Colts’ Playoff Scenarios Intensify

Two regular-season games remain, and the Indianapolis Colts are sitting sixth in jam-packed AFC playoff seeding. And that could change dramatically.

INDIANAPOLIS — In any other NFL season, 10-4 with two games to go would sound secure for a playoff spot.

But not this year, and especially not in the AFC, where the Indianapolis Colts are a tenuous sixth seed with that record after Sunday’s 27-20 home win over the Houston Texans.

The Tennessee Titans are 10-4, too. So are the Cleveland Browns. Both have the tiebreaker advantage on the Colts.

That’s why the Titans control their own destiny for claiming the AFC South Division title and no worse than the fourth seed and a first-round home playoff game. That’s why the Browns sit fifth and, if the playoffs were today (get used to those words in the next two weeks), they would visit the Titans.

It would be an understatement to suggest this is a fluid situation because the Miami Dolphins (9-5) are in the seventh and final AFC spot. And the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) are on the outside looking in, but have beaten the Colts.

Bottom line, there’s one too many teams in the hunt. So somebody is going to be bitterly disappointed after Week 17, regardless of a decent record.

The Colts and Titans have significant road challenges on Sunday which could change the division landscape. The Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2), who are the No. 2 seed but have struggled after an 11-0 start. The Titans visit the Green Bay Packers (11-3), who have the NFC’s best record and are trying to nail down the top seed and a first-round playoff bye.

Since 2011, the Colts have lost sixth straight games to the Steelers, including three at Heinz Field. The Colts lost 26-24 last year at the Steel City, where they haven’t won since 2008, when Peyton Manning was quarterback. But it’s worth noting that the Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win at the Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1) on Monday Night Football.

The Colts on Sunday look to win for the first time in Pittsburgh since 2008 :: Robert Scheer/USA TODAY Sports

The Steelers will still have something play for when the Colts hit town. Quarterback “Big” Ben Roethlisberger’s team is one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) for the AFC’s top seed. Nobody expects the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to stumble, especially with home games against Atlanta (4-10) and the L.A. Chargers (5-9). But the Steelers can’t afford another loss because they lost to the Bills, who could win out and take the No. 2 seed should Pittsburgh get a third loss.

The Titans and Packers haven’t played as frequently, just five times since 2001, and the Titans won four of those games. The one Packers win was at home in 2012. So there’s not much recent history. Their last meeting was in 2016, when the Titans won at home, 47-25.

If the Colts and Titans have anything in common, it’s that they will be favorites in their respective season finales as Tennessee visits the Houston Texans (4-10) and the Colts host the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13).

That’s why Sunday could decide the AFC South.

If the Colts can’t win the division, then it’s back to reviewing the wild-card options. Look at who the Browns, Dolphins, and Ravens finish up against.

The Browns are at the N.Y. Jets (1-13), then finish at home against the Steelers. Yeah, that finale could have a lot riding on it for both teams.

The Dolphins are at Las Vegas (7-7) on Saturday night, then at Buffalo (11-3) in the season finale. The big question for that finale is if the Bills need that game and will play their starters. The Bills are the No. 3 seed and have already clinched the AFC East title and a first-round home playoff game.

The Ravens host the N.Y. Giants (5-9) and are at Cincinnati (2-10-1). Yeah, it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect Baltimore to get to 11-5. Again, that’s why a Colts loss this week could prove costly.

That’s enough analysis for now. After Sunday, the AFC playoff conversation will involve more in-depth speculation on how the tiebreakers could play out.