5 Keys to a Colts Victory Over Jaguars

The Indianapolis Colts haven't defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in a decade and will face off on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks for an open receiver Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

(*Statistics provided are previous to Thursday Night Football)

The Indianapolis Colts have won two straight games as they head into their week five road game against the 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. While Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have looked terrible, Indianapolis was swept last year by Jacksonville and hasn't won on the road there since 2014. With plenty of storylines all over, let's dive into the five keys that Indianapolis must consider if they finally want a victory in Jacksonville.

Limit Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk

Jacksonville's passing attack ranks 28th in the league in yards with 637, showing vast inconsistencies through four losses. However, rookie pass-catcher Brian Thomas Jr. and veteran receiver Christian Kirk are the lone bright spots for Lawrence to target. While it's not shocking that Kirk has been a safety blanket (17 catches for 169 receiving yards and 1 TD), Thomas has been the best playmaker for the Jaguars.

Thomas has as many catches as Kirk, but far more yards with 275 (16.2 average) and 2 touchdowns. The rest of Jacksonville's receiving drops off immensely, especially with tight end Evan Engram sidelined (hamstring). The Colts' pass defense is 26th in yards allowed with 940 (235.0 per game), so we'll see if Kenny Moore II (hip) can return to help a secondary full of depth players and Jaylon Jones.

Air it Out More

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco (15) draws back to pass Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indianapolis is still deliberating on Anthony Richardson's status for Sunday's contest (abdomen). Whether Richardson or Joe Flacco takes the offensive reins, Indianapolis should air it out more against the Jaguars. Suppose Jonathan Taylor can overcome his high-ankle setback and play. In that case, Indianapolis likely grounds it out plenty, but Jacksonville has been better against the run than the pass, and it's not close.

Against the run, Jacksonville boasts the 10th-ranked defense with 429 yards allowed. But, against the pass, they're awful with a whopping 1,091 yards allowed, bad enough for second-worst in the NFL. This means that Josh Downs (short), Michael Pittman Jr. (intermediate), and Alec Pierce (deep) have an opportunity to destroy Jacksonville's will early. The only question is if Indianapolis can put the ball in the endzone because with how bad this Jaguars' defense has been, it's inevitable that receiving yards will accumulate.

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Attack Jacksonville's Offensive Line

The Jaguars are tied with multiple teams in the eighth spot for most sacks allowed with 13, averaging about 4.3 allowed per contest. While Indianapolis has lost big defensive pieces in DeForest Buckner, Samson Ebukam, and Tyquan Lewis to injured reserve they've also had support from their depth talent.

Defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo leads the team in 2024 with 2.0 sacks and is considered a depth piece when the depth chart is at full strength. Odeyingbo started against the Steelers and erupted for 3 tackles (1 for loss) and 1.5 sacks in Kwity Paye's stead, constantly getting in the face of Justin Fields. Also, rookie Laiatu Latu can force a sack or turnover on any defensive down, especially against an offensive line that has struggled like Jacksonville's. If Indianapolis wants to slow down any momentum for Lawrence, constant pressure will be needed to negate voluminous, short-yardage completions.

Target MPJ and Downs A Lot, Again

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (1) celebrates with Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) as he runs into the end zone Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, during a game against the Cleveland Browns at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Wide receivers Pittman and Downs dominated against the Steelers, which likely catapulted the offensive momentum. Pittman had his breakout game for 2024 with 6 catches for an explosive 113 yards receiving (18.8 average). Downs was a fantastic safety blanket with 8 catches for 82 receiving (10.25) yards and a crucial touchdown.

JOSH DOWNS CLEANEST ROUTE RUNNER IN THE DRAFT! ... man I loved this kid https://t.co/a7afX0jC4N

— J Tuck (@jtuck151) September 29, 2024

The Jaguars, as mentioned before, are awful in pass defense. They're also dealing with multiple injuries on the defense, including star pass-rusher Josh Hines-Allen (concussion) and cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring-Injured Reserve).

#Jaguars' Wednesday Injury Report

No JHA (concussion protocol) as expected; no Devin Lloyd either.

Great to see both Darnell Savage and Evan Engram back at practice. Anthony Richardson officially listed as "Limited" (can't say the same for the rest of the #Colts) pic.twitter.com/meBzlYUFUC

— Mia O'Brien (@MiaOBrienTV) October 2, 2024

The Colts must get to high speeds against this defense with Pittman and Downs as the gas and steering wheel. Steichen understands the Jaguars are struggling mightily against the pass and will likely take shots downfield. Whether Richardson or Flacco gets the start, Indy has to heavily involve their top two wide receivers to challenge Ryan Nielsen's defense.

Grover Stewart

Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) and Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle Grover Stewart (90) celebrate a play Saturday, Jan. 6, 2024, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

With Lawrence's immense issues with accuracy (53.3 %), Travis Etienne Jr. has been relied upon to shoulder more of the offensive responsibility. Etienne has 47 carries for 214 rushing yards (4.6 average) and 2 rushing scores. Etienne has also contributed 10 catches for 48 receiving yards. While Etienne is a threat as a receiving back, in 2024 he's been more deadly as a pure RB. This is where defensive tackle Grover Stewart steps in.

Stewart is a true run-stopper, with a solid 77.8 Pro Football Focus run defense mark. He also has a 67.8 pass-rushing grade and will be integral to Indy's success against the Jaguars minus Buckner. Currently, Jacksonville is 13th in the NFL with 505 team rushing yards. Stewart must have a good game against Etienne and Tank Bigsby, or else run the risk of Indy's defense having a horror-style memory of the loss to the Green Bay Packers in week two. Look for #90 to be at the top of his game this Sunday on the road.

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