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NFC East race tightens after Week 4 EPA nightmare for Cowboys, glory for Eagles

Washington struggles, Philadelphia shines and the Cowboys go back in time.

Dan Morse

The NFC East went 2-2 this week and 1-1 in prime time games.  We got to see two very close games and one that, while it wasn't close, did give us the rookie vs. rookie matchup we've been waiting for.

A reminder about what that means: Expected Points uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play, based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA. Success rate is defined as the percent of plays with a positive EPA.

The Eagles brought an impressive offense on the road on a short week.  That's not the easiest thing to do.  Carson Wentz didn't have to carry a heavy load, as he was helped by what was easily the best rushing performance from Philadelphia this season.  Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders combined to rush for over 6 yards per carry and the second best EPA/carry of any team this week.  This all combined for 34 points against what was the second-ranked defense by EPA allowed coming into the game.

Washington vs New York was a game between two of the three worst defenses by EPA coming into Week 4, but only the Giants were able to take advantage.  Daniel Jones threw his first two picks of the year, but still maintained a respectable 0.21 EPA/pass (12th best in Week 4).  Wayne Gallman was not nearly as effective as Saquon Barkley (shocker, I know) but he did still tally two touchdowns and added more receptions than Barkley has had in a single game since November of last year.  Washington was a mess both running and passing.  Dwayne Haskins got his first regular season action, but completed barely half of his passes and threw three interceptions.  Out of 31 quarterbacks to throw a pass in Week 4, Case Keenum and Haskins finished the week as the 30th and 31st ranked quarterbacks, respectively, by EPA/attempt.

Kellen Moore called his first stinker of the season, as the Cowboys were held to just 10 points against the Saints on Sunday Night Football.  Dallas came out with a much more vanilla offense than they've had all year, especially in the passing game.  Their play-action usage was nearly cut in half from what it was in Weeks 1-3, and the offense as a whole suffered for it.  While the Saints offense wasn't exactly inspiring, their four field goals and stout defense were still enough to hand Dallas their first loss of the year.

Week 4 Top Players

week 4 passing adot

The two NFC East quarterbacks that came away with a win this week also had below average target depth.  As discussed earlier, Wentz wasn't asked to do too much, accumulating just 160 yards on 27 passes.  But he was mighty efficient with his opportunities, finishing with the sixth highest EPA/pass in the NFL. Jones also thrived on short passes, finishing with the third lowest ADoT this week.  Dak Prescott struggled against the best defense the Cowboys have played all season, though that simply dropped him to about an average EPA/dropback.  

The Washington quarterbacks struggled mightily.  Keenum threw for his highest ADoT of the year, leading to his worst EPA/dropback of the year.  Haskins was slightly less effective at a significantly lower target depth.

week 4 receiving

We can see here that Amari Cooper was Prescott's main deep threat this week, while last week's deep guy Devin Smith only saw two targets, both within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  None of the Dallas receivers with 5+ targets had an above average EPA/target.

Philadelphia got one of their top wideouts back, though Alshon Jeffery didn't produce much EPA to show for it.  Zach Ertz regained his status as a top tier tight end this week, finishing with the second highest EPA/target among tight ends with at least 5 targets, trailing only Travis Kelce.

Gallman saw an impressive 0.58 EPA/target, fourth=highest among running backs this week.  This is a big reason Daniel Jones finished with such a low ADoT.  Why throw it deep when you're seeing success with the short passes to Gallman?  On the other hand, Washington also saw success with passes to their running back.  Chris Thompson had the second best EPA/target among running backs, though most of his targets happened in the fourth quarter when the game was all but decided.  Paul Richardson's only target deeper than 6 yards downfield was picked off.

week 4 rushing

The Eagles boast the only running backs with a positive EPA/carry this week.  Similar to last week, we see an indication that rushing success is largely dependent on the team rather than the running back.  The Giants running backs were more successful than both Ezekiel Elliott and Adrian Peterson, but a fumble apiece really dragged down their EPA/carry.

Top Defensive Playmakers through Week 4

week 4 playmaking epa

Playmaking EPA is a cumulative measure of the EPA lost by an offense when a given defender makes a play (interception, sack, tackle, etc).  One quarter of the way through the season and the Cowboys' defensive playmakers are who one probably expected to see.  Leighton Vander Esch, DeMarcus Lawrense, and Jaylon Smith are all way above average at stopping the run, with Vander Esch especially making plays against the pass as well.  Washington rookie Cole Holcomb leads the East in impact made against the run, however, notching his first forced fumble this week in New York.

Top Offensive Play

There weren't any huge plays in the East for once this week.  The biggest EPA play was this 39-yard screen pass from Dwayne Haskins to Chris Thompson, which is also Haskins' longest career completion so far. (3.97 EPA)

Top Defensive Play

Dwayne Haskins also shows up during the biggest defensive play in the East in Week 4.  Haskins throw under pressure was picked by Jabril Peppers and taken 32 yards to the house for a touchdown. (-7.74 EPA)

Looking Ahead

The Eagles head back home to take on the New York Jets.  Sam Darnold remains questionable for this game, so there's a decent chance the Eagles get to face Luke Falk.  Falk is coming off of a game in which he was sacked five times by the Patriots.  Le'Veon Bell hasn't added much value to the Jets run game yet this year either.  Philadelphia looks to be heavy favorites here, especially if Darnold can't go.

The Giants are at home against the Minnesota Vikings, the team that is probably the most determined to run the ball in the NFL.  Dalvin Cook has been the most effective part of the Vikings offense, while Kirk Cousins has struggles through four weeks.  This will be a tougher test for Daniel Jones than last week, though Minnesota's EPA allowed per pass is about the same as the Buccaneers', and Jones performed well in his first start in Tampa Bay.  A strong performance from Wayne Gallman could be the difference in this one.

Washington draws the short straw this week and has to go up against the New England Patriots.   Not only do the Patriots have a Tom Brady, they've also got far and away the best defense in the league.  This will be a tough first start for Dwayne Haskins (assuming he does in fact start).

Dallas comes home this week with their number two passing attack taking on the number two passing defense in the Green Bay Packers.  The Cowboys have a significant advantage in both the passing and running game so far this season, but this will be their biggest defensive challenge of the year.  The fact that it's at home could be the deciding factor here.

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Dan Morse
DAN MORSE

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