Upset Alert: How the Colts Can Upset the Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts are looking to upset the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Football is underway and the Indianapolis Colts have a familiar foe coming into town as they prepare to face the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts are currently a five-point underdog, but as we just saw on Thursday night when the Detroit Lions took down the Kansas City Chiefs, odds mean nothing in the first week of the season.

The Colts are very familiar with the Jaguars, and were even before adding somebody who was just on their coaching staff a season ago. Jim Bob Cooter was the passing game coordinator for the Jags last season and is sure to bring some valuable insight on some things the Colts can do to exploit weaknesses in the team.

Here are three things I personally think the Colts need to do to secure the “upset” and beat the Jaguars in Week 1.

“Run To Win”

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Run to win was a phrase that Shane Steichen used to describe the mindset he has when it comes his philosophy. He used the term in the context of leaning on the passing game and running the ball to put the game away.

The context I’m using it in is leaning on the run game with the plus-1 advantage that Anthony Richardson gives you. While I think it’s gonna be a little while before Richardson can be an effective passer that can carry an offense, I do think he can be a special runner from Day 1. He showed shades of it in the preseason on several scramble attempts when the play broke down and I think he’ll have those same opportunities in this one. 

If I had to guess, we probably see 6-8 designed runs from Richardson. When he keeps it and finds some space, hold onto your hat, because something special can happen.

Running the ball is important because you’re using up clock and keeping that Jaguars offense on the sideline. The Jags offense is one of the more explosive offenses in the league so it’s imperative that you limit their opportunities as much as possible.

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Have To Get Pressure On Trevor Lawrence

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Colts fans, do me a favor and think about our most recent losses to Jacksonville. The first thing that pops in your mind is probably all the underneath passes the Colts have allowed their quarterbacks to complete and get in rhythm. Once that occurs, the quarterback gets hot and then starts gashing the Colts' defense for big plays.

Frustrating I know, but the Colts now have the recipe that should slow that down a bit. The key to stopping quick game is the Colts' big, physical cornerbacks getting up to the line of scrimmage and disrupting some of that timing. If the Colts can do that, it allows the pass rush a chance to get home.

This Colts pass rush (on paper) is the best one we’ve seen in the Chris Ballard era. An important part of all this as well is that Jacksonville is missing there starting left tackle Cam Robinson. That is a huge advantage the Colts must capitalize on. 

The Jags are starting a rookie in Anton Harrison at right tackle and a unproven player in Walker Little at left tackle. If the Colts want to win this game, it is up to Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and Dayo Odeyingbo to do it from a pressure standpoint. It also helps out your young corners who will have their work cut out for them with these Jaguars receiving options.

Protect The Football

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Let’s be honest here, the Colts offense is not potent enough to withstand a bunch of turnovers and still score at an adequate enough rate to win a game. Luckily for the Colts, they have one of the best guys you can have in the pocket at feeling pressure and escaping. This was a polar opposite for the Colts in 2022, who had Mr. Apple Turnover himself Matt Ryan at quarterback.

The Colts will be able to grind this game out if they can run the ball and avoid the self-inflicted wounds. What you can’t do is go down multiple scores early and force the Colts to evacuate the game plan. If the Colts are forced to drop back and throw the ball a ton, it is going be a tough game for your rookie quarterback to win.

However, if the Colts manage to keep it close, don’t be surprised if they pull it off and end the decade-long Week 1 drought.

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