PFF Predicts Colts to Land 3 of Top 50 Free Agents

As the start of free agency draws near, Pro Football Focus predicts that the Indianapolis Colts will sign three of the top 50 free agents, plugging major holes on the roster.

Cap space is key ahead of the 2021 season coming off of a tough year for the NFL overall. Few teams have more cap space than the Indianapolis Colts and General Manager Chris Ballard ahead of the start of the new league year on March 17.

With franchise tags, roster cuts and other roster movements completed, Pro Football Focus finalized its Top 50 free agents list and made predictions on landing spots for each free agent, including an anticipated deal.

Previously urging the Colts to be "big spenders" in free agency, Pro Football Focus predicted the Colts to land three of the top 50 free agents ahead of the start of free agency.

In the free agency article, PFF paired the Colts with a receiver, pass protector, and defender, predicting that the Colts will hand out $159.5 million in free agent contracts.

Following the trade for Carson Wentz, Pro Football Focus predicts the Colts to sign former Houston Texan Will Fuller V to a 5-year, $87.5 million deal with $25 million guaranteed.

Here's what PFF had to say about a Fuller pairing with the Colts:

"The Will Fuller-to-Green Bay story has been around for many months now, but with Emmanuel Sanders officially a cap casualty, I’d expect the Packers to go the cheaper route with Sanders. Fuller is a prime candidate to go back to Indiana, where he played in college for the Fighting Irish. He is a genuine speedster who has proven to be one of the most dangerous deep threats at the position when healthy. Over 26% of Fuller’s targets since 2018 have resulted in a 15-plus-yard gain, the eighth-highest percentage among wide receivers over that span. Despite missing significant time in each of those three seasons, Fuller came in at No. 8 in total receiving yards on vertical targets where he had separation on his coverage defender."

 The Colts should be more than familiar with Fuller, having faced him twice a year for the last five years. With T.Y. Hilton a free agent, there's an obvious need for a No. 1 wide receiver, which Fuller showed he could be last season before a PED suspension wiped out his 2020 season.

Knowing he still has a few games left to serve in his suspension, Fuller might not command that large of a deal on the open market, at least in 2021. The fit is certainly there though as Fuller is a legitimate deep threat and would pair well with the physical duo of Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal, and the explosive Parris Campbell.

Aside from the Fuller V prediction, PFF also predicts the Colts to sign veteran left tackle Alejandro Villanueva away from the Pittsburgh Steelers in free agency, handing the former Army Ranger a 3-year, $45 million contract with $30 million guaranteed.

"With the retirement of Anthony Castonzo, the Colts require a new left tackle and could opt to bring in veteran Alejandro Villanueva to man that spot and perhaps mentor a young Day 2 pick from the 2021 NFL Draft. Over the last three years, Villanueva ranks 12th among all left tackles in pass-block grade and has routinely done his job in the ground game with a negatively graded run-block rate that sits in the 82nd percentile at the position."

In a slim free agent market at left tackle, Villanueva might be the best one available behind San Francisco's Trent Williams on the market. Though he took a step back in pass protection overall and isn't much of a run blocker, he's a reliable veteran that rarely misses a snap, let alone games.

The good news with a Villanueva signing is that it wouldn't block the Colts from grabbing a young left tackle on Day 2 of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Finally, Pro Football Focus predicts the Colts to sign cornerback Chidobe Awuzie away from the Dallas Cowboys in free agency, signing the former Colorado Buffaloes star to a 3-year, $27 million deal with $15.5 million guaranteed.

"Awuzie is a pure zone corner by nature, which means he’s not necessarily a fit for new Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. He has ties to Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, as they were both with the Cowboys in Awuzie’s rookie 2017 campaign. Plus, Indianapolis is in the market for a zone corner because 2019 second-rounder Rock Ya-Sin hasn’t shown the requisite growth. They aren’t going to completely abandon Ya-Sin, as he still has some time to right the ship, but starting him would be a risky bet. Eberflus’ zone coverage usage this past season was the second-highest in the NFL, behind only Brandon Staley’s Los Angeles Rams, at 76.6%. We pegged Awuzie as a great fit for a zone-heavy scheme coming out of college, and his NFL numbers back that up. Since entering the NFL, he ranks 48th of 70 cornerbacks in coverage grade when in single coverage. In zone, he jumps all the way to 19th."

While I agree with PFF's stance that Rock Ya-Sin hasn't shown the necessary growth to this point in his career, I don't agree with the prediction by PFF to bring in Awuzie, who has been torched in the last few years.

Though Awuzie is much better in a zone-heavy scheme, which the Colts run at a high rate, I would stay away from handing out big money to a guy coming off of a poor season on one of the league's worst defenses in 2020.

Overall, I just can't see Ballard throwing that much cash around for outside players in free agency. The one position I could see Ballard spending big money on is left tackle to replace Anthony Castonzo, who retired in January. Villanueva makes sense as the Colts want to do everything possible to protect their investment in Wentz, but adding Fuller V on a big deal and Awuzie on a sizeable deal simply doesn't make sense from the Colts' historical philosophy under Ballard.

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