QB or Not, Colts Still in Good Shape at Pick No. 4

Based on the last decade, the Indianapolis Colts are in a great spot to pick in the NFL Draft at number four overall.

You never want to tell a team before the season that they'll be picking inside the top five of the following draft, but the Indianapolis Colts earned it after a brutal season of football.

They checked off their first big box of the offseason by hiring new head coach Shane Steichen, and now they must address the future of their quarterback position in less than two weeks during the 2023 NFL Draft.

Luckily for them, this is a solid quarterback draft and they'll be picking at No. 4 overall. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis are all sure-fire first-round picks, and they could all make an argument to be the top player at the position.

There's always a possibility that the Colts feel strongly about any of the four and decide to trade up from the fourth pick to secure their guy.

“Yes, I’d do whatever it takes," Colts general manager Chris Ballard said after the season when asked if he'd "move heaven and earth" to get a quarterback that he truly desired. "If we thought there’s a player that we’re driven to get that makes the franchise and the team better that’s what we would do.”

There's also the possibility that the Colts don't love their options at No. 4 and elect not to take a quarterback. Ballard says it multiple times per year: he won't force it.

Regardless if the Colts stay put at No. 4 or trade up, the track record of teams using the fourth-overall pick has been terrific over the last decade.

2022: New York Jets — CB Sauce Gardner, Cincinnati

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Gardner blended terrific size (6'3", 200) and athleticism along with college production (never allowed a touchdown in three seasons) to become a highly coveted cornerback prospect.

He didn't disappoint, quickly becoming one of the NFL's top cornerbacks as a rookie. He was far and away the highest-graded rookie cornerback (88.5), per Pro Football Focus, and was also ranked as their top corner in the entire NFL.

He earned a First-Team All-Pro nod, becoming the first rookie corner since Ronnie Lott in 1981 to do so. He was also one of two rookies named to the Pro Bowl and was a member of the PFWA All-Rookie Team.

Gardner started all 17 games as a rookie, totaling 75 tackles (3 for loss), 2 interceptions, a league-high 20 pass breakups, and 1 quarterback hit.

2021: Atlanta Falcons — TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

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Pitts arrived in Atlanta as the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history and delivered immediately.

His 1,026 receiving yards were the most by a tight end in Falcons franchise history and he became one of just two rookie tight ends ever to reach 1,000 receiving yards. Pitts became the first rookie tight end since Jeremy Shockey in 2002 to be named to the Pro Bowl and was also a member of the PFWA All-Rookie Team.

In two years, Pitts has started 25-of-27 games, totaling 96 receptions for 1,382 yards (14.4 avg.), and 3 touchdowns.

He was PFF's No. 6 tight end as a rookie in 2021 (80.3) and No. 8 in 2022 (72.7).

2020: New York Giants — OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia

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The Giants should be applauded for taking their time and remaining patient while their 2020 top pick took time to grow.

Thomas has started 44-of-45 career games and steadily improved each year. He was graded by PFF at 62.4 in 2020, 78.9 in 2021, and 90.3 in 2022, ranked as the third-best tackle in the NFL.

Although he didn't make the Pro Bowl in 2022, he was named a Second-Team All-Pro.

2019: Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders — DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson

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Ferrell is considered one of the bigger busts in recent memory, but it's not really his fault that he was picked where he was. It was more appropriate for him to be taken in the 20s at the earliest but the Raiders felt the need to take him inside the top five.

He's started 30-of-58 games and totaled 105 tackles (15 for loss), 10.0 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 11 pass breakups, and 32 quarterback hits.

He became a free agent this offseason after the Raiders declared they would not pick up his fifth-year option, and he was then signed by the San Francisco 49ers.

2018: Cleveland Browns — CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State

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Ward has been a great selection for the Browns and probably still has more that he can show even after five seasons.

He hasn't played a full season yet (missed 16 games total) but has been named to two Pro Bowls (2018, 2021), and as a rookie made the PFWA All-Rookie Team and was a two-time NFL Defensive Rookie of the Week.

Ward has started 65-of-66 games and totaled 239 tackles (9 for loss), 0.5 sack, 2 forced fumbles, 5 fumbles recovered, 13 interceptions, 65 pass breakups, 4 defensive touchdowns, and 5 quarterback hits.

2017: Jacksonville Jaguars — RB Leonard Fournette, LSU

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The word "generational" gets thrown around too much in terms of draft prospects, but from the time he was in high school, Fournette was considered a generational prospect; perhaps as the next Adrian Peterson.

