Indianapolis Colts: Is a Move for Marvin Harrison Jr. Worth Making?

Would the Indianapolis Colts be acting in the name of legacy or lunacy by trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr.?

Dec 29, 2023; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) looks / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts currently hold the 15th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. This position is widely believed among experts to be outside the range necessary to nab Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but, as is the case every year, trades can happen.

While history indicates that this is not the type of aggressive move Colts general manager Chris Ballard would typically make, let’s disregard that knowledge for now.

For the sake of this exercise, let's operate under the assumption that these two things are true:

1. The Indianapolis Colts will draft a receiver with their first pick.
2. The number one receiver prospect on their board is Marvin Harrison Jr.

In reality, neither of these two assumptions is necessarily true, especially the former. While Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen have both echoed the sentiment that they would like to be more explosive in the passing game, multiple areas of the roster need to be addressed, namely in the secondary.

Each draft pick comes with an opportunity cost. Using a first-round pick on a receiver dramatically lessens the chance of finding a true impact player at another position. But again, we’re ignoring this for now.

Regarding Harrison being the number-one receiver prospect on the Colts draft board — this would surprise absolutely no one. Widely considered one of the most complete prospects at the position to enter the draft in recent years, Harrison appears to be the total package, a dynamic X receiver able to fit into any offensive scheme and make an immediate impact.

However, he is not the only highly touted prospect in this draft class. LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze round out what most consider to be the top tier of receivers in this year’s class. Nabers, in particular, would seem to fit the description of “explosive” to a tee with his run-after-catch ability and 4.3 speed. Nevertheless, we will assume Harrison is the guy because his dad is a Colts legend and that’s more fun.

Cost of a Draft Day Trade

Mock drafts around the industry generally show Harrison being selected anywhere from third to sixth overall. For argument’s sake, let's assume the selection the Colts need to obtain to secure Harrison is the fourth pick, currently belonging to the Arizona Cardinals. Harrison may be off the board by this point on draft night. It takes two partners to make a trade, and it is also very possible that the Cardinals would not be interested in trading the pick away regardless. In this case, however, Harrison is on the board, and the Cardinals are willing to trade the pick for a fair offer. What would a fair offer look like?

According to the Rich Hill Trade Value Chart, the value of the fourth overall pick is 491.

Here are the values of the Colts' current picks:

• #15 - 315
• #46 - 128
• #82 - 54
• #117 - 25
• #151 - 12
• #191 - 6
• #234 - 2

Using this chart, picks 15 and 46 combined to come up 48 points shy of the value of the fourth overall selection. The Colts’ third-round selection, pick 82, makes up that difference, but a trade involving no future picks seems unlikely. Since this trade value chart does not provide values for future picks, we will need to look into past draft day trades involving picks in a similar range.

Infamously, in 2021, the San Francisco 49ers traded up from pick 12 to secure the third overall choice. To make this move, they gave up a 2022 first, 2022 third, and a 2023 first-round pick.

Last year, during the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans traded picks 12, 33, a 2024 first-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick to move up to the third overall selection. They also received pick 105 in the process.

These recent trades into the top five paint a picture that varies from the trade value chart above. At least one future first-round pick was given by the team moving up in each instance. A trade that may get accepted could look something like this:

Colts receive:

• Round 1, 2024: No. 4

Cardinals receive:

• Round 1, 2024: No. 15
• Round 2, 2024: No. 46
• Round 1, 2025
• Round 3, 2025

With the trade details ironed out, the Colts have two options to address their wide receiver need. They can either complete the trade outlined above or keep their picks and stay put at 15. The consensus, according to mock drafts, indicates that waiting to make the selection at 15 will see Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze off the board by the time the Colts are on the clock, leaving them to choose a receiver in the second tier of this draft class, whoever that may be.

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Comparing Receivers to Their Draft Position

While Harrison possesses immense potential, there are no guarantees in the NFL Draft. Past top-rated receivers have failed to live up to expectations, succumbing to injuries, off-field issues, or simply struggling to transition to the professional level. Being realistic about the odds of a prospect’s success is key in the player evaluation process. Not all prospects are created equally, but with so many variables affecting their chances of success, we will turn to past data to influence future decisions.

Since the NFL passing game has changed vastly over the decades, only statistics from the past 10 seasons (2014-2023) are being included.

There have been four wide receivers taken in the top five picks of the NFL Draft since 2014.

• Sammy Watkins (2014) fourth overall
• Amari Cooper (2015) fourth overall
• Corey Davis (2017) fifth overall
• Ja’Marr Chase (2021) fifth overall

Of these four receivers, all but Davis have logged a 1,000-yard season in their careers. Only Cooper and Chase have done it more than once. In albeit a small sample size, that’s a 50% hit rate when selecting a wide receiver within the first five picks.

The Colts’ situation in this exercise leaves them essentially choosing between the first wide receiver off the board or the fourth wide receiver off the board. Here is a look at who the first receiver and fourth receiver have been in the past ten drafts.

This is an oversimplified comparison, but it does not show any strong correlation between being the first receiver taken and future NFL success. In fact, it is a small sample representing a large range of outcomes regardless of draft position.

The 2020 NFL Draft is an interesting case worth revisiting. Henry Ruggs III was the first wide receiver off the board (illustrating the unpredictable nature of these prospects’ careers), but ignoring that selection, Jerry Jeudy came off the board next at pick 15. Six more receivers were taken in the following 19 picks, five of which have gone on to outperform Jeudy to this point in their careers: CeeDee Lamb at 17, Justin Jefferson at 22, Brandon Aiyuk at 25, Tee Higgins at 33, and Michael Pittman Jr. at 34.

A team’s gauge of the probability of a prospect living up to the expected outcome will influence their draft process. Undeniably, a team will believe their highest-rated receiver has a higher likelihood of producing than their fourth-rated receiver, but how confident can they be?

The Bottom Line

The risks of trading multiple draft choices for the right to select one player are inherent, regardless of who the player is. To this point in his tenure, Ballard has shown an unwillingness to take that risk in the first round of the draft, even amidst the uncertainty of landing their preferred quarterback, the most pivotal position in the sport, last year.

Even if the Colts’ track record on night one of the draft proved to be more aggressive, history still indicates the difference in career success between the first and fourth receivers selected in each draft does not justify the cost it would take for the Colts to make the move. But history also indicates people named Marvin Harrison are pretty damn good.

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