Colts' Jonathan Taylor Contract Extension Could Dictate RB Market
In recent seasons, the running back position has dropped off in value for NFL teams. In 2023 it has seemingly fallen off of a cliff. When the Minnesota Vikings decided to cut ties with superstar back Dalvin Cook by releasing him to the open market, it was made crystal clear that franchises just don’t put their bank into the back anymore.
Many teams have turned to more of a cheaper, “committee-like” approach to the running back position. Or, they’ve turned to later-round picks that can pan out due to the right offense. A perfect example is Kansas City Chief’s Isiah Pacheco, who was a solid starting running back in Andy Reid’s offense. However, he was a seventh-round draft pick out of Rutgers. This showed the league that you don’t have to go overboard on running back for it to work on a high level.
The one exception is a running back who truly carries the weight of an offense. Backs such as Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints), Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns), Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans), and Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers) are such running backs. The last one is Indianapolis Colts thoroughbred Jonathan Taylor, who is the lone one due for an extension. With this in mind, it’s time to dive into why Taylor’s possible extension is highly important for the current and future value of the running back position.
Pro Football Focus’ own Brad Spielberger had an insightful piece titled “Most Important Upcoming Contract Negotiation at Each Position.” For the running back, it’s no surprise that Taylor is the entry. Spielberger’s breakdown is of solid thinking.
The value of Taylor’s extension this offseason if he signs one, will truly be a watershed moment for the NFL and the running back position. One week before the Colts traded up in the second round for Taylor, the Carolina Panthers signed Christian McCaffrey to a four-year extension worth just more than $16 million a year. No back has come particularly close since.
All Taylor has done since draft day is win a rushing title in his second season to go along with a first-team All-Pro nod. And while he’s not the pass catcher that McCaffrey is, he’s still a three-down back with the ability to make defenders miss in space after hauling in a target.
The franchise-tagged workhorse backs in Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley have only a week left to negotiate long-term deals before they’re locked into the tag for 2023, and talks don’t appear to be going great. Two players who ranked in the top five in total touches in 2022 with pass-catching ability should get strong deals, but neither general manager currently in place was responsible for drafting them like Colts general manager Chris Ballard with Taylor.
If Taylor can’t get up into the $15 million-per-year range, alarm bells should go from a low drum to a full-on siren for his positional peers.
Spielberger isn’t wrong here. If Taylor does get that extension and it’s agreed to be somewhere in the four-year/$50 million range, it could spell issues for years to come for the position. Taylor is among the higher-end of the aforementioned superstars, with some considering him the best running back in football. $12.5 million per year isn’t superstar money.
However, I don’t believe this needs to be a worry.
The Colts know full well what Taylor did for that offense in 2021. With a below-average QB in Carson Wentz and a somewhat underwhelming receiving corps where Michael Pittman Jr. was the biggest threat by a mile, Taylor was an MVP-level player who was the NFL rushing king in multiple categories.
While 2022 was a bad down year, he was still on track for around 1,331 rushing yards and about six rushing TDs if he plays all 17 contests. I think that the Colts will give Taylor his earned deal.
For my prediction, it’s a four-year/$64 million deal that will match McCaffrey’s yearly average. This won’t smash the button to “pay running backs” to every team but will help maintain the understanding that you need to pay superstar backs, too.
Regardless of the NFL’s pass-heavy approach, there are still teams who lean on the run with a new-age mobile QB gameplan, like what Indy will undoubtedly do with rookie Anthony Richardson when he suits up.
Taylor is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league and has been for a few years at this point. With how much general manager Chris Ballard understands that Taylor’s inclusion in a new Shane Steichen offense is one of the biggest reasons why it could be so lethal, the franchise will give the money that Taylor deserves. That amount should be among the best in the NFL at his position.
