Should Washington Commanders Draft Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. In Second Round?

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had the game of his life in the College Football Playoffs semifinal. Should the Washington Commanders take him in Round 2?

The Washington Commanders have found themselves as the likeliest team to land the second-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. With that comes the chance to select a franchise-changing player.

It’s a momentous offseason for the new ownership group and the new front office/coaching staff combination that is likely on the way. The first order of business: get the quarterback position right.

If there is any guiding principle to this spring’s transactional chaos and the rebuild Washington is staring down, it must be to find the best possible option under center.

Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) looks to pass the ball against the Texas Longhorns during the second half of the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome / © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Huskies quarterback and Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr. made his bid for the Commanders quarterback on Monday when he lit up the College Football Playoff semifinal.

Penix put on a show, completing 29 of 38 attempts en route to 430 passing yards and two scores. He was unimpeachable and showed off NFL-level throws all night long. As a pure passer, he belongs. His Huskies went on to beat the Texas Longhorns 37-31 for a chance to play the Michigan Wolverines and win a national championship.

Such an incredible performance on the sport’s brightest stage is bound to earn Penix some fans and add to his draft stock. Even so, some remain hopeful the Commanders can add an elite non-quarterback in the first round before taking Penix (presumably) at 36. Should they?

In a word? No. In two words? Absolutely not.

Penix could end up being a franchise quarterback and make every team that passes on him look foolish. He’s incredibly talented and showcased on Monday that he can make virtually any throw asked of him.

But the NFL Draft is an exercise in probabilistic thinking. If he’s projected to fall to the second round, there’s a reason for it—in his case several. 

Penix will be a 24-year-old rookie, has four season-ending injuries to his name, and isn’t the same raw athlete that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, the consensus top arms in this class, are.

Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has once-a-decade hype and the class offers two offensive tackles bound for the top 10, too. It’s easy to say that adding one of those talents to Penix in the second round is a recipe for success. It’s also easy to kick oneself in the event one of those top two passers finds their way to New England or, even worse, New York.

Washington has been down this path before. If Justin Herbert was the second pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, this article wouldn't have been written.

Neither Maye nor (especially) Williams is a guarantee to become a franchise quarterback—nobody is. Yet, their ability to do what Penix does, and more out of structure, have landed them atop mock drafts for months. Simply put, if a team needs a quarterback, they’d rather have their pick of the litter than rely on the board falling right and a passer falling into their arms in the second round.

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Missing out on other elite talents is painful, sure. However, if the No. 2 pick is a quarterback, and he hits, nobody will care that Harrison went with the next pick.

The safest bet for the most talent possible at the quarterback position is taking the best one available at No. 2. If the front office feels that Penix fits that billing, so be it. Take him there.

Passing on a quarterback and chasing value that may not exist is the type of dealings the devil makes with bad organizations. Washington cannot go down that path if it hopes to return to relevancy anytime soon.