Extending Grover Stewart Should Be Colts Top Priority This Offseason
The Indianapolis Colts have a proven track record of extending players fairly early under General Manager Chris Ballard. Right tackle Braden Smith and linebacker Shaquille Leonard received massive extensions in the summer prior to the 2021 season. Superstar Quenton Nelson also knocked out his extension fairly early last year, signing a record-breaking deal in September.
While Colts' fans are eagerly trying to predict the next big in-house contract the team hands out, they should look at a player that has already been extended once by the organization. Defensive tackle Grover Stewart already received an early extension from the Colts, as the team handed him a three year 30 million dollar extension back in November of 2020.
With that bargain of a contract nearing it's end, it is just about time for the Colts to give their stout defensive tackle another extension. In today's article, I take a look at what a potential extension could look like for Stewart and why it would be wise to lock his deal down first prior to looking at other players on the roster.
Extending Stewart is an Easy Decision
A lot of the talk this offseason will be centered around whether the Colts should extend one of (or both of) Michael Pittman Jr and Jonathan Taylor prior to the start of the 2023 season. While there is merit in having that conversation, it is simply safer for the team to extend a player like Stewart at this moment over those two.
Pittman Jr plays at a premium position, so he is going to demand premium money on his next contract. The Colts could be looking at a 20-22 million dollar per year deal (maybe even more!) for a player that hasn't yet emerged as a superstar player. Pittman Jr has been excellent the past two seasons, averaging 93 catches for 1,000 yards per season over that span, but is he worth the same level deal that players like Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, or Terry McLaurin have received? It's a difficult conversation to have.
When it comes to Jonathan Taylor, that conversation is more around the valuation of the running back position and the fear of a potential drop off in play. Taylor, a former First Team All-Pro, is likely worth the 14-16 million dollar per year deal he could get, but he is coming off the first season in his career where he missed time due to injury. The constant fear of the running back wall always looms over these deals.
With the uncertainty of these two deals, and the complexities that surround them, the main focus has to turn to a player like Grover Stewart as soon as possible. Stewart, 29, may not seem like an obvious re-sign candidate for a retooling team at his age, but the numbers support nose tackles maintaining strong play well into their later 20's and 30's.
For instance, this past season, the average age of the top 11 defensive tackles in run defense (per Pro Football Focus) was a little over 29 years old. Four of the top 11 defensive tackles in run defense stops came in over the age of 30 last year as well (Aaron Donald, Cameron Heyward, Lawrence Guy, and Al Woods).
Even if you take a look back on some recent contracts handed out to nose tackles in Grover Stewarts' age range, they typically come out as good value in the end. Unheralded nose tackles such as Lawrence Guy, Al Woods, and Tyson Alualu have been able to have strong seasons of play well into their thirties.
The other aspect to this is just what Grover Stewart means to this team. He is a homegrown player that has risen up from day three pick to one of the better starting nose tackles in the NFL throughout his career. He is beloved in the locker room and his play on the field has gotten better and better each and every season.
Giving a player like Stewart a 2-3 year extension this offseason makes sense in so many ways for the Colts. He is a core player both on the field and off the field, and there is no reason to believe that his play will fall off after getting that extension. To me, getting this deal done is an easy decision for the Colts.
Potential Extension Numbers
There are two contracts that the Colts need to keep an eye on when it comes to a potential Grover Stewart extension; Dalvin Tomlinson's recent contract (Cleveland Browns) and DJ Reader's pending extension (Cincinnati Bengals).
Tomlinson is the easiest comparable player to look at right now because he is also a nose tackle that hit the market at the age of 29 (Stewart is 29 right now and will be 30 by the time free agency hits next season). Tomlinson just received a four year, 57 million dollar deal from the Cleveland Browns, giving him an average annual value of 14.25 million.
That seems like a good spot to get to with the Colts and Stewart, as the two players are fairly comparable and it would be a healthy increase from where Stewart was on his last deal (with an annual average value of 10 million). The only potential wrench that could be thrown in here is the pending extension for DJ Reader.
Reader hit free agency the cycle prior to when Stewart received his extension from the Colts. Reader managed to get a bit more on the open market, but he was a bit more established than Stewart was back at that time. With both players being around the same age now (and of similar quality), they could be waiting for the other to get in an extension first before negotiating with their current teams.
So, the Colts likely want to try an hammer out a deal with Stewart prior to Reader getting an extension just to keep the overall number down. The other minor factor to consider in this entire conversation is the utter randomness that is sacks and how it plays into contract talks.
Stewart is an extremely high floor player that will still be worth quite a bit even if he has a slightly down season, but what happens if he lucks into a few extra sacks this upcoming year? If the Colts wait until next year to extend Stewart and he happens to get 5-7 coverage sacks this year, his price tag could increase to closer to Vita Vea's number (17 million average annual value) without seeing a massive increase in play.
With all that being said, the most likely deal for a player of Stewart's ability and position would be something in the ball park of two years for 29 million or three years for 43.5 million. That would give him an average annual value of around 14.5 million, which would come in slightly above Dalvin Tomlinson's contract he got on the open market last year.
The Bottom Line
Grover Stewart is one of the best nose tackles in the entire league, and the Colts are fortunate enough to benefit from his high level of play every season. The team would be smart to extend this team leader sooner rather than later this offseason.
In an offseason where several big name offensive players are up for extensions, the safest (and easiest) decision is to extend Grover Stewart for a few more years.
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