5 Keys to Victory for Colts Over Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons will host the Indianapolis Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in a cross-conference clash on Christmas Eve.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off of a great win over the Pittsburgh Steelers that puts them squarely in the AFC playoff discussion. However, the Atlanta Falcons aren’t celebrating a win but a crushing loss at the hands of the flat Carolina Panthers team, throwing them into a 6-8 record and yet another QB change for Arthur Smith.

Can the Colts get to 9-6 and keep getting closer to the postseason? Or, will the Falcons be able to bounce back with a more stable passer under center? It’s time to talk about the five keys to Indy grabbing a victory on Sunday.

#1. Blake Freeland Bounce Back

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Rookie fourth-rounder out of BYU, Blake Freeland, has had to step into the starting role at tackle and face the likes of Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, and Aaron Donald, among other star pass rushers. However, last week, Steelers sack artist and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, made Freeland look like he was on skates.

While right guard Will Fries also struggled in pass protection, nobody was worse than Freeland on the afternoon in relief of starter Braden Smith at RT. Below are the Pro Football Focus grades for Freeland on 67 offensive snaps from the 30-13 victory:

• Pass-Blocking Grade: 34.6
• Run Blocking Grade: 35.2
• Pressures Allowed: 4 (tied with Fries for team lead)

While the Falcons don’t have the talent that matches the aforementioned names, they can still take advantage of a rookie if he’s off his game. With Smith likely out again, it’s looking like Freeland will start. Look for him to try and bounce back in an easier matchup in the trenches.

#2. Contain Falcon’s Ground Game

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The Falcons aren’t threatening in the passing game, but they do sit ninth in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 126.4. This is largely due to the tandem of rookie Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. Since Atlanta has been below average passing the ball, they’ve turned to these two for a lot of offensive responsibility.

Robinson has started his NFL career well in Year 1, with 176 rushes for 801 yards (4.6 avg) and four rushing scores. He’s also caught 41 passes for 323 yards and three receiving scores. Look for Robinson to be the focal point with the Taylor Heinicke taking over for Desmond Ridder.

Allgeier is more of the large power back, rushing the ball 166 times for 577 yards (3.5 avg). He’s grabbed a total of 13 catches for 89 yards to add to his rushing numbers. While WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts can be threatening, they aren’t going to have the same impact if Atlanta cannot run the football.

The Colts are going to have to stop these two from running all over the place. Otherwise, a veteran like Heinicke will adjust to this well and could find opportunities downfield to London or Pitts.

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#3. Take Downfield Shots

Denny Simmons The Tennessean USA TODAY

Surprisingly, the Falcons are strong against offensive passing schemes, ranking ninth in pass yards allowed per contest with 199.5. But, the Falcons have an underwhelming seven interceptions on the year despite the solid metrics.

This is where Colts QB Gardner Minshew needs to be aggressive. With the news of Michael Pittman Jr. progressing toward a return, this could help Shane Steichen’s level of disguise. But, even if Pittman cannot play, this Colts offense should still try targeting Alec Pierce or others for downfield shots.

This will loosen up the Falcon’s defense and open up potential ground attacks, which Atlanta has shown to be more vulnerable against. Given the performance of RBs Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson in the Steelers game, it can only help matters if superstar Jonathan Taylor can return to the field, as Zack Moss missed another practice and may not put on pads.

#4. Defensive Ends Must Continue Hot Streak

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Samson Ebukam (9.5 sacks), Dayo Odeyingbo (8), Kwity Paye (7.5), and Tyquan Lewis (3) have done great work as edge rushers. However, both Ebukam and Odeyingbo are coming off of 1.5 sack performances against the Steelers.

Atlanta has allowed 36 sacks this year, and this Colts defensive front is looking to take advantage. Indy is currently tied for third in the NFL with 46 as a team. This also ties the Indianapolis-era team sack record for most in a season (2005). With three contests left, it’s looking like this record will be a thing of the past.

The Falcons have played banged up in the offensive trenches, with names like LT Jake Matthews (knee) and G Chris Lindstrom (ankle) surfacing with injuries during practice this week. If they aren’t 100%, this Colts torrid defensive front could feast on Heinicke, who won’t escape the pocket and run as quickly as Ridder.

#5. Continue to Run the Ball Heavily

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To close out the game against Pittsburgh, Steichen continued to pepper the Steelers with run after run. Sermon would have 17 carries for 88 rushing yards and Goodson 11 carries for 69 rushing yards, totaling out to 28 for 157 rushing yards between the two.

Now, with Taylor on track to return, it could be a lot more of that. The only reason this goal isn’t listed as “Get Taylor 20-plus carries” is because, even if Taylor returns, who is to say he’s getting all of the touches?

Given the performances of the Colts’ reserve backs in the last game, look for Steichen to use a three-headed approach to keep the Falcons on their toes defensively, which could open up the previously listed deep shots, and visa versa.

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