5 Keys to a Colts Victory Over Texans

The Indianapolis Colts are heading to NRG Stadium for a critical divisional clash with the Houston Texans.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Indianapolis Colts (4-3) and Houston Texans (5-2) are set to battle it out for their second season meeting this Sunday at NRG Stadium. With the stakes of this game being so high, there won't be much room for error from Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichen if they want to even the 2024 series at 1-1. With this in mind, here are the five keys to victory for the Colts over the Texans on Sunday.

Better Coverage from Linebackers

Oct 20, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) high fives his teammates as he takes the field during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christine Tannous/IndyStar USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images / Christine Tannous/IndyStar USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images-Imagn Images

While the Colts did limit the Miami Dolphins to just 149 yards passing, the defense against tight ends was awful. The Dolphins' Jonnu Smith caught all 7 targets for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown, dominating the middle of the field. Zaire Franklin (33 coverage snaps) posted a Pro Football Focus grade of 30.0 (the lowest on the team), having no answers for Smith.

This can't happen against the Texans with Dalton Schultz. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is far too good for lax coverage in the middle, so Franklin has to get better at containing tight ends. The Texans are without top pass-catcher Nico Collins, so expect Schultz to see an uptick in targets, especially after how bad Smith torched Indianapolis last week.

Active Quick-Passing Game for Richardson

Oct 20, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) draws back to pass during a game against the Miami Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Grace Hollars/IndyStar USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images / Grace Hollars/IndyStar USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images-Imagn Images

Colts QB Richardson had arguably his best game of the season in week one against the Texans. In the 29-27 home loss, Richardson was 9/19 passing for 212 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception. He also led the team in rushing with 56 yards on 6 carries and another score on the ground. However, Richardson has been wildly inaccurate since and isn't coming off a great performance against the Dolphins.

While his rushing must be praised in the 16-10 win, his 10/24 completions (41.7%) won't cut it against the fourth-best pass defense in the Texans (167.7 yards allowed per game). The 22-year-old also has to shore up his shorter/intermediate accuracy, but Steichen has to call better plays. Screens, RPOs, and quick-win routes are all fantastic options to get Richardson into a rhythm. Indianapolis also has weapons like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs to help that come to fruition. We'll see if practice leading to the week eight battle can help Richardson clean up those issues.

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Get Josh Downs More Involved

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (1) brings in a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Colts' wide receiver Josh Downs was on a tear leading up to playing the Dolphins. The former North Carolina Tarheel had 30 targets, 24 catches, 217 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns in his last three games. But this came to a screeching halt against Miami, as Downs caught just a pass on 3 targets for 3 yards. If Indianapolis wants to win against the difficult defense of the Texans, Downs has to be more involved.

The good news is Indianapolis didn't have Downs in their week one contest with Houston, as he was dealing with an ankle injury. This means that Downs might be in store for a big game, but this can only happen if Richardson can make the throws. It's also worth mentioning the stretch of great games was with Joe Flacco under center, meaning Richardson has to find his stride with Downs on the field this weekend.

Contain Stefon Diggs

Oct 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs (1) warms up before the game against the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With Collins on injured reserve, wide receiver Stefon Diggs will step in as the primary option for Stroud to throw to. Diggs was a quick-win machine against Indy in week one, catching 6 passes on as many targets for 33 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. While these aren't mountainous numbers, Diggs has been as consistent as any receiver the Texans have outside Collins. So far through seven games the veteran leads the Texans in catches (42) and targets (55) and has 415 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns (tied for team lead).

Given that Houston lines up Diggs outside and in the slot, look for Jaylon Jones, Kenny Moore II, and Samuel Womack III to see the former First-Team All-Pro. If the Colts can limit Diggs' impact, it will put more pressure on Tank Dell and Schultz to shoulder the passing game for Stroud.

Don't Let Joe Mixon Have Another Monster Game

Oct 20, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) rushes with the football against Green Bay Packers cornerback Keisean Nixon (25) during the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Texans running back Joe Mixon erupted against the Colts in week one for 159 rushing yards on 30 carries (5.3 average) and a touchdown. He's also coming off a huge game against the Green Bay Packers (25 carries for 115 rushing yards and 2 TDs), so the Colts might make Mixon the top defensive priority on Sunday, especially minus Collins.

While defensive tackle Deforest Buckner is trending toward returning from injured reserve and a high ankle sprain, Indianapolis can't 100% bank on him being fully healthy, if he does play this Sunday. Indianapolis currently has the second-worst-ranked run defense (159.9 yards allowed per game), so it isn't too encouraging to see Mixon next on the schedule after what he accomplished earlier in the year. If Buckner can't suit up again, Grover Stewart, Taven Bryan, and Raekwon Davis must do everything possible to limit the Texans from leaning on Mixon.

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