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EPA in NFC East: Cowboys, Redskins top-10 pass attacks through Week 2, Manning ew

A review of the best QB, WR and RB players, and the best plays in the division in Week 2.

Dan Morse

Two weeks into the season and we are already seeing a leader emerge in the NFC East.  Dallas, led by another incredibly efficient outing from Dak Prescott, took down Washington 31-21, though Washington's offense did put up 21+ points for the second straight week.  The Giants got beat up again, this time by the Bills, while the Eagles nearly scraped away another victory in spite of Carson Wentz's 2 interceptions and 5.37 Y/A.

Let's take a look at the advanced stats box scores to see how everyone did in terms of expected points.  

A reminder about what that means: Expected Points uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play, based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.  Success rate is defined as the percent of plays with a positive EPA.

Ben Baldwin | http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores

Ben Baldwin | http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores

Ben Baldwin | http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores

Washington again saw success through the air, but Adrian Peterson wasn't much more effective than Derrius Guice, and they fell to the increasingly impressive Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys now feature the best pass attack in the league by EPA/dropback after the first two weeks of the season.  Combined with an above average rushing attack, Dallas simply moved the ball too well for Washington to keep up.  Don't get too down on Washington though, as they now feature the seventh-best pass attack in the NFL by EPA/dropback.

The Giants were again held back by a mediocre passing attack led by whatever is left of Eli Manning.  Saquon Barkley continued his strong start to the season, finishing with a top-10 success rate for the week, but it just wasn't enough to overcome a solid outing from the Bills.

The Eagles-Falcons game was a strange one.  Both offenses seemed determined to force the other one to score points, turning the ball over three times apiece.  The Falcons passing game looks better by EPA, helped in large part by a 54-yard, game-winning screen pass to Julio Jones.  The Eagles lost Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson early on in the contest, and Carson Wentz also missed six snaps in the first half, presumably due to the huge hit from linebacker Deion Jones he received in the first quarter.

Before we move on, I'd like to make one more quick point.  Many analysts like to tout the importance of avoiding an 0-2 start, as only around 11% of teams to start 0-2 go on to make the playoffs.  The problem with this argument is that any team that loses twice in a row in a 16 game season has about an 11% chance at the playoffs.  Starting 0-2 is bad, but it's no worse than losing in weeks 7 & 8, or 15 & 16.

So if you team is 0-2, yes, it's bad.  But it isn't the death sentence that some make it out to be.

Week 1 Top Offensive Players

week 2 passing adot

Prescott led the division and finished with Week 2's fourth-highest EPA/dropback across the league.  His average depth of target (ADoT) dropped just a little this week, though we could potentially see it dip even more with the news of Michael Gallup's injury.  Case Keenum looked good again, this time with much shorter passes.  His ADoT dropped nearly two full yards from a week ago, with just over one-third of his passes targeting running backs.

If you're wondering who the dots at the bottom and the far right are, they belong to the Miami quarterbacks.

week 2 receiving

Bennie Fowler might be the de facto No. 1 receiver in New York at this point with the injuries and Golden Tate's suspension.  He's got the highest ADoT on the team and in the division, and added a 20-yard jet sweep on Sunday to really hammer home the speed he brings to the team.  Terry McLaurin is still miles ahead of his teammates in terms of ADoT, and also boasts a pretty impressive EPA/target.  

Gallup has been the Cowboys' main deep threat so far in 2019, but Prescott's efficiency on the shorter passes to Cooper and Witten have been so effective that there may not be a huge dropoff in their efficiency with him out.  The Eagles' wide receivers all got hurt.  Nelson Agholor had a decent game, but we could see some trouble with that passing game moving forward if Jackson and Jeffery miss time.

week 2 rushing

It's pretty clear from this graphic where the teams in the NFC East in terms of rushing.  Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott (and Tony Pollard!) lead the way, while Washington and Philadelphia still haven't found consistency or success on the ground.  Miles Sanders wasn't even much help in the pass game either (4 targets, -2 EPA).  Adrian Peterson didn't have as bad of a game as Guice had in week 1, but still didn't look great at -0.22 EPA/carry.  If Washington can find just a bit more success there, they could find themselves with an above-average, complete offense.

With two weeks in the books, let's take a peek at how some of these NFL offenses are operating by looking at how often they're passing in what might be considered a neutral game script.  I've defined "neutral" as all plays that occurred when the win probability was between 25% and 75%.

week 2 pass rate

While nearly every team is throwing more often than running, only Dallas is throwing at an above-average rate in the NFC East.  

Early on the Giants are having more success running the ball, so they might even look to pass less often.  The Eagles, again, might just need to get everyone healthy before they start passing more.  Washington is an interesting case.  They've got a stark contrast with the seventh-ranked passing offense and 29th-ranked rushing offense by EPA/attempt.

  Finding ways to throw the ball more often in these neutral game scripts could be a way to turn their passing success into wins.

Top Offensive Play

Devin Smith is coming in hot to take over as the Cowboys' deep threat and looked ready to go on this 51-yard touchdown pass.  (4.81 EPA)

Top Defensive Play

Montae Nicholson's interception and 23-yard return off of Dak Prescott in the first quarter was the biggest EPA swing in the division this week.  Last week's big play star Daron Payne gets an assist with the pressure on Dak here too.  (-6.07 EPA)

Looking Ahead

Dallas opened the week as 21-point favorites over Miami.  They're one of the best teams so far this season facing one of the worst teams in recent memory.

Detroit and Philadelphia looks like a story of two teams with a ceiling defined by how well their passing offense works.  Getting at least one of DeSean Jackson or Alshon Jeffery back for Week 3 could be the difference in what might turn into a shootout.

The Giants have a great chance to pick up their first win of the season against a Tampa Bay team that has been even worse at passing than New York, and without the successful running game to make up for it. It will be interesting to see what the move to Daniel Jones means for New York's aerial attack. 

Washington's offense will face their biggest test of the season when the Bears come to town on Monday Night Football.  If Keenum can maintain close to the same level of play he's had thus far against last year's No. 1 defense, Washington should be able to come away with win No. 1.

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Dan Morse
DAN MORSE

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