Week 1 EPA Power Rankings, ID'ing top new faces of 2019

Where do teams stand in terms of EPA heading into 2019 and who are the biggest offensive stars to change teams since last season?

With the NFL season kicking off Thursday night, it's important to have the proper tools to evaluate what is being witnessed on our television screens. Most power rankings are simply a reflection of which team has a best record, but wouldn't it be better if the rankings explained which are the better teams and removed subjectivity? We got you, fam.

Over the season, this list will be updated to reflect the teams with the best EPA differential in the league. Later in this article, we'll have a look at the league's top play-making defenders and which big-time point producers have new homes in 2019.

Expected Points Added uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down,distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA. 

Here, we'll be judging teams on how well their offense produces a positive EPA, and how well their defense creates a negative EPA. Here's a look at the final standings for the 2018 season.

2019 EPA Power Rankings: Week 1

Chicago's defense was unbelievably good last season, which is the main reason they came out on top of the league by EPA differential. The next four teams in terms of EPA differential were the four teams that played in the NFC and AFC championship games. At the other end of the spectrum, we find three of the four worst records in the NFL. This is all a good indicator that we are really capturing something with the total EPA differential.

Positive EPA is better for offenses, negative EPA is better for defenses

There is still a lot of talk about whether or not Mitchell Trubisky can be the franchise guy for Chicago.  Last year, his dropbacks were good enough to finish 3rd in total QBR, which was (somewhat surprisingly) largely due to his contributions on the ground.  Defenses are generally unstable year to year, but even with that regression coming, Chicago's 11th ranked offense by EPA is better than a lot of people give them credit for.

New faces in new places

A number of stars changed teams over the summer.  Which player will have the biggest impact on his new squad?  Let's break it down by position.  First up, defensive line.

In general, sacks are the go-to statistic when looking at pass rushers.  The problem is sacks, while having a huge impact on games, are not very stable for most defensive linemen.  In fact, they are generally more stable year-to-year among QBs than pass rushers.

 Pressure rate, on the other hand, is a much more stable metric that we can use to evaluate pass rushers.  

Earlier this summer, I used player-pressure rates combined with their opponent quarterback sack rates to create a metric called expected sacks (xSacks).  You can read the full explanation here.  

The basic idea is to take pass rusher pressure rates, combine it with their opposing QB's sack rate, and spit out a number that lands on the same intuitive scale as sacks, but with better stability and talent evaluation.

Still with me?  Cool.  

Let's take a look at a few of the top names from 2018 who will be suiting up for a different team in 2019.

Both Dee Ford (49ers) and Frank Clark (Chiefs) look like good extensions early on for the teams that traded for them.  This does raise the question, however, of why the Chiefs went to all the trouble of trading away Dee Ford only to turn around and trade the draft capital they gained just to pay Frank Clark all that money.  Both were above league average in xSacks/snap, with Ford putting in more snaps each season.  Assuming Clark can keep up his pace with an extra 100 or so snaps, the Chiefs pass rush should be basically just as productive as it was with Ford.

Michael Bennett is still as productive as ever even into his mid-thirties.  The Patriots continue manufacturing pass rush without paying premier pass-rusher money.  Bennett is one of a few cases where he consistently gets far more pressure than his sack totals indicate.  Since 2013, Bennett has on average finished the season with 3 fewer sacks than expected.  He's been a constant force in the backfield despite only reaching double digit sacks once in his career.

Trey Flowers should provide the Lions with about the same pass-rush productivity as Clark.  His contract came in a bit cheaper than Clark's as well, and Detroit didn't have to give up any draft capital to sign him.  He looks poised for a big year.

Jadeveon Clowney (Seahawks) and Ndamukong Suh (Bucs) were both a bit under average as pass rushers, but by no means are they liabilities.   Clowney specifically also provides far more than the rest of these guys with his run defense.

Playmaking EPA is a metric originally conceived by ESPN's Brian Burke and revived by Daniel Houston (@CowboysStats).  

It's a cumulative measure of the EPA lost by the opposing offense on plays where the defender made a tackle, forced a fumble, intercepted a pass, or in any measurable way made a play on the ball.  The above chart is the playmaking EPA gained solely when facing run plays.  Clowney not only made the most plays of this group, he was near the top of the entire league.  He'll be a decent help to Seattle's lack of pass rush, but his ability to play all three downs is going to be his largest contribution.

I don't think anyone expects too much from the quarterbacks who changed teams this year, but if you do, temper your expectations.  The only one that was really above average in 2018 was 36-year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he's not exactly in the best situation in Miami.  Josh Rosen was as terrible as his situation was last year, and he's moved on to yet another terrible situation.  Nick Foles was a bit more productive than Blake Bortles in 2018, but over their careers they are basically the same quarterback.  I don't think any of these teams are expecting their new QBs to be their QB of the future, and they shouldn't be.

Le'Veon Bell headlines the running backs on new teams in 2019, and he's also the reason I included 2017 on this plot, since he didn't play in 2018.  What might be surprising here is that Mark Ingram has actually outperformed Bell over the past two seasons in terms of EPA/carry and success rate.  This of course doesn't take into account Bell's contributions to the receiving game, however.  Ingram might be written off by some as being the product of a good situation in New Orleans, but nobody seems to be talking about the fact that he's now heading to the run-heaviest team in the league in Baltimore.  It shouldn't be surprising if he has the biggest impact on his new team among these backs.

In today's pass-heavy NFL, it's pretty unusual to see teams let go of such impressive wide receivers.  

A case could be made that Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. are the league's two best receivers.  In terms of efficiency and EPA, however, neither appears significantly further ahead than average.  The main advantage of these guys is their ability to demand such high target shares through their route running and catching ability.  Only Deandre Hopkins has had more targets over the past two years than Brown, and Beckham was on pace to be next on the list if he hadn't missed 16 games over the past two years.  

These two excel most when facing man coverage.  Per Matt Harmon's Reception Perception project, 7 of the top 10 best WR seasons in terms of success rate vs man coverage belong to either Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham Jr.  

They are, quite frankly, absurdly good when it comes to man coverage.  Of course, we now have no idea if Brown will suit up for the Raiders this season, so it's hard to predict how he will perform.  But Beckham should look even better this year, now that he's not playing with whatever is left of Eli Manning's arm.

The other receiver we need to discuss here is John Brown.  His EPA/target is actually higher than Brown's, but his success rate is significantly below average.  This is due to his average depth of target.

Throwing deep, when it works, is going to lead to better EPA.  But it's also not going to work as often.  John Brown likes to go deep.  He's heading to the Bills to work with Josh Allen, whose biggest draft trait was that he could throw a football 100 yards.  This pairing is an under the radar one that could turn out to be very fun to watch.

The reverse case of this explains why Bell has an above average success rate but a below average EPA/play.  He's always catching short passes, usually in short yardage situations.  His receiving skills should make for a good safety valve for sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold.

There are quite a few playmakers on both sides of the ball that changed teams this year, and it should result in us getting to watch some pretty fun football.

You can follow Dan on Twitter @DanMorse_

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