Indianapolis Colts Projected Win Total

After over 1,000,000 simulations from NFL.com, what is the projected win total for the Colts?

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert according to NFL.com, and she created a simulation to project the win total for every NFL team.

Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, scheme and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). Cynthia's simulations included 1,000,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 272,000,000 total games "played."  - NFL.com 

Frelund's model projects the Indianapolis Colts with 10.3 wins, good for third in the AFC behind the Buffalo Bills (11.7 wins) and Kansas City Chiefs (10.7 wins) and good for sixth in the NFL overall. 

With each game being run over 1 million times, there was obviously some variance in every season that was simulated. In this case, the Colts ceiling for wins was 12.1 wins and a floor of 9 wins. 

The Colts look to be a steady bet to make the playoffs with a small variance between their floor and ceiling.

One reason for the confidence in the Colts to win games is running back Jonathan Taylor, arguably the top offensive weapon in the NFL.

My favorite Jonathan Taylor stat from 2021: His rush yards after contact (1,272, per Pro Football Focus) exceeded the total rushing yards produced by any other player (Nick Chubb ranked second in the league with 1,259 total rush yards). While Taylor might not be asked to carry as big a workload in 2022 -- he was responsible for a whopping 36.8 percent of the team’s scrimmage yards in 2021 -- the 23-year-old is likely to sustain or even improve his effectiveness on the touches he receives. - Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com

Colts head coach Frank Reich discussed with the media earlier this week they are wary of the workload Taylor will carry, and having quarterback Matt Ryan, one of the NFL's most prolific passers, on board should help balance the load.

Optimism has been high with the Indianapolis Colts heading into the 2022 season, and Frelund's projection is another log on the fire.

Anything short of the playoffs in 2022 will be deemed a disappointment with the roster assembled.