Gebert: Colts 2024 7-Round Mock Draft Based on History

If Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard could only do what Chris Ballard has already done, how would the 2024 NFL Draft look?

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

One day away from the 2024 NFL Draft and deep into discourse season, Indianapolis Colts fans are yearning to learn which players will suit up in blue and white this upcoming season. The benefit of this being Chris Ballard’s eighth draft as general manager of the Colts is that there is a well-documented history of the types of moves he likes to make.

The NFL Draft is unpredictable. The foremost experts on the draft could correctly guess just 20% of the first-round selections and that would be regarded as a great success. What if we’re overthinking this? What if the key to predicting what the Colts will do is to look at exactly what the Colts have already done and make our predictions that way? Maybe the surprise in this year’s draft for the Colts is that there will be no surprises.

Assuredly, that won’t be the case, but this mock draft is an exercise to that point. Looking back at past drafts and finding the overall selections that the Colts have owned that most closely reflect their current arsenal of picks, we can see how the Colts handled those picks and project who they might target this year when in a similar situation.

Round 1 Pick 15

Closest selections: Malik Hooker, 2017 (Pick 15), Trade for Deforest Buckner, 2020 (Pick 13)

In Ballard’s eighth draft, he finds himself with the same overall selection in the first round he had in his first draft as a general manager. 2017 is an outlier among the rest of Ballard’s drafts. Having just a few months to prepare and drafting players to play under a returning head coach (whom he did not hire) in Chuck Pagano, led to decisions that would be revealed as uncharacteristic of a standard Colts draft under Ballard. However, we can find some parallels that could aid in predicting what Ballard is willing to do with a pick in the teens.

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates after scoring a touchdown. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

The pick: Brock Bowers, Tight End, Georgia

Staying put at pick No.15 in 2017, the Colts watched as a player ranked in the top ten on consensus big boards fell into their laps. Malik Hooker did not perform any athletic tests during the pre-draft process and this lack of measurables could have been part of the reason he slipped out of the top ten.

This year there is another player on the consensus top ten boards who did not do any athletic testing. If Brock Bowers experiences a fall similar to that of Hooker seven years later, the Colts should be excited to see history repeat itself.

Just for fun:

The Colts have owned a pick in the teens two other times in Chris Ballard’s tenure, and each was traded away. The most recent was their 2022 first-round pick (No.16 overall), a conditional pick given away in the Carson Wentz trade. The more straightforward example would be the 2020 first-rounder (No.13 overall) which was given in a straight swap for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

This offseason, another San Francisco player could be on the move. Brandon Aiyuk has generated a lot of buzz around the league as a potential trade target for teams looking for an impact wide receiver. The Colts certainly fit that mold and with the recent extension of the aforementioned Buckner, the Colts could find a way to make the financial aspect of a trade and imminent extension work.

Round 2 Pick 46

Closest picks: Jonathan Taylor, 2020 (Traded Pick 46 for 41), Quincy Wilson, 2017 (Pick 46)

Owning the No.46 overall selection in round two is not unfamiliar for the Colts in recent drafts. As mentioned, the 2017 draft appears to be an outlier when compared to the rest of the Colts’ drafts under Chris Ballard. So with two exact matches to choose from, this selection will model the strategy of the more recent option.

TRADE: Colts send the No.46 (second round) and No.151 (fifth round) picks to the Green Bay Packers for the No.41 (second round) pick.

South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Xavier Legette (17) catches a pass against the Missouri Tigers. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The pick: Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

In 2020, when trying to decide whether to choose Michael Pittman Jr. or Jonathan Taylor, the Colts decided why not both? In an attempt to try to add more explosion to their offense, after selecting one offensive weapon, they traded up to ensure they were able to add a second weapon that checked all of their boxes.

After the selection of Bowers in the first round, the Colts follow the same formula they did in 2020 and make a play for Xavier Legette, a tier-1 Build-A-Ballard fit.

Round 3 Pick 82

Closest picks: Tarell Basham, 2017 (Pick 80), Julian Blackmon, 2020 (Pick 85), Josh Downs, 2023 (Pick 79)

In round three, the Colts have generally addressed team needs with players who can contribute early. The Colts have never owned pick 82 exactly, but they have made several selections within ten slots of where they sit in 2024.

