NFL Picks: Conference Championships

Time to decide which teams advance to Super Bowl LV. Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers become the first team to play a Super Bowl at home? They must knock off Green Bay to get back to Tampa. In the AFC, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the underdog Buffalo Bills.

The AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games promise to provide intriguing must-see TV on Sunday.

Hobbled but undaunted quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen in an AFC matchup of two of the NFL’s best, young passers at Arrowhead Stadium at 6:40 p.m. (CBS-4 TV). Mahomes is 25 and Allen 24. The Bills are trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 postseason, when Buffalo lost the title game for a fourth consecutive year. But, alas, the Chiefs are defending champions and favored to return.

The NFC showdown matches two of the all-time great quarterbacks as 37-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host 43-year-old Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lambeau Field. The forecast includes an 80 percent chance of snow early in the day. Question is, will the elements be a factor when the game kicks off at 3:05 p.m. (FOX-59 TV)?

The Packers earned the No. 1 seed with a 13-3 regular season and advanced to this game with a 32-18 home win over the L.A. Rams. The Buccaneers (11-5) had to win back-to-back road games in defeating Washington 31-23 and New Orleans 30-20. It’s worth noting that one of the Packers’ losses was to the Buccaneers in Week 6 at Tampa, a 38-10 rout that was easily Green Bay’s worst game of the season.

Aaron Rodgers had perhaps his best season in 2020 :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

There’s no denying Brady’s greatness as a six-time Super Bowl winner, four-time Super Bowl MVP, and three-time NFL MVP, among other distinctions. But nobody had a better season than Rodgers, the Super Bowl XLV MVP looking to earn his second ring. Rodgers completed 70.7% percent of his passes for 4,299 yards with 48 TDs and just five interceptions. The completion percentage was the highest in his 13 seasons as a starter.

The Buccaneers ranked sixth in total defense while the Packers were ninth. But don’t expect Rodgers to have another lousy game like last time, when he threw two costly interceptions in the second quarter — the first returned for a touchdown and the second brought back to the Packers’ 2-yard line, eventually resulting in another TD.

The hunch is that Rodgers will make enough plays to advance. Based on how incredible he’s been, this seems like destiny.

In Kansas City, Mahomes has been cleared from the concussion protocol and is good to go against the Bills. He’s still dealing with a sore toe injury, but the Super Bowl LIV MVP was second in the NFL with 4,740 passing yards despite skipping the regular-season finale. He had 38 TD passes and just six INTs.

Patrick Mahomes cleared concussion protocol late this week :: Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

Allen’s third-year emergence as an MVP candidate has Bills Mafia fans believing anything is possible. He completed 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards and 37 TDs with 10 interceptions.

The safe pick is the Chiefs and the NFL’s No. 1-ranked offense. But don’t sleep on the Bills, who ranked second in scoring at 31.3 points per game while the Chiefs were sixth at 29.6 ppg.

This has all the makings of an offensive shootout — the Bills defense ranked 14th in fewest total yards allowed while the Chiefs defense was 16th. The Chiefs tied with the Indianapolis Colts for 10th in fewest points allowed at 22.6 per game while the Bills were 16th at 23.4 points allowed.

Because most pundits are picking the Chiefs, here’s a vote for the unexpected in choosing a Bills upset. Crazy? Sure, but these picks are always submitted for fun. And it will be more fun pulling for the underdogs instead of playing it safe.

Good luck, pickers!

PhilB’s Picks

Buccaneers at Packers — Packers

Bills at Chiefs — Bills

Divisional — 3-1 (.750)

Playoffs — 7-3 (.700)

Overall — 180-85-1 (.679)

(While these picks are for entertainment purposes only, SI recently launched our Premium Betting Membership backed by Vegas Insiders. SI Fantasy PRO members get real-time betting alerts whenever information comes in. Our NFL, CFB, and MLB plays and information delivered to SI PRO members have gone 177-118-2 YTD so far in 2020.)