Washington Commanders WR Jahan Dotson In Year 1: Projecting Numbers, Real Expectations

After limited receiver action the past two years, the Commanders should have high hopes for Jahan Dotson as a rookie

What should be the realistic expectations for Washington Commanders rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson in Year 1? Surprisingly, higher than the casual observer might expect. 

Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson

Dotson, the No. 16 pick in the draft, comes to Washington as a complement to Terry McLaurin. Teams have been aware for quite some time that the Commanders are limited at receiver in terms of a consistent No. 2 option. 

How so? McLaurin is a back-to-back 1,000-plus yard receiver. In 2020, tight end Logan Thomas was the only receiving option to surpass 600 yards. Running back J.D. McKissic was the No. 2 pass-catcher and still failed to tally more than 400 yards through the air. 

Washington coach Ron Rivera recently said Dotson comes with "zero questions" to his game. Scouts were invested in the Penn State receiver being a part of the team and Rivera was sold on his upside as a high-usage player from the second he turned on the tape. 

The Commanders were so sold on Dotson being an option, they elected to not even bring him in for a top-30 visit following the combine. 

"We’ve done a lot of background on him throughout," Rivera said. "We just felt like this was a guy we didn’t have any questions on, so we didn’t want to raise any flags as far as he was concerned." 

Dotson's two biggest attributes are his hands and route-running. In his final two seasons with the Nittany Lions, the 5-11, 184-pounder tallied 143 of his 183 total catches as the team's No. 1 weapon. He averaged 15 yards per catch and scored 20 of his 25 total touchdowns during the span. 

The hands are key to his growth in the pros. In four years, Dotson only recorded two drops. Both plays were on throws that were behind him. 

Speed has been another element both Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew covet in playmakers. In Indianapolis, Dotson posted a 4.33 40-time and a 1.55 10-yard split. He now joins McLaurin (4.44 40), running back Antonio Gibson (4.41 40) and slot receiver Curtis Samuel (4.31 40) as part of the quartet that wins based of their top times. 

Dotson's early expectations might be based off his role in Scott Turner's offense. The Commanders aren't ready to give up on Samuel after one season inside. Samuel was limited to five games due to lingering injuries, but is expected to be a focal point of the offense in 2022. 

Part of the reason for Dotson's success? His alignment. Most of his snaps came on the perimeter, meaning he would often line up as Penn State's "Z" receiver from the outside. 

Washington must decide what to do with McLaurin in terms of where he lines up. Should the Commanders simply have him be more in-line as the team's "X" target, Dotson should see similar production to that of Pittsburgh Steelers' Diontae Johnson. If McLaurin remains the off-ball receiver, it might take time for Dotson to develop. 

If Dotson plays his natural role off the line of scrimmage, he should become a high-end No. 2 option out the gate. Quarterback Carson Wentz wasn't afraid of spreading the ball around to different receivers last year in Indy, targeting seven players over 35 times. 

A best-case scenario for Dotson would be close to 100 receptions, over 1,000 yards and 10-12 touchdowns. The worst-case would be another Josh Doctson who never finds his footing. Then, there's the middle ground of what should be expected for a first-round receiver who isn't going to be facing the team's top defender. 

Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson

Anywhere between 50-70 catches is plausible. Finishing with 600 yards or more is probably what Rivera and Turner are expecting. As for touchdowns, if Dotson can score five or more, it's a sign of promise. 

However, keep in mind that that McLaurin has scored just nine times in two years. If Wentz isn't the answer at quarterback, whose to say it's not another limited touchdown season for the Commanders' No. 1?

Dotson has the skills to be a high-volume receiver right out the gate. He'll need to prove it, but doubling the stat line of the No. 2 option from a season shouldn't be a tall ask. 

And in all honesty, those numbers should be the bare minimum for Dotson or any healthy first-round receiver.