5 Keys to a Colts Victory Over Lions

The Indianapolis Colts have to play near-perfect football to defeat the Detroit Lions.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) has a hole to run through against the New York Jets defense, Sunday, November 17, 2024, in East Rutherford. / Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts are nearing their week 12 home defense against the Detroit Lions. With Anthony Richardson looking to stack a second-straight shining performance against the NFC's best, it will take a nearly perfect effort from Shane Steichen's offense and Gus Bradley's defense to hand Dan Campbell only his second loss on the season.

Here are the five keys Indy must adhere to if they hope to pull off a shocking upset.

Better Efficiency from Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs with the ball before being taken down by New York Jets defensive end Micheal Clemons (72) Sunday, November 17, 2024, in East Rutherford. / Kevin R. Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Colts running back and top offensive weapon Jonathan Taylor had a low performance against the New York Jets, tallying just 57 rushing yards on 24 carries for an average of 2.4. While Richardson didn't fare much better, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, he only saw 10 totes and scored 2 critical touchdowns. In short, if Indianapolis wants to operate offense efficiently, they'll need much better efficiency from Taylor.

The Colts did start three rookies against the Jets in tackle Matt Goncalves, center Tanor Bortolini, and guard Dalton Tucker, which may have been a contributing factor. Regardless, the Lions rank 5th in rushing yards allowed per game (94.8) and aren't going to make life any easier on Taylor. With left tackle Bernhard Raimann trending down to play (knee), it looks like the Colts will have three rookies again in the trenches. If they hope to make life easier on the defense and Richardson, Taylor has to average over 4 yards per carry and needs 20+ touches again.

Pressure Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) waves at fans as he exits the field after 52-6 win over Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterback Jared Goff has arguably never looked better than in Ben Johnson's scheme in Detroit. So far Goff has been surgical, connecting on 197/270 completions for a blistering 73.0% completion. He complements the phenomenal accuracy with 2,492 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The Colts will have their work cut out to disrupt a composed field general like Goff, but it's possible, and it comes from the interior out.

It begins with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. The duo has 19 and 13 pressures per Pro Football Focus. If this duo can create havoc in Goff's face, it will force far quicker decisions and possible errant throws. As for the pressure from the edge, Dayo Odeyingbo (30 pressures), Laiatu Latu (26 pressures), and Kwity Paye (25 pressures) will need to finish plays with Goff sacked when the opportunity arises. However, it won't be easy since the Lions' elite offensive line has allowed only 18 sacks in 10 games. We'll see if Charlie Partridge can have his unit at the top of their game against one of their toughest collisions.

Smother Amon-Ra St. Brown

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) signals for a first down after making a reception against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, November 3, 2024, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Lions won the game, 24-14. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's no secret how explosive the Lions' offense can be, but it's also consistent. There may not be a receiver in the NFL who showcases that more on the field than Amon-Ra St. Brown. Through 10 contests, St. Brown has been incredible, hauling in 65 catches on 78 targets for 83.3% efficiency. He's also tacked on 685 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns.

Prominent Colts cornerbacks like Kenny Moore II, Sam Womack III, and Jaylon Jones will all likely see action across from St. Brown. Dan Campbell's best pass-catcher hasn't witnessed many down performances in 2024 and will look to feast on another defense after trouncing the Jacksonville Jaguars. If Indianapolis wants to help control the momentum and swing of things, the defense cannot allow St. Brown to gobble up passes underneath. If that happens, Johnson's scheme only opens up more and more for Goff to operate comfortably within.

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Anthony Richardson Must Build Off Breakout Showing

Nov 17, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) celebrates his game winning touchdown against the New York Jets during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Colts QB Richardson had his best career game in week 11, completing 20/30 passes (66.7% completion) for 272 passing yards and a touchdown. He also added 32 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores. Richardson powered Indy's offense with 304 all-purpose yards and 3 touchdowns. But, that was the 3-8 Jets, and this is the 9-1 Lions.

Richardson also coughed up 2 fumbles (1 lost). This will possibly spell doom right away against the Lions. Richardson has to be even better than week 11 to defeat a mighty opponent like Detroit. The Lions also have 14 team interceptions, so Richardson must be on his toes when making decisions from the pocket. The young field general has all the tools to help his squad pull off an upset, it's a matter of carrying over what he did less than a week ago.

Don't Lett Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery Take Over

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5), left, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) warms up before the Green Bay Packers game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. on Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Lions have a dominant rushing attack with weapons David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has been the bruising back, with 137 carries for 595 rushing yards (4.3 average) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. For Gibbs, he's been the explosive player out of Detroit's backfield, notching an excellent 796 rushing yards on 133 carries (6.0 average) and 8 ground scores. Gibbs also has another touchdown through the air, putting his season total at 9 all-purpose.

These two are the heartbeat of Detroit's offense, and the Colts' defensive game plan likely emphasizes that. While Goff, St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta are fantastic, Gibbs and Montgomery are essential in opening up the passing scheme. If Indianapolis' defense front, and linebackers E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin, can limit Gibbs and Montgomery's impact it will give them a realistic chance. This will probably be the most effective path to slow down this brutalizing force of a ground plan.

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