Utah Utes safety Cole Bishop (8) encourages the fans to get loud. / Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

The pick: Cole Bishop, Safety, Utah

In 2020 the Colts drafted Julian Blackmon to compete for a starting role on the defense. They did this via a trade-down from pick 75 to pick 85 and a trade-down could certainly be in the cards here as well if only to recoup a sixth or seventh-rounder.

With a Utah safety available at this spot, though, the fit is too perfect to resist. Once again reliving day two of the 2020 draft, the Colts select Cole Bishop to compete for a starting role immediately in the back end of a young secondary and provide insurance for the possible departure of Blackmon next offseason, the same way Blackmon did for Hooker in 2021.

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Round 4 Pick 117

Closest picks: Jacob Eason, 2020 (Pick 122), Adetomiwa Adebawore, 2023 (Pick 110)

Once day three of the draft begins, finding a starter or even a high-volume role player becomes more difficult. Instead, with picks in this range, the Colts have looked towards the future, drafting players who have great traits, but likely need to sit for a year before becoming a serious contributor.

Mason McCormick (60) talks to another player during practice at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium. / Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA

The pick: Mason McCormick, Guard, South Dakota State

Finding similarities between the two past precedent picks in this range, quarterback Eason and defensive tackle Adetomiwa Adebawore is not easy. Eason was a prospect with great size, but not great athleticism while Adebawore was an undersized prospect with elite athleticism. Eason had an elite trait, though — a rocket for an arm. Both players were drafted because of their elite traits and expected to sit back for at least a year and develop before being needed in any significant role.

The Colts employ the same thinking here with the selection of Mason McCormick. McCormick is an elite athlete on the interior of the offensive line and with nearly every snap returning to the team this season along the offensive line, ideally the Colts would like to future-proof themselves in case of the departures of Ryan Kelly and/or Will Fries at the end of this season.

Round 5 Pick 151

Closest picks: Danny Pinter, 2020 (Pick 149), Daniel Scott, 2023 (Pick 158), Eric Johnson, 2022 (Pick 159)

Traded with No.46 to the Green Bay Packers for the No.41 (second round) pick.

Round 6 Pick 191

Closest picks: Drew Ogletree, 2022 (Pick 192), Robert Windsor, 2021 (Pick 193)

It becomes a little more difficult to find resemblances between past picks around the range of the Colts’ selections when also factoring in the previous picks in this mock and trying to produce a well-rounded draft class. Drew Ogletree was picked just one spot away from the Colts’ selection at 191, but with the Colts already addressing tight end and then adding a second pass catcher in round two, they look towards the defensive side of the ball.

Penn State linebacker Curtis Jacobs (23) pressures West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene (6). / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

The pick: Curtis Jacobs, Linebacker, Penn State

Sitting just two picks away from the spot they hold this year, in 2021 the Colts selected a productive defender out of Penn State to compete for a depth role in a position group with established starters. Defensive tackle Robert Windsor was chosen with the 193rd overall selection to join a unit that had Buckner and Grover Stewart, but little depth behind them.

Here, the Colts have their eye on Happy Valley once again and select linebacker Curtis Jacobs to compete for a roster spot behind starters Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed. Both Windsor and Jacobs measured on the smaller end for their positions and posted good, but not elite athletic testing numbers.

Round 7 Pick 234

Closest picks: Zaire Franklin, 2018 (Pick 235), Jake Witt, 2023 (Pick 236)

The emphasis on acquiring great athletes is apparent even with the Colts’ final draft choices each year. With the Colts selecting two athletic offensive tackles on day three last year, and adding another guard in the fourth round of this mock, they again address the defense.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Javontae Jean-Baptiste (1). / Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

The pick: Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Edge, Notre Dame

Arguably Chris Ballard’s best find came in the seventh round, just one spot later than the 234th selection they currently own. Franklin was an undersized senior defender who posted great athletic testing numbers at his pro day.

With the 234th pick, the Colts follow this mold and once again select an overlooked senior defender who boasts great athletic traits, but measures in a little small for his position. Edge defender Javontae Jean-Baptiste rounds out the 2024 Colts draft class as an older rookie who still has room to develop.

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