of dominant pressure play, the Colts have just managed 2.2 sacks per game on their staggering 47.5% pressure rate. Tackling has been a major issue for the team this season and the Colts have struggled to finish plays in the opponent's backfield.

This issue could prove costly this weekend against the New England Patriots. The Patriots inarguably have one of the worst offensive lines in the entire league. PFF has them as the 31st-ranked unit in pass blocking while ESPN and Sports Info Solutions also have the team ranked among the worst. They've also allowed the seventh-most sacks in the NFL this season with 39.

This is shaping up to be a massive sack game for the Colts on paper, but there is one more factor in play with this upcoming game: quarterback Drake Maye. Maye has been under constant duress since taking over as the Patriots' starter, but he has been notably better than previous starter Jacoby Brissett at avoiding the negative play. His pressure-to-sack rate is at an adequate 19.8%, and he ranks No. 6 in the NFL in total scrambles despite starting later in the season.

Maye has been productive as a runner this season and he boasts the second-highest scramble rate in the NFL. For a Colts' team that has struggled to corral opposing quarterbacks this season, this is a real concern heading into Sunday's match-up.

The Colts are bound to create pressure against the young passer, but can they get Maye to the ground and limit the big plays? That will ultimately be the difference between winning and losing in this pivotal late-season matchup.

The Takeaway

The Colts' pass rushers better be ready to finish plays in the backfield on Sunday, or a quarterback like Maye could certainly make them pay. This game will be won or lost by the Colts' defensive line, so they need to be on their A game to take advantage of a truly horrid Patriots' offensive line.

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Zach Hicks
ZACH HICKS

Zach Hicks is the Lead Analyst for HorseshoeHuddle.com. Zach has been on the NFL beat since 2017. His works have appeared on SBNation.com, the Locked On Podcast Network, BleacherReport.com, MSN.com, & Yardbarker.com. 

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