Predicting Michael Pittman Jr.'s Potential Colts Contract Extension

The Indianapolis Colts should be prepared to give star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. a big payday this spring.

The Indianapolis Colts have a big decision to make over the next few months as star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is set to become a free agent.

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Pittman has blossomed into the Colts' top receiving option. The former USC Trojan has continued to produce effectively despite inconsistency at the quarterback position. Pittman has caught passes from seven different quarterbacks in four seasons.

For his career, Pittman has totaled 336 catches for 3,662 yards and 15 touchdowns. Pittman is also coming off a career year in 2023, racking up 109 catches for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns. With a new contract on the way, it was perfect timing for Pittman to play his best ball.

Although Pittman will be a free agent in March, the Colts have expressed a strong desire to bring him back on a long-term extension. Pittman would like to return to the organization that drafted him four years ago as well. The question is, what will it cost to keep Pittman in Indy for the foreseeable future?

Let's look at how the Colts have handled wide receiver signings in recent years and what players similar to Pittman's level have signed for to help predict the details of a potential extension.

Ballard's Wide Receiver History

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Since becoming the general manager of the Colts in 2017, Chris Ballard has taken a cautious approach to paying wide receivers. Ballard has focused on short-term deals that present a low-risk, high-reward situation. The results have been less than stellar.

Here are the contracts Ballard has given out to wide receivers in the seven offseasons he has been at the helm for the Colts:

• Isaiah McKenzie (2023): One-year, $1.23 million deal
• Ashton Dulin (2023): Two-year, $7.2 million deal
• T.Y. Hilton (2021): One-year, $8 million deal
• Zach Pascal (2021): One-year, $3.38 million deal
• Devin Funchess (2019): One-year, $10 million deal
• Ryan Grant (2018): One-year, $5 million deal
• Kamar Aiken (2017): One-year, $2.6 million deal

None of these wide receivers produced at a high level after signing their deals. The best performances came from Hilton and Pascal in 2021 when both tallied over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

But this is an entirely different situation with Pittman. Pittman is entering the prime of his career as the Colts' top receiving option. If he returns, he will continue to be the focus of the Colts' passing attack.

The smaller value of the deals given out to wide receivers by Ballard should not cause alarm either. Ballard has been more than willing to pay top dollar when re-signing his best players. Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith, and Grover Stewart immediately come to mind.

The same will likely be true for Pittman. Ballard expressed his desire to keep the WR1 one in Indy during his season-ending presser.

“I care deeply about him," Ballard said about Pittman. "We have a really good relationship. It’s an honest one – almost too honest I think sometimes. But that’s what I love about him. The guy is competitive. He’s tough. He cares. He wants to win. We’re going to work to get him back. We’ll work through that. ... Pitt is a good football player for us and hopefully he still remains a Colt.”

The Colts are willing to give Pittman a big deal to keep him long-term as long as it works for both parties. Other contracts around the league will help the sides find common ground during negotiations.

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Comparable Players to Pittman

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When negotiations begin, teams and agents use other contracts around the league to help set the market for a potential deal. Pittman's negotiation will be no different, as agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First will handle the wide receiver's new deal.

For a better idea of where Pittman's next contract may land, it is best to look at wide receivers who compare to him in production, value to their team, and who have signed their deals within the last few seasons. The players most comparable to Pittman are A.J. Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles, DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks, Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders, and DJ Moore of the Chicago Bears.

All four of these wide receivers serve as the primary target for their teams and have produced at the level of a WR1 in the NFL. Each of them also signed their long-term extensions during the 2022 offseason, meaning they accurately represent the wide receiver market.

When comparing the production of these four receivers to Pittman, here are each receiver's total statistics for the two seasons (2020-2021) before signing their extensions:

• Brown (27 games): 133 catches, 1,944 yards, 16 touchdowns
• Metcalf (33 games): 158 catches, 2,270 yards, 22 touchdowns
• McLaurin (32 games): 164 catches, 2,171 yards, nine touchdowns
• Moore (32 games): 159 catches, 2,350 yards, eight touchdowns

The averages for these categories come to 31 games, 154 catches, 2,184 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, Pittman has totaled 32 games, 208 catches, 2,077 yards, and eight touchdowns. While Pittman ranks first in catches by a wide margin, he ranks fourth in yards and tied for fifth in touchdowns.

After seeing how the wide receivers stack up production-wise, here are the extensions each received before the 2022 season and their average annual value (AAV):

• Brown: Four-year, $100 million deal ($25 million AAV)
• Metcalf: Three-year, $72 million deal ($24 million AAV)
• McLaurin: Three-year, $68.36 million deal ($22.79 million AAV)
• Moore: Three-year, $61.88 million deal ($20.63 million AAV)

The past extensions given to these four give the Colts and Pittman's camp a ballpark to start negotiations. Both sides will likely make claims to drive the price in their favor, but as Ballard loves to say, "The market is what the market is."

Big Payday Incoming

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With his continued production over the past few seasons and the rise of the wide receiver market, Pittman is in line for a nice payday this spring. Pittman is open to testing the free agent market, but with how important he is to the Colts and Ballard's desire to retain him, it would be a shock to see the wide receiver in another uniform next season.

After looking at the comparable players around the league and their deals, a realistic contract extension for Pittman would be a three-year, $70 million deal ($23.33 million AAV). The extension would make Pittman the eighth-highest-paid wide receiver in terms of AAV and set the record for the largest contract given to a wide receiver in Colts' franchise history. 

The three-year deal would also allow Pittman to hit the free agent market again when he is 29 years old. He could cash in on a second big-money deal before he turns 30 if he continues to ascend and put up numbers with quarterback Anthony Richardson. The three-year deal would also put him on the same timeline as Taylor, who signed a three-year, $42 million extension in October.

The Colts cannot afford to lose their top wide receiver as they build around their young quarterback. Pittman has been a great asset to this team on and off the field, and the Colts believe he can continue to improve. If Richardson and Pittman can get on the same page and help usher in a new era of winning football to Indy, the contract extension will be well worth the investment.

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