NFL Draft Order Update: Could Colts get No. 1 Overall Pick?

There is a path to the No. 1 overall draft pick for the Indianapolis Colts.

As the losses keep mounting for the Indianapolis Colts, their draft position keeps rising higher and higher, but they moved up a spot in the 2023 NFL Draft order from No. 6 to No. 5 while watching everyone else on Christmas.

The Colts were always going to move ahead of the winner of the Denver Broncos vs. LA Rams on Christmas Day. The Rams convincing win over the Broncos moved them to No. 7. 

The Rams don't mind, their pick goes to the Lions anyway.

The Colts lost a chance to move up even higher when the Arizona Cardinals blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the Cardinals had won, the Colts would have had the No 4 position.

Indianapolis plays the LA Chargers on at 8:15 EST on Monday Night Football, and a loss would keep them in the No. 5 spot. A win drops them behind the Atlanta Falcons (5-10) and Rams (5-10) back to No. 7. 

Should the Colts lose, the last two weeks of the season become even more interesting after the Houston Texans upset the Tennessee Titans 19-14 on Saturday.

It's possible, though improbable, that the Colts choose No. 1 overall in April.

Path to the No. 1 Overall Pick:

Colts Lose their final three games.

The Texans moved to 2-12-1 and could match the Colts four wins if they win their final two games. Houston hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars before finishing their season on the road against the... Colts. If both teams finish 4-12-1, the tiebreaker would come down to strength of schedule which is virtually even right now. 

The Chicago Bears are 3-12 and would need to win both of their games... a longshot considering they've lost eight in a row. The Bears will be underdogs at Detroit and finish their season at home against the Vikings.

The Broncos need a win. Also improbable. Denver looked awful on Christmas Day against the then 4-10 Rams, losing 51-14. The Broncos will be heavy underdogs in Kansas City next week before finishing their season at home against the Chargers.

Arizona needs a win. If the Broncos aren't the worst team in the NFL, the Cardinals are. Arizona nearly had the win that would have pushed them below the Colts on Sunday night, but fell victim to a Tom Brady comeback. Arizona finishes at Atlanta and at San Francisco. They might find a win in Atlanta, but they don't match up well with the Falcons' running game.

Realistically, the Colts are sitting at No. 5 now, and that's likely where they'll finish. The Falcons likely beat the Cardinals, and if the Colts beat the Texans, the one team to watch behind them are the Rams.

The Rams are at Chargers and at Seattle to finish the season. If they lose both of those and the Colts win just one of their next three games as oddsmakers will predict, Rams get the No. 5 pick and Indianapolis would pick sixth.

Updated NFL Draft Order

1. Houston Texans (2-12-1)
2. Chicago Bears (3-12)
3. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver 4-11)
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-11)
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)
6. Atlanta Falcons (5-10)
7. Detroit Lions (via Rams 5-10)
8. Carolina Panthers (6-9)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (6-9)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans 6-9)