Fournette looked great at LSU and then appeared as if he could continue that in the NFL as he set a handful of Jaguars franchise records. However, he had some injuries and inconsistent play, and things between him and the Jaguars got a little dicey.

He was eventually waived before the 2020 season when he joined Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa won Super Bowl LV that year and Fournette became "Playoff Lenny" in the process, touching the ball 82 times during the postseason for 448 yards (5.5 avg.), and 4 touchdowns.

In total, Fournette has started 61-of-79 games, compiling 1,444 touches for 6,697 yards (4.6 avg.), and 41 touchdowns. He's had two 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

2016 Dallas Cowboys — RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State

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Along with Derrick Henry, Elliott dominated for much of the last seven years, as the pair each have 2,000 more rushing yards than the next player over that time.

Although he's slowed down quite a bit, Elliott had a laundry list of accomplishments through his first few seasons. He is a two-time NFL rushing champion (2016, 2018) and has been named to three Pro Bowls, a First-Team All-Pro, a Second-Team All-Pro, and was on the PFWA All-Rookie Team in 2016.

Elliott has started 102-of-103 games and amassed 1,881 carries for 8,262 yards (4.4 avg.), and 68 touchdowns as well as 305 receptions for 2,336 yards (7.7 avg.), and 12 touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Elliott is coming off of a career-low year statistically, and his best days appear to be in the past. As a result (at his rate of pay), he and the Cowboys parted ways this offseason.

2015: Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders — WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

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Cooper made an immediate impact for the Raiders, posting 1,070 receiving yards en route to being named to the PFWA All-Rookie Team and his first of four Pro Bowls.

After three-and-a-half seasons with the Raiders, things didn't work out and he was traded midseason to the Cowboys. He immediately made an impact, becoming their top receiver over the next few years before being traded again to the Browns for what later amounted to pennies.

Cooper responded to the trade by having one of the best seasons of his career, catching 78 passes for 1,160 yards and a career-high 9 touchdowns.

In eight years, he's started 118-of-125 games and totaled 595 receptions for 8,236 yards (13.8 avg.), and 55 touchdowns. He has the eighth-most receiving yards in the NFL since being drafted.

2014: Buffalo Bills — WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson

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Watkins hasn't lived up to the billing of being a top-five pick, but he has stuck around the league for a decade nonetheless. One of the reasons he hasn't reached his potential is injuries, as he's played just one full season in his career, which was as a rookie. He burst onto the scene, recording 65 receptions for 982 yards (15.1 avg.) and 6 touchdowns. He followed it up the next season, compiling 1,047 yards on 60 catches (17.5 avg.) for another 9 touchdowns.

In nine seasons, Watkins has bounced from the Bills (2014-16) to the Los Angeles Rams (2017), Kansas City Chiefs (2018-20), Baltimore Ravens (2021 and 2022), and Green Bay Packers (2022). In 111 career games (96 starts), Watkins has caught 364-of-622 targets for 5,384 yards (14.8 avg.), and 34 touchdowns.

He's currently a free agent.

2013: Philadelphia Eagles — OT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma

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When you talk about the best right tackles in football, the conversation really begins and ends with Johnson. Not much changes when you start discussing the best offensive linemen overall.

He's been dominant and a model of consistency throughout his 10 years, starting all 127 games in which he's played. According to PFF, Johnson has graded below an 80.0 overall in just three seasons, including 2020 where injuries and COVID limited him to just seven games. Johnson is nearly 33 years old but hasn't slowed down, allowing only 2 sacks in the last four seasons, including none over the last two years.

The NFL's premiere right tackle has earned three All-Pro nods (two First-Team) and four Pro Bowls.

It's one of the worst-kept secrets in the NFL that the Colts are likely to select a quarterback with their first pick. However, Ballard isn't taking the bait and tipping his hand.

“No, I wouldn’t be surprised," he said when asked if he'd be surprised if the Colts didn't pick a quarterback first. "It’s the fourth pick of the draft. We earned that. I don’t like earning it, but we did. I’ve said this before and I think history proves me right, I can take one. We can take one as an organization and y’all are going to celebrate it and say, ‘We have got the savior for the Colts.’ And then if he doesn’t play well, ‘Why did you take that guy?’

"You’ve got to be right. We’ve got to be right," Ballard continued. "We understand the magnitude of where we’re at in the draft and we understand the importance of the position. To get one that actually you can win with and to be right is the most important thing. Not, if we take one or not – being right.”

So, will the Colts stay put at the fourth pick or trade up? Will they take a quarterback or send their fan base into a tailspin by selecting someone else? We'll see on April 27.

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