Colts Given Improbable Odds to Make Playoffs

The Indianapolis Colts could be playing for nothing to close out the season.
Dec 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
Dec 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
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The Indianapolis Colts practically killed their playoff chances after falling way short to the Denver Broncos last Sunday. The loss was riddled with mistakes, something the team hasn't been able to clean up 15 weeks into the NFL season.

Had the Colts won against Denver, their playoff odds would be around 60%. Instead, the current odds for the Colts to play postseason football sit at 14% (according to The Upshot, a New York Times playoff simulator).

Entering the final stretch, the Colts have the easiest strength of schedule in the league. Indy will face off against the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, and Jacksonville Jaguars. None of those opponents have over three wins on the season.

Even if the Colts manage to win all three games, they'll only have a 37% chance of clinching a wild card spot in the AFC. The division is already out of the question for Indy after the Houston Texans clinched it last weekend. This marks the 10th straight year the Colts have lost the division.

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Looking at the other wild card teams, one stands out. The Los Angeles Chargers are currently 8-6 and possess the 7th seed in the conference. The Colts need the Chargers to lose two of their final three games to make the playoffs.

The Chargers play the Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 and then will play the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders to close the season. The Patriots and Raiders rank among the worst in the league, so it's unlikely the Chargers lose to either of them.

If the Chargers fall to the Broncos, things will get interesting. Divisional record plays a major part in tiebreakers for playoff spots, so a loss to the Broncos would mean the Chargers have to win out to keep their spot (if the Colts win out).

The only other way the Colts make the playoffs is if the Baltimore Ravens lose out. The Ravens will play the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Texans, and the Cleveland Browns. The AFC North is always a bloodbath, so it's not impossible for the Ravens to lose all three games.

Regardless, the Colts' playoff fate is officially in the hands of other teams. It's truly unlikely any of these scenarios happen, but you never know in the NFL.


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