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NFC East EPA Roundup: Keenum, Wentz, Prescott slip to varying degrees, Jones jumps in

DANIEL JONES SZN

Dan Morse

After the third week of the NFL season, we are finally getting a good idea of how good (or bad) the teams in the NFC East really are, and it's starting to look like a foregone conclusion which team will be winning the division.

A reminder about what that means: Expected Points uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play, based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA. Success rate is defined as the percent of plays with a positive EPA.

The Cowboys' pass attack didn't look quite as impressive as it did the first two weeks, but the run game hit its peak with 0.31 EPA/attempt.  That was second best in Week 3 behind only the Baltimore Ravens and their 4 rushing touchdowns.  While the first half looked a bit shaky, with Dallas nursing a 10-6 lead over the struggling (read: tanking) Miami Dolphins, the second half went according to expectations, with Dallas actually managing to cover the 23-point spread.

The Eagles fell to the undefeated* Detroit Lions, behind an uninspired Carson Wentz performance where he completed barely 50% of his passes, his lowest completion percentage since 2016.

*Tied the Cardinals in Week 1

The New York Giants are undefeated in the Daniel Jones era.  Jones led the team to their best EPA/dropback of the season, which was enough to get them the win despite their worst EPA/rush of the season and a 2.0 yards per carry from their running backs.  Saquon Barkley went down with an ankle injury in the second quarter, so the offense will go only as high as Danny Dimes can take it for the next several weeks.

Washington's offense went up against their first big challenge against the fierce Chicago defense, and failed miserably.  Case Keenum turned the ball over 5 times.  This, coupled with Mitchell Trubisky playing his best game all year, led to a comfortable 31-15 victory for Chicago.

Week 3 Top Offensive Players

week 3 passing adot

Dak Prescott fell back to Earth this week, finishing with about an average EPA/pass.  His average depth of target (ADoT) was still top-5 in the league despite the loss of Michael Gallup.  Daniel Jones was just behind him in both categories, while Carson Wentz was just below average.  Case Keenum's ADoT remains below league average, as Terry McLaurin appears to be his only deep threat and with running back Chris Thompson seeing the second-highest target share on the team.  His first two weeks were impressive, but it seems they could have just been a product of playing the 20th and 21st ranked defenses by DVOA*.

*DVOA is a metric similar to EPA, evaluating each play based on situation, adjusting for opponent, and compared to league average.  More info can be found at FootballOutsiders.com

week 3 receiving

Giants rookie receiver Darius Slayton stood out in his debut with the second-highest ADoT in the NFL.  He saw more targets 25+ yards downfield than he did within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  He hauled in 3 of his targets and finished just shy of 1 EPA/target.  Evan Engram also had a great day for the Giants, finishing in the top-5 among tight ends in EPA/target.

The Eagles were without their top two wideouts this week, and it showed.  Nelson Agholor saw the bulk of the targets, but they were all short passes.  Half of his 12 targets were within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage, and only one traveled more than 7 yards through the air.  Rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside doesn't appear to be ready to take on a big workload, as he caught just 1 of 3 targets for 10 yards.  Rookie Miles Sanders didn't make this chart because he only had 4 targets, but his two receptions both went for more than 30 yards.

Amari Cooper saw a bump in his ADoT this week, while Devin Smith saw a larger workload, both likely tied to the loss of Michael Gallup.  Cooper finished with the sixth-best EPA/target among wide receivers with 5+ targets.

Terry McLaurin has cemented himself as Washington's No. 1 receiver, which means he can't just run downfield every play. His aDOT and EPA/targe are still best on the team, but it just wasn't enough to get by Chicago's defense. Trey Quinn had a brutal day by EPA, almost entirely driven by the pick-5 that occurred on a target to him in the second quarter. 

week 3 rushing

  This chart is an accidental depiction of how rushing success can be largely a team stat, as opposed to a running back stat.  

The Cowboys rush attack was great no matter which back played. The Eagles were average, with Miles Sanders taking a hit on his average EPA due to fumbling twice. Washington actually had their best rushing game of the season, though that's not saying much. The Giants, even when Barkley played, were not great on RB rushes this week.

On the other hand, Jones ran 4 times for 28 yards, two touchdowns and 2.1 EPA/attempt. 

Fun fact: Eli Manning ran for 28 yards exactly one time in his entire career.

Top Offensive Play

Daniel Jones' first career touchdown pass was the highest EPA play this week for the NFC East.  He had some help from Evan Engram's impressive speed on this 75-yard touchdown. (6.19 EPA)

Top Defensive Play

  Another Giants' first takes the top defensive play of the week, as Ryan Connelly nabbed the first turnover for the team when he picked off Jameis Winston in the 4th quarter and took them out of field goal range. (-5.05 EPA)  

Looking Ahead

The Eagles head to Green Bay on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Neither team has much to speak of in the rushing department so far, while Philadelphia has the edge in the passing game. The Packers defense has looked great so far this season, however, giving up the second-fewest total EPA in the NFL over the first three weeks. Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson's statuses remain unknown as of now, and they'll likely be the biggest story going into game day.

Washington's offense has a good chance to bounce back this week against a rough Giants defense. Head coach Jay Gruden has said that Case Keenum will keep the starting job for now, so we won't get a rookie vs rookie game quite yet. The Giants will likely look quite the opposite from their current season EPA totals, as the loss of Saquon Barkley will hurt the run game while the rise of Daniel Jones has made some big differences early in the passing game.

The Cowboys get a real test on Sunday Night Football when they head down to New Orleans. They've already got a sizable advantage in terms of passing EPA, which should only be magnified as the Saints are without Drew Brees. Teddy Bridgewater did put together a solid game against the Seahawks last week, however, and can't be counted out. Dallas also has the run game advantage, but Alvin Kamara does much of his damage in the short passing game, so the rushing stats won't tell the whole story. This should be the third competitive game of the week for the NFC East.

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Dan Morse
DAN MORSE

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