Why the Colts are Allowing Jonathan Taylor to Seek a Trade

The Indianapolis Colts are calling the bluff of Jonathan Taylor and his management.

The latest development in the Jonathan Taylor saga happened last night when ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Indianapolis Colts have granted Taylor permission to seek a trade.

Taylor requested to be traded on July 25th after the Colts would not engage in contract negotiations with the former All-Pro running back. Shortly after Taylor's trade request became public, owner Jim Irsay stated the Colts would not be honoring his request.

But with the Colts allowing Taylor and his management to find a trade partner, it seems as if Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard are now at least open to the idea of parting with the 2021 NFL rushing champion. The question is, will they?

After getting over the initial reaction to the news and looking at the facts, the likelihood of Taylor being traded remains low. Numerous factors are going against Taylor and his agent, Malki Kawa, to facilitate a deal to get the disgruntled running back out of Indy.

The first factor in all of this is finding a team willing to give Taylor the extension he desires. Taylor is currently in the last year of his rookie deal and will make $4.3 million this season. While an official number has not been reported, Taylor likely wants to be paid at, or near, the top of the running back market with substantial guarantees. The highest-paid running back in the NFL on an average annual value is Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers at just over $16 million.

© Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

It is no secret that the running back position has decreased in value in recent years. Star running backs across the NFL have had issues receiving long-term contracts for the value they are searching for.

Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants was franchise tagged and returned to the team after a short holdout when receiving only $1 million more to his deal. Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders and the 2022 rushing champ is returning after holding out all of training camp due to being hit with the franchise tag. The Minnesota Vikings also released their star running back Dalvin Cook due to his contract, and Cook signed with the New York Jets for much less.

The truth is teams are not willing to pay running backs top money when the shelf life of the position is not very long, and teams have proven they can win without a top running back. That is not to say Taylor cannot help a team win because he certainly can. But it will be tough for another team to want to give him a deal that resets the market.

Another factor is what the Colts are asking in return for Taylor. ESPN's Stephen Holder is reporting the Colts are seeking a first-round pick or a package of picks that equates to a first-round pick in any trade package for Taylor.

Source: The Colts are seeking a first-round pick -- or package of picks that equates to as much -- in a potential Jonathan Taylor trade.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) August 21, 2023

A first-round pick, or the equivalent, is a very high price for a running back in today's game. It is especially high when you consider whatever team gives that up to get Taylor will also need to pay him top dollar. It will be hard to find a team willing to do that.

When McCaffrey was traded from the Carolina Panthers to the 49ers last season, the Niners gave up 2023 second, third, and fourth-round picks plus a 2024 fifth-round pick for McCaffrey. Although McCaffrey is a do-it-all back that excels running the ball and as a pass catcher, it is still a heavy price. The Colts are asking for that type of deal for a running back in Taylor that is not nearly as big of a threat in the passing game as McCaffrey.

The final point that is going against Taylor, and maybe the most important, is his health. Taylor is still nursing an ankle injury he suffered during the 2022 season. Taylor had a non-invasive surgery on the ankle in January with an expected recovery of four to six weeks. Colts' linebacker E.J. Speed had the same surgery and has been 100% for the duration of training camp.

Taylor would have to pass a physical for any trade to become official. If his ankle is not ready to go, he will not be able to join another team. The running back will need to get healthy first.

With all that being said, if a trade is unlikely to happen at this point, why are the Colts allowing Taylor to search for one? The simple answer is that the Colts are in a win-win situation.

Say Taylor and Kawa can find a team willing to pay Taylor what he wants and can give the Colts what they are asking for. Indy can offload Taylor and end the drama while securing high draft capital for an upcoming class that, while it may not have an elite talent like the Atlanta Falcons' Bijan Robinson, looks to have plenty of talent at the running back position.

If Taylor and Kawa cannot find a team willing to pay Taylor what he wants or for the compensation the Colts are asking, Taylor is trapped. Ballard and the Colts are ultimately allowing Taylor find out his worth to the rest of the league. At that point, the Colts hope Taylor will come back, get healthy, and then reasonable conversations can commence.

© Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

This situation is not the first time a running back has been granted permission to seek a trade when dealing with a contract issue. Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers was granted permission by his club to seek a trade after negotiations for a new deal fell flat. Ekeler was asking for a new contract, and the Chargers had a high asking price for any team willing to trade for him. After canvassing the league and failing to find anyone that would do a deal, Ekeler returned to the Chargers and agreed to a reworked deal with more incentives.

The Colts still hold all of the leverage in this situation. The Colts have also made it clear with their asking price that they would rather not part ways with their superstar running back. From Irsay on down, the entire Colts organization has an affinity for Taylor and wants to see him healthy and producing on the field.

If Taylor can get healed up and prove he is back to the 2021 version of himself, there is little doubt the Colts would be willing to offer him a contract extension that puts him among the top-paid running backs in the NFL. Ballard has always said you pay good players, no matter the position. The problem is, that good player wants to be paid now while he is still hurt and has not been seen in new head coach Shane Steichen's offense.

The ball is now in Taylor's court. Regardless of how this shakes out, it's hard to not see the Colts coming out on top.

Want more Colts content? Check out the latest episode of the Horseshoe Huddle Podcast!

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