Commanders QB Sam Howell An 'Almost Total Gamble'

Despite the Washington Commanders' internal confidence in quarterback Sam Howell, Pro Football Focus sees the second-year quarterback as much more risk than proven potential.

Had Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell come out in the 2021 NFL Draft he'd have been one of the top selected players in his position group and analysts everywhere would have been clamoring for the opportunity to see him lead a franchise. 

One year later, however, the Commanders got Howell in the fifth round and now he's being viewed as a complete gamble, almost.

"Another almost total gamble, Howell was given one game late last season to audition for the starting job and performed well in it," Pro Football Focus writes while ranking NFL starting quarterbacks for the upcoming season. "Howell was seen as a legitimate prospect before sliding all the way to the fifth round of the 2022 draft, but expecting anything above this would be wildly optimistic."

In PFF's starting quarterback rankings Howell is No. 27 one spot ahead of presumed Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Baker Mayfield who is reportedly in a battle with third-year passer Kyle Trask for that job. 

Predictably, at No. 27 Howell is the lowest-ranked quarterback in the NFC East while the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts leads the way at No. 7,  Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys comes in No. 10, and the New York Giants' Daniel Jones is No. 17.

PFF doesn't give much information on how it came up with the rankings other than to say the quarterback evaluated for each team is the one it believes will take the most snaps in the regular season. 

That being said, it's clearly a projection over production analysis in some cases as rookie quarterback Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers ranks No. 25 despite not yet taking an NFL snap in live action, preseason, or regular.

This then begs to question of how much of Howell's ranking is because of how he performed in Week 18 against the Dallas Cowboys and in limited action during the preseason before that, and how much is based on his fifth-round draft status.

We'd submit that the latter is most likely what's driving the ranking, as it's also driving the bulk of the conversation outside of Washington when analysts wonder aloud how crazy coach Ron Rivera must be in trusting his fate to a quarterback like Howell. 

As Brock Purdy proved last season for the San Francisco 49ers though, it's not where you were picked, it's how well you perform that will dictate your stock moving forward. 

And if Howell can prove the Commanders right, he won't be weighed down by that fifth-round tag beyond this year's rankings.

Find David Harrison on the Locked On Commanders podcast or text him directly at (202) 760-2188.

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