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Week 8 NFC East Advanced Stat Preview: Washington, Vikings collide

The Prescott-Cooper connection rides again in Dallas as the East falls apart.

Dan Morse

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

What was billed as a massive Monday night battle between the Cowboys and the Eagles turned out to be kind of a dud, and it was also the only game the NFC East won in Week 7.  Let's take a look at what went wrong for three teams this week and what went so very right for Dallas.

(Reminder: Expected Points uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play, based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.)

http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores.html

http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores.html

http://airyards.com/baldwin_boxscores.html

Washington hosted San Francisco for the wettest game of the season so far.  Both offenses struggled mightily, with neither side scoring a touchdown.  By EPA, both teams looked better passing, but there really isn't much to take away from this one outside of playing in a lake is hard.

The Giants lost to the (surging?) Cardinals at home this week and were torched by Chase Edmonds.  The air raid offense of the Cardinals hasn't lit the world on fire, but it has opened up their ground game pretty well.  Saquon Barkley returned for New York, appearing to be in full health as he played a season-high 61 offensive snaps.  He wasn't able to add much to the team, however, which was hurt most on 3rd and 4th downs.  The Giants converted just 5 of 15 combined 3rd and 4th down attempts.  The end of this one fit with that narrative.  Daniel Jones took a sack on third down and threw an incompletion on fourth down to turn the ball over in the final minute of the game.

On Sunday night, in prime time, Philadelphia laid an egg.  The Eagles couldn't get any sort of offense going, and it was made even worse when juxtaposed with a Dallas offense that looked more reminiscent of Weeks 1-3.  Per Pro Football Focus, the Cowboys used play-action on the highest percentage of dropbacks since their last win in Week 3.  Their early-down passing was bad, but Dak Prescott was money on third and fourth downs.  In these situations, Prescott completed 8 of 9 passes for 6 first downs and 10.8 YPA.  This was as much a "get right" game for Dallas as it was an "uh oh" game for Philadelphia.

Week 7 Top Players

week 7 passing adot

Carson Wentz, playing from behind, was forced to throw it much deeper than he's had to the past two weeks, with largely unsuccessful results.  Prescott, who also threw one touchdown and one interception just like Wentz, was still far more successful.  As we mentioned above, Prescott's success on later downs really fueled his EPA here.

Daniel Jones' eight sacks were the biggest driver behind his bottom-5 EPA/dropback.  Arizona's defense is still one of the worst in the league, but they did get Patrick Peterson back from suspension.  Even so, this is one Jones would like to forget.

Case Keenum performed well on his 12 pass attempts, only one of which traveled more than 12 yards downfield.  Keenum finished with the lowest average depth of target (ADoT) of the week among quarterbacks to play a full game (Patrick Mahomes was the lowest this week at just 2.3 ADoT on his 11 dropbacks before leaving with a knee injury).  Again, we really can't draw too many big takeaways from a game played in a water park like this one was.

week 7 receiving

Amari Cooper made a triumphant return after seeing only three snaps a week ago.  Cooper finished the week as the fifth most efficient pass catcher by EPA/target to go along with a perfect 100% success rate, while being targeted on average 17.8 yards downfield.  This Cowboys offense is so much better when he is 100%.

The Giants Cody Latimer was the only other receiver in the division with an above average EPA/target.  Even Engram had an especially bad day, but that was mostly driven by the fact that he was technically the target of the fourth down incompletion that ended the game.

It wasn't a good day for Engram, don't get me wrong, but this is a good reminder that EPA, especially in the extremes, can sometimes be misleading.

week 7 rushing

Washington's running backs got a lot of work this week, but still didn't see much success against a dominant 49ers front.  The Eagles actually had the most successful rushers this week.  Boston Scott saw the biggest workload of his young career, which only amounted to seven carries.  The Eagles were so far behind all game that the Cowboys just didn't really have to worry about their ground game.

The big names in rushing in the division, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, saw plenty of work and similar success.  Elliott's day was better on the back of six first down carries, tied for the fourth most among running backs on the week.

Top Offensive Play

The top play on offense by EPA came on Sunday Night Football, though somewhat surprisingly it came from the losing side.  Dallas Goedert's 29-yard catch over the defender for a touchdown made this a game early on. (3.3 EPA)

Top Defensive Play

Staying in Dallas, the biggest defensive play of the week came when Xavier Woods stomped out any sign of a comeback with this fourth quarter interception. (-5.2 EPA)

Looking Ahead

Washington gets another tough matchup this week as they head to Minnesota on Thursday night to meet up with a red-hot Vikings team.  Minnesota's early commitment to the run has lessened as of late, and Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his life.  This one doesn't look any easier than last week for Washington.

The Giants will head to Detroit to take on a Lions team that is riding a 3-game losing streak, albeit with all three losses coming to really good teams.  Matthew Stafford is in the midst of what very well could be his best season as a passer, with career highs in both EPA/dropback and ADoT.  The Lions run game has struggled, however, and the loss of starting tailback Kerryon Johnson will only make that worse.  The Giants have the advantage on the ground, and will look to ride that to victory on Sunday.

The Eagles don't get an easy rebound game this week as they go on the road to Buffalo.  The Bills have relied largely on a strong defense to get to 5-1, though a ground game led by the ageless Frank Gore and the agile Josh Allen has given them a net positive rushing EPA.  Philadelphia's bottom-10 passing defense could break this game open for Allen, and Carson Wentz will need to step up to a level we haven't seen from him yet this season.

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Dan Morse
DAN MORSE

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