PFF Gives Blunt Opinion on Colts' Chances vs Broncos

The betting experts clarified who they favor between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos this Sunday.

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) tackles Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts face a daunting task as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive with a road win against the 8-5 Denver Broncos. However, the Colts possess plenty of talent to pull off the upset and get back to .500 at 7-7 after Week 15.

While Shane Steichen's squad are clear underdogs for this upcoming tilt, the betting experts at Pro Football Focus aren't very confident in the Colts' shot. Daniel Galper and Judah Fortgang get honest regarding the -4 spread for Denver to cover.

The Broncos and Colts are coming off byes in Week 14 and should be well-rested and healthy entering this game. I was surprised to see this line open this short, as the Broncos have been playing high-quality football over their past five games. They rank in the top half of the league in NET success rate and NET EPA+ over that span. Their run defense has been particularly strong, which is especially important against a Colts offense that needs to run efficiently to score points.

- Galper & Fortgang | Pro Football Focus

Anthony Richardson faces a Denver defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (94.7), so the Colts won't have it easy establishing their signal-caller and Jonathan Taylor on the ground. However, the Broncos' stop troops are susceptible to the passing attack, ranking 19th with 221.0 yards allowed per contest through the air. If Steichen can get the pass going, it will help open up the rushing plan. The experts continue.

Although Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off a game where he engineered one of the best comeback drives of his career, he is still unable to consistently put productive drives together, especially when his team cannot run the ball effectively. This isn’t a favorable matchup for the Colts' offense, which won’t be able to lean on its run game to move the football.

- Galper & Fortgang | Pro Football Focus

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While Richardson has much room to improve, he diced the New York Jets defense for 20/30 passes (66.7% completion) for 272 passing yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, yet they were a top-five passing defense. If Richardson did it against the Jets, he can do it against the Broncos. Also, disregarding the talent of Indy's offensive line to ignite the ground game, with injuries, nonetheless, is a bit foolhardy.

Richardson hopes to have Josh Downs back in some capacity as his go-to receiver, along with Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and AD Mitchell. Look for Steichen to have a game plan for a quick passing attack, as it's the most effective way to soften Denver's aggressive defense (47 sacks - leads NFL).

The Colts can't lose against the Broncos this Sunday if they want to make the playoffs. Falling to 6-8 almost certainly denies Steichen's team entry into the postseason. While it might still be possible, it's far more likely to become a reality with a win at Mile High and a second-straight for Indianapolis.

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